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"Then in the fall, look out below."

I'm not quite sure what you mean. Higher or lower prices?

Some people analyze charts instead of facts. One of the simplest chart patterns for some to interpret is the "head and shoulders" pattern Looking at the chart above, if oil were to fall to ~$40/bbl and then climb back to around $50 over the next few months, the chart would look like a "head" around April 1st and two lower peaks (or "shoulders") a few months on either side.

This is supposed to be the sign that the bottom is about to fall out of the market and it's going to fall (perhaps back down to the $25 range). Don't put too much stock (pun intended) in this kind of analysis for something like oil. But I expect we WILL see lower prices shortly.

Exactly. I'm not a chartist. I think oil prices are going to fall because I have tracked the reasons for their rise since 9/11, and my conclusion is those reasons were largely political fears and speculation, not economic realities. (Supply has consistently outstripped demand with these prices, stockpiles are building not dwindling, there is no actual shortage, etc). The economic side - which can last, IMO, - only justify a modest price increase from base levels. I just noticed from the posted chart how a chartist would read it, and related that information.

ok I got it. Thats exactly what I thought. Supply is not a problem. There is still the problem of not enough refineries here but that should soon change. In the mean time I too believe the market will stabilize and prices should be back to maybe just 10 to 15 percent over pre-9/11 figures.