The hammer won't fall today. Try to be patient. Frist is going to give the DEMs all the debate they need to make their point. That is figured to take a few days. Starting tomorrow, or more likely Friday, he will start to ask unanimous consent to take the vote.
I speculate that he will never call for cloture, but will ask each DEM who objects to the vote to express why they object to the nominee, and since they know how they will vote on the nominee, it makes sense to move to the vote. No need for cloture if every Senator knows how they will vote on the nominee.
I found this:
http://webreprints.djreprints.com/1231360309215.html
It is a WSJ article on Jay Sekulow's activities on the issue, along with some expectations.
The article says esentially what you said:
"Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist and Minority Leader Harry Reid yesterday gave up attempts to reach a compromise on the matter. A bipartisan group of moderates, however, worked furiously to broker a deal that would see approval of some of the stalled nominees in exchange for leaving the current rules intact. Last night, those senators were still trying to hammer out final language on statements that would seal the deal.
If they fail, the showdown is expected to begin when one of the stalled judges—most likely Texas Judge Priscilla Owen—is called up for a final floor vote. Democrats vow to conduct a filibuster. Mr. Frist may allow it to go on for several days. Then Mr. Frist is expected to move to shut it down through a series of parliamentary maneuvers that will end with a vote on whether a filibuster on a judicial nominee violates Senate rules."