Don't know but some tv speaker early this morning (may have been alan greenspan's wife on msnbc -- I cannot remember her name at all at the moment although I know it so well) said that it is about 8 weeks or so since a zawahiri communication, and that this followed the MO of other attacks following a zawahiri message. I actually thought that the last zawahiri communication was more recent, but that's what the reporter said.
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Zawahri's last tape came on June 18, so we are well within his attack-follows-speech window. Thing is Zarqawi has been quite active, and loudmouthed as well. I'm trying to remember the last time UBL spoke, I shall google.
Jihadist Forum Posting Comments about Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri Tape
By SITE Institute
June 22, 2005
A message issued yesterday, June 20, 2005, and disseminated across jihadist forums, titled: “Comments about Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri Tape,” discusses not only the meanings within Zawahiri’s video message from June 17, but the diffusion of power within the al-Qaeda leadership amongst Zawahiri, Usama bin Laden, and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and how al-Qaeda is the alleged leader of the Islamic nation.
Concerning Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri’s speech, the author provides an analysis which indicates that above all else, Islamic shari’a grants legitimacy to any political regime and “Western crusader occupation” creates an impasse to make “any amendment in the Muslim world.” Differing opinions of these Islamic laws and a clash between those who “insult America and import its ideological and political system at the same time” also harms the formation of a just Muslim government. Further, the message indicates that “inheriting the ruling powers,” rejected by Zarqawi, is counter to the Islamic political system and the acts of Mohammad’s companions; rather, shoura (exchange of opinion) is the proscribed method, not that of a “dominating system.”
The author of the message believes that the three leaders of al-Qaeda each have a scheduled order of addressing “the Muslim nation and international jihad movement,” as well as a specific purpose. Zawahiri and bin Laden, the author alleges, remind Muslims of their “shari’a duty to face the aggression and to set up the Islamic rules,” call upon Western states to stop their “aggression,” and attack American foreign policy. Zarqawi, rather, orates to “mobilize and urge for jihad” and is responsible for direct military conflict within Iraq to break the “crusader/Zionist project.” Also, concerning this al-Qaeda leadership and the organization’s purported influence within the Muslim nation the message describes a Western strategy to disturb their power, which perhaps has “render him [bin Laden] into an ineffective element, but more than that, to become a burden on the organization because he is busy at all times to secure his safety.”
http://siteinstitute.org/bin/articles.cgi?ID=publications60105&Category=publications&Subcategory=0
8 weeks is on the outside. The Zawahiri message was listed in my last summary about 3-4 weeks ago (work overload). Unfortunately, the info is not on this computer that I am on now.
Here it is from post #2080
2. Attack Indicators - America
06/25/05 Zarawhai issued a video played on Al J on 6 June 05. Although his threats were towards Egypt, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, American interests across the world should be alert. Although the no discernable act of terror was committed with the last video tape he released (February 2005), there have been significant attacks that may have been linked to the release of the messages in the past. Unconfirmed that Zarawhai said in this recent video that OBL will issue a tape shortly.
AQ / OBL
06/25/05 06/07/05 New video with Zarawhai threatening Egypt, Pakistan and S.A.