We shoot the first nuke, and we wont have a snowballs chance in hell anywhere.
Same goes if they fire nukes first. That is what kept the Soviets from attacking us or invading western europe. Would china launch any nukes at us? depends on how sane their leaders are and how willing their military is do die for communism/neo-fascism. It worked against the Soviets. Time will tell if it works agaist the ChiComs.