Posted on 05/30/2005 2:44:19 AM PDT by RWR8189
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Look for U.S. stocks to drift higher this week as optimism about the economy and earnings continues. But key data on the employment picture, auto and retail sales could trip up the market's momentum.
The week is likely to get off to a slow start as investors return from a long holiday weekend. U.S. stock, bond and oil markets will be closed for the Memorial Day holiday on Monday.
But activity will likely pick up when a slew of economic data hits traders' screens.
Strategists thought the market's mood was improving going into June.
"I would think portfolio managers come into June thinking that the spring rally still has a way to go," said Frederic H. Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co.
"Generally the mood of the market is a bit better," Dickson said. "We really haven't had any significant earnings warnings. That's going through the system and lifting confidence."
Oil prices will remain on the radar as the summer driving season gets under way. Crude for July delivery settled at $51.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday -- a lofty enough level to keep investors concerned about the impact on corporate profits and consumer spending.
That put a limit on stock gains on Friday, when the blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average closed up only 4.95 points, or 0.05 percent, at 10,542.55.
For the week, the Dow gained 0.67 percent, while the broad Standard & Poor's 500 Index advanced 0.80 percent and the tech-laced Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 1.43 percent.
Christopher Johnson, director of quantitative analysis at Schaeffer's Investment Research, thought markets could move higher for technical reasons.
"The market's broken through some considerable resistance levels, so from a technical perspective, some overhead room has been made to move higher," Johnson said.
JOBS AND OTHER DATA TO DRIVE TRADING
U.S. payroll data on Friday will likely be the most influential of the week's economic numbers.
The last report showed nonfarm payrolls rose 274,000 in April -- exceeding forecasts and suggesting the economy could be pulling out of its soft patch.
Economists polled by Reuters expect that 185,000 jobs were created in May. The U.S. unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady in May at 5.2 percent.
"The biggie will be the unemployment data," Al Goldman, chief market strategist at A.G. Edwards, said. "And investors don't want any surprises."
On Tuesday, when Wall Street returns to work from the holiday weekend, it will have two economic reports to chew on: The May U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board, a private research group, and the National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago index, also known as the Chicago PMI, for May.
The forecast calls for the May consumer confidence index to fall to 96.5 from 97.7 in April, while the Chicago PMI is expected to have dropped to 62.0 in May from April's 65.6, according to economists polled by Reuters.
Other key data will include Wednesday's Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index for May, with economists polled by Reuters expecting a nudge down to 52.1 from April's reading of 53.3. A number above 50 indicates growth in the sector while below denotes contraction.
The coming week "is a big week for economic reports and that is going to be the driver for the market," Schaeffer's Johnson said. "It'll be one of those weeks where one number could throw a wrench in the works."
While the earnings calendar is light, a swath of U.S. retailers will report May same-store sales figures -- a key gauge of performance -- on Wednesday and Thursday. Investors will scan the figures for signs that high gasoline prices are cutting into consumer spending, especially at discount chains like Wal-Mart Stores Inc.(WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research).
Analysts have also cautioned that unusually cold and rainy weather in May has hurt sales of spring clothing and gardening gear.
Meanwhile, on Wednesday, automakers will report their May U.S. sales. Analysts expect that General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Ford Motor Co.(F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) bore the brunt of slowing U.S. vehicle sales in May, hurt by high gasoline prices and flagging demand for sport utility vehicles.
The seasonally adjusted jobs figure is likely to be good. I am not sure why Reuters is using the word "brake" in its title.
Because they were talking about cars, get it brake. Very clever there are Reuters. But the auto industry along with the airline industry are two that are hurting and may keep stocks in check.
I love the quote about this being a little better now, as if they have been a little better for uite some time. Got to shore up that "Bush recession" myth.
More hooey from the "financial expert" in the MSM (the "say, don't you owe be a buyback?" crowd.)
And don't tell me that everybody is flipping burgers at Burger King. Seriously, does anybody know anybody working in these places except for a young kid just starting out or a retiree looking to supplement Social Security income?
You would think, by listening to the doom-and-gloomers out there, that virtually every skilled job in this country has been shipped overseas to be done by broken-English speaking Indians and Pakistanians for pennies on the dollar while highly skilled computer programmers and engineers at home are stocking Little Debbie snack cakes at the local Wal-Mart.
Well I just ain't seeing it.
What I see instead is huge traffic jams every workday of people going to work in their shiny new Lexuses and Volvos. What I see is long waits at just about every restaurant where a family of four drops $100 on dinner without a thought and mobbed shopping malls where shoppers waddle to their cars under the weight of hundreds of dollars of impulse purchases.
What I see is lines of people queuing up at the Starbucks to lay down $3 for cup of exotic coffee. Not that the Dunkin' Donuts are hurting. You still have to wait in long lines in back of people with their very complicated orders. Damn, that reminds me, I still have to go out and get my coffee before these shops get too busy with those screaming kids tugging at their fat mommies to buy them chocolate milk, honey-dipped donuts and a box full of munchkins.
So when is our economy going to collapse? Not that I really want it to happen but if it does, I at least should be able to get to work quicker, buy my coffee right away and take my family to the Outback without suffering through a 30-40 minute wait for a table while holding those infernal square-sized pagers that lights up like a flying saucer when your table is finally ready.
TDIDS.
Well.. someone had to say it.
you see help wanted (including managers) signs in every one of the stores. You left that one out.
Ahh yes, "the worst economy since Hoover". Funny how they we still hear pundits harp about a recession that wasn't even a 'dip'.
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Stock price advances typically fit the phrase "the market climbs a wall of worry", so maybe the Reuters piece is right on queue.
Your summary where you live is excellent.
We are seeing the same thing in N California inspite of the rat controlled legislature and over 5 years of Gray Davis raping and pillaging our economy.
We are finally wrapping up our every 10 year refi and redo of our house. We got the loan in Feb.. Contractors, painters, handymen, yard guys, carpet people, drapery people were booked about two to three months ahead. Our driveway (re asphalting) has been scheduled for June or July for months. The same goes for the resodding of our back yard. The final phase of our new vinyl windows was delayed due to manufacturing demands from Feb to the first week in May. We would have to kidnap a plumber to get one. Our regular contactor, a friend, whom we have known for close to 3 decades was busy until Aug when we contacted him in late Jan/Feb.. Fortunately we found another good man.
The good chain restaurants are booked solid every lunch hour and dinner. The really good restaurants are often booked at least a couple weeks to a month ahead for dinners on weekends.
My wife and I did her annual plant roundup at Target this past Friday morning. When Target opened, the store was full, and the plant section was mobbed.
Our DIL does the same thing the day after. She and I went to her local Home Depot and the plant/garden sections was packed. The parking lot was about filled. That was her second trip.
We saw the same activity during our recent 10 day vacation in Oregon. Apparently the Jihad City of Portland is still suffering, while other areas in Oregon are booming. Housing demand outside of Portland is as hot as here in N California. Restaurants, stores, gas stations and malls were full from Medford to Troutdale and back down the Oregon coast to Brookings.
Yet the gloomers and doomers in California and Oregon have daily/hourly rant of the terrible economy. They still are showing losers with their grocery carts because they can't afford gasoline.
Gasoline prices dropped here on both Friday and Saturday, which is amazing during the Memorial Day Holiday.
We have several younger relatives from the Midwest/Southwest to the West Coast who hire and fire people. All of them are trying to hire qualified people. There is basically no qualified labor pool for their needs.
My wife still works 3 days a week as an Office RN. She started her Social Security this year at age 65. She gets 5 to 8 job offers per week. She is told to name her hours and the job. I haven't worked since I turned 62, 4 years ago. I put the word out, that I'm not interested in any jobs. Yet I get about 1 offer per week, and they aren't burger flipping jobs or greeting at Walmart.
Yet Reuters, AP, CNN, and CNBC have nothing but gloom and doom and how all the bubbles are bursting.
Great chart.
It is amazing how the left wingers out here still try to blame the 2000 dip/recession on GW. I just point out to them, Clintoon was president then, and GW wasn't sworn in until 2001.
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Then they'll go on to say this worst recession ever was followed by millions of lost jobs. If you point out the low unemployment they make up some nonsense about earnings being lower. They're higher; and it's not just nominal earnings, it's even earnings corrected for inflation that are higher.
Almond, you may be just repeating what everyone's saying, but it's hard for me to take this talk about Bush's deficits with a straight face. When it comes to deficits, Bush-bashers suddenly won't talk about inflation because when you talk real money and the real economy you find that federal taxes, spending, and debt are all down.
There's no way around it. The national debt started out for Washington (the guy not the town) at $87 million. Now-a-days we like to think of that kind of dough as chump change (Bill Gates' mad money). Back then it was so huge Uncle Sam was very seriously considering default.
Right now nobody --not even a BB like Kerry or Buchanan-- is talking about the US gov't defaulting. The reason is that $7 trillion with today's economy is a lot more manageable than $87 million was back then.
Then again, logic is wasted on a Bush-basher.
Perhaps but if you look at debt over 4 years it grew far faster with Bush in terms of real dollars.. no doubt about that. At any rate I'm not a Bush basher. Many of the dollars had to be spent. What I do question is passing the Medicaid bill to name one that didn't help matters. In fact I agree with just about everything Bush has done except for the borders. And I don't think anyone is happy with what is being done on that point.
There were two reasons why the Clinton Budget wasn't in the red:
1. The republican controlled congress.
2. He and his fellow rats were making our military like Canada.
I still remember his bilge and Da$hole's re why we couldn't and shouldn't have a balanced budget. Then they took credit for it after the balanced budgets were jammed down their throats.
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We decide how much debt is OK by comparing it to how much wealth we got. As long as our wealth grows faster than our debt we're fine. We took on debt from '99 to '03 but since then our financial well-being has been improving.
A bush-basher says "look at debt from 2001 to now nya nya nya". A bush-backer says "look at average debt then and average debt now "nya nya nya". You and I might do better to step back from that kind of crap and consider 9/11, over all trends, a sense of proportion, and then count our blessings.
Plus the fact our economy is doing well after the 9/11 attacks too.
It's weird how the Dems fought welfare reform and the balanced budget in the '90's, and now they crow like it was their idea from day one.
We keep hearing about the "housing bubble". Sooner or later some bright analyst will recognize the SUV bubble. These vehicles becoame very popular with gas prices in the 1.25 -1.75/per gal range. With fuel prices rising to the 2.15-2.50 range people will question why they need a TRUCK to cart 3-5 kids to soccer or to pick up 3-4 bags of groceries. A good wagon (Volvo comes to mind) gets twice the gas mileage, has room for 5, and is much more pleasant to drive the 90% of the time there is only one or 2 people in the car.
"It's weird how the Dems fought welfare reform and the balanced budget in the '90's, and now they crow like it was their idea from day one."
Great observation. If we had an honest MSM, the rats would never get by with BS like this.
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