Twilight of Conservatism. We are living in false hope.

NRO ^ | May 10, 2005, 8:02 a.m. | John Derbyshire

[.cnI redruM]

Leave it to a professional mathematician to write something that gloomy! Just shoot me now....

[rellimpank]

--unfortunately, he is completely correct--

[KDD]

Something to consider.

[Dane]

Scalia, remember, was the first Italian-American justice, and was nominated partly for that reason. I doubt there will be ever be another conservative on the Court

This guy seems to have some contempt for religion and as for conservative SCOTUS Justices, did Clarence Thomas disappear into thin air? I don't know but maybe Mr. Derbyshire considers Justice Thomas as 3/5ths of a Justice and thus his ignoring him.

[swissarmyknife]

ping

[rdb3]

a belief in established institutions and hierarchies.

He can forget about that. I've never held a belief in this, and never will.

[cynicom]

The socialists are working "feverishly" to turn out the light,once and for all time.

The effort is being led by the the captains of industry, the elite with the money.

[Reaganesque]

A Picture of the Author:


Shall I go rust in the corner or shall I just fall apart right here?

[Jibaholic]

I was liberal during primary season in 2000, but the blame falls squarely upon us voters. In 2008 need to nominate a principled conservative who will take an F'ing chainsaw to the federal government.

Otherwise, we are getting what we deserve.

[SoothingDave]

My colleague Ramesh Ponnuru pointed out the other day that there has been no conservative elevated to the U.S. Supreme Court without an assist from identity politics since 1972! Scalia, remember, was the first Italian-American justice, and was nominated partly for that reason.

This guy seems to have some contempt for religion and as for conservative SCOTUS Justices, did Clarence Thomas disappear into thin air? I don't know but maybe Mr. Derbyshire considers Justice Thomas as 3/5ths of a Justice and thus his ignoring him.

Words mean things. "Without an assist from identity politics" is the key phrase.

SD

[TBP]

All the more reason to fight even harder. The sooner the welfare state collpases, the better. And it will collapse of its own weight eventually.

[Pyro7480]

LOL! He is a bit like Marvin the Paranoid Android.

[bourbon]

Maybe Derb is right or maybe he is wrong? Of course, he could also be DEAD WRONG like David Frum who claimed, in his ~1994 book Dead Right, that the Conservative Movement was intellectually bankrupt and condemned to perpetual political impuissance. Yup, that book came out right before the the Contract with America and the Gingrich Revolution. Talk about bad timing.

[Mr. Jeeves]

People are confusing gains by the Republican Party with gains by Conservatism. Even the Left confuses the two. But Republican gains have been achieved by moving away from Conservatism and toward an early 60's JFK-style Democratic Party philosophy: hawkish on defense, free-spending, conservative on some social issues, activist on race relations, using tax policy for social engineering, advocating open borders, and having little to no interest (or even antagonistic toward) the expansion of personal liberty and free markets.

[nmh]

"We are living in the twilight of conservatism."

Yes, we are.

Even some people on here who claim to be "conservative" simply haven't realized yet that they have more in common with liberals.

[Rockingham]

Bright and thoughtful -- but with negligible campaign experience -- Derbyshire mixes valuable insights with anachronistic nonsense and reflexive pessimism. Take the first four paragraphs whole, but junk the rest. Here is a political strategery look at the subject.

Properly seized and vigorously advocated, the issues of crime, immigration, and cultural defense could bring the Tories to power in Britain for a full generation. Even if the Tories are so feckless as to shrink back from that approach, the current UK political balance is far more tenuous than it looks.

The impending Labor lurch to the Left, the next recession (there always is a next recession), and proposed structural changes (the EU and the Euro, English nationalism versus Scottish and Welsh nationalism, and electoral reform) will put a lot of contentious issues on the table. Labour's run of favorable political weather will not last because no political party is ever immune to the vagaries of fortune. (Special note to Mr. Derbyshire: mathematicians call the principle "regression from the mean.")

Conservatism in the US is in much better shape politically than in Britain. Crime is less salient here, but cultural issues are a major conservative strength and have broken through the establishment media wall. Unlike Britain, conservatives in the US have made tax cuts a winning issue. Immigration is white hot with the public and could win conservatives a massive victory in the next Presidential election -- and let us hope that conservatives take the lead before Hillary does.

Derbyshire also overlooks some of the Tories' unique handicaps:

(1) the dominating presence of the Left-allied BBC -- the US equivalent would be having PBS and NPR run most radio and TV news;

(2) the current Tory leadership's pitifully weak campaign skills -- think of country club Republicans at their cringing, inept, three martini worst;

(3) the screwy British system of multiple parties and choosing members of Parliament with pluralities -- the US equivalent would be winning a dominating majority in a state legislature or the US House based on districts won by general election vote percentages in the 30's;

(4) the lack of term limits for Prime Ministers, which permits a skilled and fortunate Prime Minister and party to unnaturally extend their hold on power based on incumbency, familiarity, and gratitude for past performance rather than on current issues and policies for the future;

(5) the absence of open party primaries and relative lack of elected offices in Britain when compared to the US, which provides a far wider scope for the development of new leaders and ideas -- thus sparing Republicans from the staleness that afflicts the Tories;

(7) the absence of a Christian Right in UK politics -- and the relentless marginalization of traditional Christians in British life; and

(8) that the Tories have still not recovered from the damage they did themselves by knifing Thatcher and installing the hapless John Major and his herd of pygmies -- which was oddly similar to the way that the Bush I crowd displaced the Reaganites in Republican circles in the late 1980's and early 1990's.

In the long run, neither Left nor Right have a permanent lock on political power in Britain or the US. But they do best when: (1) they have politically sharp leaders, campaign strategists, and operatives; (2) they energize and remain loyal to their political base and philosophy, while also developing new issues, constituencies, and coalitions; (3) govern well when in power; and (4) press for changes and reforms that institutionalize successes and energize the country's political life in a favorable manner.

In a modern democracy, when you do those things better than the opposition, you get to run the country. Simple in concept, but hard, hard, hard, in practice.

[MadIvan]

Mr. Derbyshire needs to come here and chat with some of the younger Tories, and some of the younger MPs such as Greg Hands and Justine Greening - they do understand very well that the state needs to be rolled back further. Iain Duncan Smith took a first stab at saying this by suggesting that the NHS is gotten rid of and replaced with an insurance system.

The Thatcherites are not dead, nor have we run out of steam - what happened was that when we lost our leader, we were largely, too young to take over leadership of the party immediately. The bland, grey coterie of Mrs. Thatcher's opponents took control. Michael Howard was an improvement, but it's time for the next generation to emerge - and slowly but surely, they are.

Regards, Ivan

[.cnI redruM]

Who do you think gets elected after Howard?

[MadIvan]

It's difficult to tell - we are not likely to have a new Tory leader until late autumn at the earliest. Offhand, of the older generation, David Davis appears to be the best organised - sound politically, but not exactly inspiring. An offbeat choice would be Theresa May. There is talk of the new shadow chancellor, George Osbourne becoming the leader, but I think he's not well known enough...yet.

The hope I have at the back of my mind is that Greg Hands can get well known in the interim and becomes a contender in what is a very short time.

Regards, Ivan

[JohnBDay]

The best line from the British election came the Sun's "endorsement" of Labour: "When the Tories start acting like Conservatives, they might deserve our support." If the Conservatives had showed they would have actually reduced the size the government, they would have done better.

In the United States, the Republican Party is increasingly becoming the second big government party. When they stop acting like conservatives, they will not deserve our support.