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Leave it to a professional mathematician to write something that gloomy! Just shoot me now....
1 posted on 05/10/2005 5:34:14 AM PDT by .cnI redruM
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To: .cnI redruM

--unfortunately, he is completely correct--


2 posted on 05/10/2005 5:51:41 AM PDT by rellimpank (urbanites don' t understand the cultural deprivation of not being raised on a farm:NRABenefactor)
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To: .cnI redruM

Something to consider.


3 posted on 05/10/2005 5:58:17 AM PDT by KDD (http://www.gardenofsong.com/midi/popgoes.mid)
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To: .cnI redruM
Scalia, remember, was the first Italian-American justice, and was nominated partly for that reason. I doubt there will be ever be another conservative on the Court

This guy seems to have some contempt for religion and as for conservative SCOTUS Justices, did Clarence Thomas disappear into thin air? I don't know but maybe Mr. Derbyshire considers Justice Thomas as 3/5ths of a Justice and thus his ignoring him.

4 posted on 05/10/2005 6:01:11 AM PDT by Dane ( anyone who believes hillary would do something to stop illegal immigration is believing gibberish)
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To: .cnI redruM

ping


5 posted on 05/10/2005 6:03:36 AM PDT by swissarmyknife
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To: .cnI redruM
a belief in established institutions and hierarchies.

He can forget about that. I've never held a belief in this, and never will.


6 posted on 05/10/2005 6:03:43 AM PDT by rdb3 (To the world, you're one person. To one person, you may be the world.)
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To: .cnI redruM
The socialists are working "feverishly" to turn out the light,once and for all time.

The effort is being led by the the captains of industry, the elite with the money.

7 posted on 05/10/2005 6:04:22 AM PDT by cynicom (<p)
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To: .cnI redruM
A Picture of the Author:


Shall I go rust in the corner or shall I just fall apart right here?

8 posted on 05/10/2005 6:40:14 AM PDT by Reaganesque
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To: .cnI redruM

I was liberal during primary season in 2000, but the blame falls squarely upon us voters. In 2008 need to nominate a principled conservative who will take an F'ing chainsaw to the federal government.

Otherwise, we are getting what we deserve.


9 posted on 05/10/2005 6:40:24 AM PDT by Jibaholic (The facts of life are conservative - Margaret Thatcher)
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To: .cnI redruM

All the more reason to fight even harder. The sooner the welfare state collpases, the better. And it will collapse of its own weight eventually.


11 posted on 05/10/2005 8:44:33 AM PDT by TBP
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To: .cnI redruM; wardaddy
Maybe Derb is right or maybe he is wrong? Of course, he could also be DEAD WRONG like David Frum who claimed, in his ~1994 book Dead Right, that the Conservative Movement was intellectually bankrupt and condemned to perpetual political impuissance. Yup, that book came out right before the the Contract with America and the Gingrich Revolution. Talk about bad timing.
13 posted on 05/10/2005 9:07:59 AM PDT by bourbon (quasi morientes et ecce vivimus!)
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To: .cnI redruM

People are confusing gains by the Republican Party with gains by Conservatism. Even the Left confuses the two. But Republican gains have been achieved by moving away from Conservatism and toward an early 60's JFK-style Democratic Party philosophy: hawkish on defense, free-spending, conservative on some social issues, activist on race relations, using tax policy for social engineering, advocating open borders, and having little to no interest (or even antagonistic toward) the expansion of personal liberty and free markets.


14 posted on 05/10/2005 9:19:42 AM PDT by Mr. Jeeves ("Violence never settles anything." Genghis Khan, 1162-1227)
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To: .cnI redruM

"We are living in the twilight of conservatism."

Yes, we are.

Even some people on here who claim to be "conservative" simply haven't realized yet that they have more in common with liberals.


15 posted on 05/10/2005 9:56:56 AM PDT by nmh (Intelligent people recognize Intelligent Design (God).)
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To: .cnI redruM
Bright and thoughtful -- but with negligible campaign experience -- Derbyshire mixes valuable insights with anachronistic nonsense and reflexive pessimism. Take the first four paragraphs whole, but junk the rest. Here is a political strategery look at the subject.

Properly seized and vigorously advocated, the issues of crime, immigration, and cultural defense could bring the Tories to power in Britain for a full generation. Even if the Tories are so feckless as to shrink back from that approach, the current UK political balance is far more tenuous than it looks.

The impending Labor lurch to the Left, the next recession (there always is a next recession), and proposed structural changes (the EU and the Euro, English nationalism versus Scottish and Welsh nationalism, and electoral reform) will put a lot of contentious issues on the table. Labour's run of favorable political weather will not last because no political party is ever immune to the vagaries of fortune. (Special note to Mr. Derbyshire: mathematicians call the principle "regression from the mean.")

Conservatism in the US is in much better shape politically than in Britain. Crime is less salient here, but cultural issues are a major conservative strength and have broken through the establishment media wall. Unlike Britain, conservatives in the US have made tax cuts a winning issue. Immigration is white hot with the public and could win conservatives a massive victory in the next Presidential election -- and let us hope that conservatives take the lead before Hillary does.

Derbyshire also overlooks some of the Tories' unique handicaps:

(1) the dominating presence of the Left-allied BBC -- the US equivalent would be having PBS and NPR run most radio and TV news;

(2) the current Tory leadership's pitifully weak campaign skills -- think of country club Republicans at their cringing, inept, three martini worst;

(3) the screwy British system of multiple parties and choosing members of Parliament with pluralities -- the US equivalent would be winning a dominating majority in a state legislature or the US House based on districts won by general election vote percentages in the 30's;

(4) the lack of term limits for Prime Ministers, which permits a skilled and fortunate Prime Minister and party to unnaturally extend their hold on power based on incumbency, familiarity, and gratitude for past performance rather than on current issues and policies for the future;

(5) the absence of open party primaries and relative lack of elected offices in Britain when compared to the US, which provides a far wider scope for the development of new leaders and ideas -- thus sparing Republicans from the staleness that afflicts the Tories;

(7) the absence of a Christian Right in UK politics -- and the relentless marginalization of traditional Christians in British life; and

(8) that the Tories have still not recovered from the damage they did themselves by knifing Thatcher and installing the hapless John Major and his herd of pygmies -- which was oddly similar to the way that the Bush I crowd displaced the Reaganites in Republican circles in the late 1980's and early 1990's.

In the long run, neither Left nor Right have a permanent lock on political power in Britain or the US. But they do best when: (1) they have politically sharp leaders, campaign strategists, and operatives; (2) they energize and remain loyal to their political base and philosophy, while also developing new issues, constituencies, and coalitions; (3) govern well when in power; and (4) press for changes and reforms that institutionalize successes and energize the country's political life in a favorable manner.

In a modern democracy, when you do those things better than the opposition, you get to run the country. Simple in concept, but hard, hard, hard, in practice.
16 posted on 05/10/2005 10:01:14 AM PDT by Rockingham
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To: .cnI redruM

Mr. Derbyshire needs to come here and chat with some of the younger Tories, and some of the younger MPs such as Greg Hands and Justine Greening - they do understand very well that the state needs to be rolled back further. Iain Duncan Smith took a first stab at saying this by suggesting that the NHS is gotten rid of and replaced with an insurance system.

The Thatcherites are not dead, nor have we run out of steam - what happened was that when we lost our leader, we were largely, too young to take over leadership of the party immediately. The bland, grey coterie of Mrs. Thatcher's opponents took control. Michael Howard was an improvement, but it's time for the next generation to emerge - and slowly but surely, they are.

Regards, Ivan


17 posted on 05/10/2005 10:05:31 AM PDT by MadIvan (One blog to bring them all...and in the Darkness bind them: http://www.theringwraith.com/)
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To: .cnI redruM
The best line from the British election came the Sun's "endorsement" of Labour: "When the Tories start acting like Conservatives, they might deserve our support." If the Conservatives had showed they would have actually reduced the size the government, they would have done better.

In the United States, the Republican Party is increasingly becoming the second big government party. When they stop acting like conservatives, they will not deserve our support.
20 posted on 05/10/2005 4:26:01 PM PDT by JohnBDay
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To: .cnI redruM
An intriguing hypothesis that deserves more attention. Unfortunatly if you look at the history of Toryism in the 18th and 19th centuries you'll find that "a deep suspicion of the power of the state" wasn't one of it's most important characteristics. It certainly wasn't more significant than "patriotism, a belief in established institutions and hierarchies, or skepticism about the idea of progress." That was true down until the rise of Labour, or even to the Thatcher days, so it's no accident British Conservatives are returning to form.

America was different, but thirty years ago Nixon was trying to follow the Disraelian pattern over here as well. So it's not unheard of if today's conservatism accepts big government more readily than Goldwater or Reagan did. Politicians look for the middle ground. The surprising thing is that the middle ground now is so much more free market than it was in Eisenhower's or Nixon's day.

BTW, you can take the boy out of England, but can't take England out of the boy:

Roman Catholicism is more intellectually substantial, but no more necessarily conservative, in the Burkean sense, than Free Silver evangelism. Does the Roman Catholic church really have deep, ancient roots nourished by the concepts of liberty and individual autonomy? When and where, exactly, did those roots first become visible? During the Inquisition or the Armada? Under the Bourbons or the Hapsburgs? In Franco's let's-ignore-the-20th-century Spain or Eamonn de Valera's nasty, corrupt little people-exporting "confessional republic"? Yes, yes, the late John Paul II, bless his memory, made up for a great many of those things; but that only brings to mind how very much there was to make up for.

Do Buckley's and O'Sullivan's successors pay the hoary old Brit by the number of anti-papist lines he writes?

21 posted on 05/10/2005 4:54:53 PM PDT by x
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To: .cnI redruM
Does the Roman Catholic church really have deep, ancient roots nourished by the concepts of liberty and individual autonomy?

Well, yeah.

Here's what it says about socialism

But, in order to understand fully what Socialism is and what it implies, it is necessary first to glance at the history of the movement, then to examine its philosophical and religious tendencies, and finally to consider how far these may be, and actually have proved to be, incompatible with Christian thought and life.

And here is what it says about "individualism"
Political Individualism.

Considered historically and in relation to the amount of attention that it receives, the most important form of individualism is that which is called political. It varies in degree from pure anarchism to the theory that the State's only proper functions are to maintain order and enforce contracts. In ancient Greece and Rome, political theory and practice were anti-individualistic; for they considered and made the State the supreme good, an end in itself, to which the individual was a mere means.

Directly opposed to this conception was the Christian teaching that the individual soul had an independent and indestructible value, and that the State was only a means, albeit a necessary means, to individual welfare. Throughout the Middle Ages, therefore, the ancient theory was everywhere rejected. Nevertheless the prevailing theory and practice were far removed from anything that could be called individualism. Owing largely to the religious individualism resulting from the Reformation, political individualism at length appeared: at first, partial in the writings of Hobbes and Locke; later, complete in the speculations of the French philosophers of the eighteenth century, notably Rousseau. The general conclusion from all these writings was that government was something artificial, and at best a necessary evil. According to the Social Contract theory of Rousseau, the State was merely the outcome of a compact freely made by its individual citizens. Consequently they were under no moral obligation to form a State, and the State itself was not a moral necessity. These views are no longer held, except by professional anarchists. In fact, a sharp reaction has occurred. The majority of non-Catholic ethical and political writers of today approach more or less closely to the position of ancient Greece and Rome, or to that of Hegel; society, or the State, is an organism from which the individual derives all his rights and all his importance. The Catholic doctrine remains as always midway between these extremes. It holds that the State is normal, natural, and necessary, even as the family is necessary, but that it is not necessary for its own sake; that it is only a means to individual life and progress.

Moderate political individualists would, as noted above, reduce the functions of the State to the minimum that is consistent with social order and peace. As they view the matter, there is always a presumption against any intervention by the State in the affairs of individuals, a presumption that can be set aside only by the most evident proof to the contrary. Hence they look upon such activities as education, sumptuary regulations, legislation in the interest of health, morals, and professional competency, to say nothing of philanthropic measures, or of industrial restrictions and industrial enterprises, as outside the State's proper province. This theory has a much smaller following now than it had a century or even half a century ago; for experience has abundantly shown that the assumptions upon which it rests are purely artificial and thoroughly false. There exists no general presumption either for or against state activities. If there is any presumption with regard to particular matters, it is as apt to be favourable as unfavourable. The one principle of guidance and test of propriety in this field is the welfare of society and of its component individuals, as determined by experience. Whenever these ends can be better attained by state intervention than by individual effort, state intervention is justified.

It is against intervention in the affairs of industry that present-day individualism make its strongest protest. According to the laissez-faire, or let alone, school of economists and politicians, the State should permit and encourage the fullest freedom of contract and of competition throughout the field of industry. This theory, which was derived partly from the political philosophy of the eighteenth century, already mentioned, partly from the Kantian doctrine that the individual has a right to the fullest measure of freedom that is compatible with the equal freedom of other individuals, and partly from the teachings of Adam Smith, received its most systematic expression in the tenets of the Manchester School. Its advocates opposed not only such public enterprises as state railways and telegraphs, but such restrictive measures as factory regulations, and laws governing the hours of labour for women and children. They also discouraged all associations of capitalists or of labourers. Very few individualists now adopt this extreme position. Experience has too frequently shown that the individual can be as deeply injured through an extortionate contract, as at the hands of the thief, the highwayman, or the contract breaker. The individual needs the protection of the State quite as much and quite as often in the former case as in any of the latter contingencies. As to state regulation or state ownership of certain industries and utilities, this too is entirely a question of expediency for the public welfare. There is no a priori principle -- political, ethical, economic, or religious -- by which it can be decided. Many individualists, and others likewise, who oppose state intervention in this field are victims of a fallacy. In their anxiety to safeguard individual liberty, they forget that reasonable labour legislation, for example, does not deprive the labourer of any liberty that is worth having, while it does ensure him real opportunity, which is the vital content of all true liberty; they forget that, while state control and direction of certain industries undoubtedly diminishes both the liberty and the opportunity of some individuals, it may increase the opportunities and the welfare of the vast majority. Both individualists and non-individualists aim, as a rule, at the greatest measure of real liberty for the individual; all their disagreement relates to the means by which this aim is to be realized.

As in the matter of the necessity and justification of the State, so with regard to its functions, the Catholic position is neither individualistic nor anti-individualistic. It accepts neither the "policeman" theory, which would reduce the activities of the State to the protection of life and property and the enforcement of contracts, nor the proposals of Socialism, which would make the State the owner and director of all the instruments of production. In both respects its attitude is determined not by any metaphysical theory of the appropriate functions of the State, but by its conception of the requisites of individual and social welfare.

22 posted on 05/10/2005 8:56:13 PM PDT by Tribune7
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To: .cnI redruM

This is a pretty good esay. I disagree with his portrayal of the Evangelical movement though. It's much stronger than he realizes. It isn't about Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell. There are millions of Bible believing and biblically knowledgable Christians out here that have a very solid foundation to our conservatism. We have a secret weapon. Prayer.


23 posted on 05/10/2005 9:38:09 PM PDT by mercy (never again a patsy for Bill Gates - spyware and viri free for over a year now)
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To: .cnI redruM

"We are living in the twilight of conservatism."

I'm not going away. Anyone here going away?


24 posted on 05/10/2005 9:39:56 PM PDT by righttackle44 (The most dangerous weapon in the world is a Marine with his rifle and the American people behind him)
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To: .cnI redruM
We are living in the twilgiht of socialsm.

So goes GM so goes the United States. Untied Airlines, Delta, going down the tubes. The debt is approachin $9 Trillion.

Reality sucks, doesn't it ?
27 posted on 05/10/2005 10:28:13 PM PDT by John Lenin (The truth is the opposite of whatever Dan Rather says it is)
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