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To: unseen

From what I have read, you can't deduce human to human transmission with the facts coming out of Turkey.

Looks like bird to human transmission going on here.


2,250 posted on 01/07/2006 4:37:29 PM PST by TheLion
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To: TheLion
Maybe this will change your mind...


10 Member Familial Cluster in Turkey Raises Pandemic Concerns

Recombinomics Commentary
January 6, 2006

As H5N1 bird and human outbreaks spread across Turkey, the initial clusters provide compelling evidence that H5N1 spread to humans has become more efficient. Although disease onset dates have not been released for most patients, media reports provide somewhat of a chronology of admission dates for the Ozkan family. The admission dates, names, and ages of family members are:

January 4

Hatice (15)
Aysegul (9)
Yusuf (3)

January 5

Rumeysa (1)
Mehmet (13)
Ahmet (11)
Mustafa (6)

January 6

Refica (33)
Hakan (15)
Rukiye (?)

The disease onset dates for the first three family members admitted would be most useful, because it is likely that there was a delay between disease onset and admission. The other seven family members probably developed symptoms closer to their admission date, because the first three family members had already been hospitalized and the news of the other cases from the same village was likely known.

The 10 family members, if confirmed to be H5N1 positive, would double the previous number of confirmed H5N1 patients from the same family, which was a family of five from Haiphong in March of 2005.

More details on the clinical picture, including disease onset dates, would be useful, but this large cluster, coupled with the clustered nature of the other patients admitted to the same hospital in Van, indicates H5N1 transmission to humans has become more efficient.


http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01060604/H5N1_Turkey_Cluster_Ozkan.html

or this:

Large and frequent familial clusters signal efficient H5N1 transmission, either from a common source or human-to-human transmission. Information on disease onset dates would help distinguish the two possibilities, but the clusters indicate transmission to humans is efficient, regardless of source.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01060602/H5N1_Turkey_Clusters.html

or several stories from China and Indonesia. Family Clusters, geographic cluster(Indonesia zoo), and work place clusters all point to a H2H pathway. While we have been lucky to some aspects most of these cluster pathway do not seem very efficient in spreading that appears to have changed in Turkey. Yet in a previous post I stated that all news from closed societies like China and Vietnam should be suspect. They will not tell you the whole truth due to economic and geopolitical reasons. thus with this virus you must be able to put 2 and 2 together to get 5 due to the fact that key pieces of informant ion is missing. Large family clusters, very quick bursts of infection point to H2H transmission. What I would like to ask is what it will take for the Who to acknowledge the H2H transmission. Looking at their statements nothing short of a full blown epidemic will convince them that H2H transmission is occurring and by then it is too late to stop the pandemic.
2,252 posted on 01/07/2006 6:21:49 PM PST by unseen
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