Here's the Deal (Why Senate Filibuster Deal Is VICTORY For Conservatives)

American Spectator ^ | May 25, 2005 | The Prowler

[PJ-Comix]

"There is no way this agreement that breaks Democratic obstruction can be spun any way other than as a victory for Republicans and the Bush Administration," said a Republican Senate leadership aide late Monday night, regarding the agreement reached by 14 senators to avert a showdown vote on the so-called nuclear option that would have ended Democratic filibustering of Bush judicial nominees.

The parameters of the deal insure that six of eight obstructed Bush nominees to the federal judiciary will receive an up or down confirmation vote in the Senate. The three most opposed Bush nominees to the court, Priscilla Owen, Janice Rogers Brown and William Pryor, will not have their nominations blocked any longer; also, three other Bush nominees will eventually receive an up or down confirmation vote as well; the only two nominees who still may be filibustered are Michigan judge Henry Saad and William Myers.

Also as part of the compromise, the Democrat moderates promise to prevent any future filibuster of Bush appeals court and Supreme Court nominees. While Democrats were able to have their "extraordinary circumstances" clause inserted in the deal, no one anticipates that such a situation will arise, assuming Democrats keep their promise. And it appears that a number of promises were being tossed around the negotiation room on Monday afternoon.

Several Republican senators involved in negotiations swore that not only will the six Bush nominees be given an up or down vote, but that Democrats in the room were aware that Republicans involved in the negotiations had agreed to vote cloture on Myers as well, and that Democratic negotiators had agreed that such a move could take place, thus also allowing Myers an up or down vote in the Senate. "Assuming that our guys hold themselves to that promise," says another Republican staffer working on the Judiciary committee, "then we're looking at a clean sweep for confirmations."

That said, Republican Judiciary Committee staffers said it would have been difficult to clear Saad for confirmation, regardless of the Democrats' unethical behavior in his case. Democratic Judiciary Committee staff and Senate Democratic leadership coordinated an attack against Saad by providing and then sending Sen. Harry Reid a memo detailing uncorroborated raw interview notes from Saad's confidential FBI background check.

"Saad has served on the bench in Michigan, he has been a public figure for years, he has had close associations with several Senate and House members from the state of Michigan," says a Washington lobbyist who has met with Saad on occasion. "This is an honorable man whose nomination was badly damaged by Democrats. Any future nominee should be aware of what the Democrats will do to destroy a good conservative."

If there are any potential losers in this deal, it is the moderate Republicans who have put their reputations on the line with not only their Republican colleagues, but also conservative voters. "If Myers doesn't get a vote, if a reasonable Supreme Court nominee does not receive a vote, or has his or her nomination blocked, then those moderate Republicans should be held accountable by not only the caucus but their constituents," said the Republican Judiciary staffer.


HOW TRUE TO THEIR word Democrats will be may become apparent in about a month, when Supreme Court Chief Justice William Rehnquist is expected to announce his retirement. Already in Washington rumors are swirling that current Attorney General Alberto Gonzales may be under serious consideration for the empty slot left vacant after one of the sitting justices is elevated to fill Rehnquist's role.. "You look at what he hasn't done in his few months at Justice," says a former White House staffer, "and it makes you think he's really been looking ahead and trying to keep as clear from controversy as he can."

Gonzales has managed to sidestep taking a position on the Terri Schiavo legal battle, and beyond stating his basic support for the eight judicial nominees in limbo, he has avoided being embroiled in this current debate. As well, he has made very few public appearances where anything remotely controversial could have been uttered.

"Everything points to a Gonzales nomination," says a lobbyist aware of the White House thinking on prospective judicial nominees.

One school of thought related to the threat of a constitutional "nuclear" option was that it would ensure the Bush White House an easier time in putting forward a solid conservative as the president's first nomination to the Supreme Court. But Gonzales would be unacceptable to just about every conservative group in Washington and beyond.

"I don't know of any conservative who worked to reelect this president who would be satisfied with a Gonzales nomination," says a Senate Judiciary staffer. "This president was reelected because conservatives want to see a conservative on the Court. If the president has a second opportunity, then perhaps there is room for Gonzales. But only after the president fulfills his promise to voters."

[UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide]

Do you have anything to offer but rhetoric?

How about $25 to DeWine's son's opponent in the OH 2nd special election (June 14) and being the first to bring that opportunity to send a message to several talk hosts last night?

[Coop]

No reason to insult me - you don't even know me

You're right, I don't know you personally. But I know conservatives as a rule, and I have no problems with my statement. You may whine about being attacked or insulted all you like. I'll still sleep well.

[Coop]

Here's why...the Pubbies still think the senate is the local country club-where rule changes can be debated for months and years on end, clever wagers and per hole bets being part of the pleasure and enjoyment of such. The Democrats all play politics like they're born in Hell's Kitchen. Were the Democrats in the same position, and Reid or Daschle the majority leader, this nonsense would have been done and over by 9:01 am January 21st, and the President's nose rubbed in it for the next weekby the MSM, and Hillary Clinton the next Chief Justice by noon.

Alrighty then.

[harpu]

Thanks for sharing...

[Coop]

No, no. Thank YOU!

[standupfortruth]

Democratic Judiciary Committee staff and Senate Democratic leadership coordinated an attack against Saad by providing and then sending Sen. Harry Reid a memo detailing uncorroborated raw interview notes from Saad's confidential FBI background check.

This is, at the very least, a Senate ethics violation on the part of Harry Reid. He has no right as Minority Leader to see this information.

[A Balrog of Morgoth]

Hey Pollyanna,

Nobody is talking suicide here. Some of us are upset because, once again, the usual handful of GOP-at-election-time-only suspects have flown the coop.

You'd think it would possible that with 55 of 100 Senate seats in Republican hands, we might some nominees onto the Senate Floor. That's not an unreasonable assumption, is it?

I mean, it's not like some of these same Senators just ran in an election seven months ago. I vaguely remember the President mentioning something about judges during the campaign. Maybe just once or twice, but I'm sure he didn't bring it up at every single campaign stop. I can see why they wouldn't consider it important to support the President, and that's ok, since his re-election had absolutely nothing to do with judicial appointments. It was, as I recall, all about making sure that the other important work of the House of Lords got done on an amicable basis.

Bottom line: Whether this thing, through some happy coincidence actually ends up working in our favor, that doesn't change the fact that these seven are not conservatives, they didn't do it to win a victory for conservatives, and they agree with Harry Reid et al that the president's nominees really are out of the mainstream. Fortunately, since they are political opportunists, they allowed us to get three nominees to make themselves look like statesmen.

And one more thing. Seeing the old Chicken Little strawman get tossed into the fray everytime we get upset at the latest RINO Lucy-won't-pull-the-football-away-this-time stunt really gets tiresome.

[Coop]

Hey Pollyanna, Nobody is talking suicide here.

Hey Chicken Little, sure you are.

[Coop]

You'd think it would possible that with 55 of 100 Senate seats in Republican hands, we might some nominees onto the Senate Floor. That's not an unreasonable assumption, is it?

And you did. One will be confirmed today.

[alnick]

Senate Democratic leadership coordinated an attack against Saad by providing and then sending Sen. Harry Reid a memo detailing uncorroborated raw interview notes from Saad's confidential FBI background check.

People should go to jail for that. Isn't it illegal?

[Carolinamom]

I'm not alone in my customer resistence. Charles Krauthammer, Tony Blankley, Thomas Sowell, and WSJ....high cotton thinkers...are equally cynical. Down the road...favorite place for the can to land...we'll see.

[Fenris6]

And Lindsay Graham is on record saying he'll vote for the nuke option if the Dems break the deal....

Thats enough for me. I see the pro/con of this deal, but knowing that Graham is part of it makes me breath easier. He's still got principles.

[savedbygrace]

If you believe Graham and Dewine, they would've voted for ending the judicial filibuster, and still will vote that way if needed.

That means Frist had the votes, with VP Cheney's tie-breaker.

So, that leads us to the question: Why did the seven make this deal? Think about it - Frist had the votes. Well, the Dims were madder'n a hornet's nest that Frist had the votes, so they were threatening to "shut down the Senate". Why would that make the situation any different for the seven RINOs than for the rest of the pubbies?

The seven RINOs all know their power in the Senate comes nearly 100% from the fact that Frist can never count on their votes for any conservative bills. That means, Frist (or whoever is riding herd over a particular bill) has to make a deal of some sort in exchange for a vote from the RINOs.

If the Senate's business was effectively shut down for an extended period of time, the RINOs' power would be zilch. That's why they made this deal, to retain their little corner of power.

At this point, if the Dims break the deal and Frist pulls the trigger, and the judicial filibuster goes down, the Dims will be claiming that they didn't break the deal, and they will shut down the Senate. Do you really think the RINOs are going to sit still and watch their power slip away?

[Coop]

You'd think it would possible that with 55 of 100 Senate seats in Republican hands, we might some nominees onto the Senate Floor. That's not an unreasonable assumption, is it?

I'm not a big Graham fan, but I'd say he has more principles than most around here.

[Paine in the Neck]

"Look, if the 3 nominees now declared to be "acceptable" are the standard, then any judicial nominee Bush puts up in the future who is just as conservative as these three must also be considered acceptable and can't be filibustered under this agreement"

Logically speaking, this is correct. However, it fails to figure the dems' ability to turn logic on its head. If they see the need, they will brush aside the precedent of having approved these judges (and, btw, these candidates haven't been confirmed yet).

[Bloody Sam Roberts]

The optimistic view is all based on the dims keeping their word and being reasonable in the future. There is no good reason to think they will do so.

Exactly. The only thing you can count on from them is that they will not follow the rules or be true to their word. And if chicanery doesn't get them what they want, they'll change the rules again.
I expect to hear a lot of whining in the future from the left side of the aisle about "I never signed that agreement".

[Alberta's Child]

But if the Democrats don't hold up their end of the bargain, there's no way in hell those seven GOP senators would go along with them. Maybe one or two would, but for most of them (particularly Graham, Warner, and DeWine) it would be political suicide for them to stand up and publicly side with the Democrats in the U.S. Senate and uphold a filibuster against a Bush nominee.

If you have any doubts about that, just look at how utterly invisible Arlen Specter -- one of the most liberal members of the U.S. Senate from either party -- has been in this whole thing.

[A Balrog of Morgoth]

And you did. One will be confirmed today.

Wow, that's great. No, really, it is.

Three nominees.

What a victory for conservatives. The Democrat obstructionists have been massacred in a fashion reminiscent of "Jenjiss Kaaaaahhhhnnnn".

Funny how none of the GOP Senators, at least the ones who don't regularly wander off every time the Dems show them a shiny object, seem to be in a cheerful mood.

[Fenris6]

Well, I still feel like we blinked - not sure Frist can build the momentum to challenge this again, and I know that the for the Dems, exceptional circumstances is a very loose term. OTH, three of our nominees are finally getting a floor vote.

My solution: Frist notifies the Executive Branch that the Senate has abdicated its constiutional duty to advise & consent. They can vote yes or no, but not abstain by hiding out in the girl's bathroom. If the Dems continue to obstruct procedure and process, then Bush's entire slate bypasses the Senate, without constest.

[A Balrog of Morgoth]

Hey Pollyanna, Nobody is talking suicide here.

Hey Chicken Little, sure you are.

Right. Noting that RINOS have once again behaved as RINOS....that's suicide.

The glass may be half full, but it's got a turd in it. And that turd is not going away no matter how many times you wish it away. There will be a filibuster of a nominee. That nominee will not be a far rightwing religious nut. We'll see if our precious moderates are as good as their word then. We'll see if the seven Democrats are as good as their word then.

We'll see how fourteen opportunists define the words "extraordinary circumstances"