Hot on the trail of al-Qaeda
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The high-profile arrests of al-Qaeda operatives in Pakistan, the most recent being Abu Faraj al-Libbi, have led to intense speculation that the really big names could be next: Tahir Yuldash of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and the biggest catch of them all, Osama bin Laden.
But Asia Times Online investigations reveal that these top figures in the international struggle against the US are not together in one place, and remain a step ahead of their pursuers.
Pakistani intelligence agencies indicate that Shabkadar (a town near Peshawar in Pakistan's North West Frontier province), and Bajur and Mohmand agencies (two federally administered tribal areas) have been under close surveillance for more than a month as strong information emerged about bin Laden being in the vicinity, or in adjoining areas - Nanghar and Nooristan - across the border in Afghanistan.
In Shabkadar and Bajur especially, the Pakistani military increased its presence and conducted exhaustive search operations. These activities did not meet with any resistance as the local tribals, though sympathetic to Arab fighters, would not put themselves in a conflict situation with the Pakistani army. (This in stark contrast with the South and North Waziristan tribal areas, where similar military intervention has met with fierce and bloody resistance.) Al-Qaeda sympathizers, nevertheless, might have spread the word in advance of the operations.
According to analysis based on information extracted from detainees and ground checks in the Pakistani tribal areas, bin Laden was likely recently in Nooristan in Afghanistan for meetings with close aides. Nooristan is a rugged, remote mountainous region where the population is Salafi. The area was previously the stronghold of a famous commander of the anti-Soviet resistance of the 1980s, Abdul Aziz Nooristani, who later also fought in Bosnia. Veteran Afghan mujahideen leader and former Afghan premier Gulbuddin Hekmatyar also dwelled in Nooristan for some time after returning from exile in Iran in 2002.
Ever elusive
That al-Qaeda's top members remain on the loose can in some ways be attributed to the training cadres receive. They are well versed in withstanding interrogation and in engaging their interrogators by appealing to their religious sentiments - at least in the short term. This buys other members vital time to change their positions, an intelligence operator told Asia Times Online.
Meanwhile, there have been reports that Yuldash was sighted in the Afghan region of Birmal, where he is believed to have grouped dozens of guerrilla fighters of Chinese, Pakistani, Afghan, Uzbek, Chechen and Arab origin. They have been engaged in acts of sabotage in Paktika province, notably a recent attack on Argon in which two US soldiers were killed. US convoys and their military bases are constant targets.
Some of the world's most difficult terrain starts at Argon and continues to Birmal and then Shawal (part of which is in Afghanistan and part in Pakistan). It is wholly pro-Taliban. Guerrillas carry out attacks and then melt into the local population, either in Birmal or in the thick forests of North Waziristan across the border. Recent US bombing in North Waziristan followed guerrillas being chased by US gunships and fighter aircraft - some stray bombs and missiles landed in Pakistani territory.
Zawahiri, bin Laden's deputy, has also reportedly been seen in different places in the past few weeks, from Zabul (Afghanistan) to South Waziristan. Both foreign and Pakistani intelligence agencies conclude that the frequent sightings indicate that Zawahiri is acting as the main go-between among Arab, Uzbek, Chechen, Pakistani and Taliban fighters in Afghanistan.
These intelligence agencies believe that Khost, Paktika, Paktia and Zabul will emerge as the key hotbeds of the Afghan resistance. About a dozen murders in and around South Waziristan of pro-government tribal leaders indicate that the nerve center is again near South Waziristan.
Khost -- that sounds familiar.