Science does not waste its time calculating the probability of things that have already happened. Science searches for the causes.
There is scarcely anything of any consequense that has not been attributed to the intervention of gods. Storms, earthquakes, diseases, crop failures, crop successes, happiness, unhappiness, fertility, infertility, islands rising from the sea -- all have been attributed to intervention.
Science is that form of inquiry that starts with the assumption on nonintervention, and seeks to find regular patterns of causes.
Should I gather then, that science has no business examining the geologic column and extrapolating from the evidence backward as to what might have happened to cause it's present condition?