Avian Flu Surveillance Project

Various ^ | May 9, 2005 | Vanity

[Dog Gone]

Some folks suggested that we begin a thread similar to the Marsburg Surveillance Project for monitoring developments regarding Avian Flu.

The purpose is to have an extended thread where those interested can post articles and comments as this story unfolds.

If we're lucky, the story and this thread will fade away.

[King Prout]

what is this disease's etiology?
how, exactly, does it kill?

[unseen]

Well at least now we are pretty sure it was spread by the birds. If rural lumbermen got it then it had to be spread by birds. I would say the birds infected the hogs also. Kansas in 1918 had a large number of migratory birds in the Great plains.

[redgolum]

Good question. Most of the human cases kill by high fever and respiratory distress. I am not sure that the 1918 "cyclotin" storm (I know I didn't spell that right) has been seen yet.

I will try to get more information. Part of the problem is that this is at worst at stage 5, so we are not really sure what the human version will look like.

[unseen]

I agree. I watched the Fox news the Factor last night and Bill had on the former head of the NYC health department. Bill used the number of 8 million dead worldwide. This is the lowest number out there. Bill was playing this down. I was actually saying over and over again during the segment No that is wrong. The MSM are plainly behind the ball on this one. The MSM are playing this down. Why? I don't know. On one hand you have the President saying to prepare and on the other you have the MSM saying it is overblown. But the news coming out of Indonesia, China and now Europe is not good. Continued clusters of infection are still occurring. The virus seems to have become milder which is good but at the same time it gives it time to spread under the health watchers radar and possible reemerge in a more virulent strain. Personally, I think the President has the best information in the world and if He and his HHS director are saying this virus is coming prepare I think he knows something we don't maybe in China which has had a news blackout since the bird die off. The CIA could be intercepting some troubling news out of China. But Indonesia is the problem right now. The steady migration of birds from Russia to Europe is another pathway of this virus. ALL the signs point to a problem happening soon possible has early as this winter possible next spring but soon.

[unseen]

For the record, the Y2k never concerned me because I was working in the computer field and saw first hand the level that companies where going to to solve the problem. Likewise the SARS did concern me somewhat because of the high mortality rate but my concern was not great because it was not transmitted well between people. Also the overwhelming response of governments was spot on. That being said this virus scares the hell out of me. Any flu spreads unchecked. It spreads easily and swiftly. It can not be stopped. We have no cure and the drugs are becoming less effective as we speak. The governments in Asia are more concerned with economic issues then with stopping the virus. It has become endemic to the area so people are less concerned with it now. The MSM are playing it down like it is a political move by the President to take some heat off of him from Katrina or something.

[Jim Noble]

am not sure that the 1918 "cyclotin" storm (I know I didn't spell that right)

Cytokine.

[King Prout]

If respiratory distress and hight fever are the prime lethal effects, I would think therapeutic measures available here in the US would blunt the lethality of this critter.

[EBH]

I am referring back to my post from several days ago. I am extremely alarmed by the Romanians admitted that they are and have started vaccinating PEOPLE, not the chickens(#1647, #1648). They are vaccinating some 125,000 people over the next few days. This is the first I've heard of anyone actually implementing the vaccine to prevent the spread of avian flu.

The article doesn't indicate which vaccine they're using either. Are these Poultry workers, first responders, general population for the area...just who is this 125,000? And if it is still not transmissible person to person why is the vaccine being used now? I can readily understand poultry workers getting the vaccine due to the close contact with potentially infected birds. If anyone gets further information in regards to who is being vaccinated in Romania please post it for me. THX.

[EBH]

I caught part of an interview last night with Brit Hume. The man he was interviewing was visibly having difficulty softening his responses to the questions. In some questions Brit seemed to try to dismiss his answer and they guy very gently tried to guide him back to the truth.

I think the MSM is trying to not be the ones accused of starting a panic. They've been pretty badly beaten up over Katrina and the over-exageration of coverage of events, that I think they are afraid to push the envelope on this. As Brit said there was no evidence of human to human transmission, so the gov.t over reacting?

[redgolum]

If respiratory distress and hight fever are the prime lethal effects, I would think therapeutic measures available here in the US would blunt the lethality of this critter.

Defiantly. The only worry is what happens when millions of people get the flu at the same time. The health infrastructure could run out of resources fast.

[THEUPMAN]

1918 had a large number of migratory birds in the Great plains


1918 was also the end of the war to end all war .... it was the first time in history that the population of the world shifted in mass.... buy that I mean, so many people traveling so far , so fast ... There was also a lot of carnage and desolation in parts of the world.

I'm not so sure that didn't have a hand in the 1918 event.

[EBH]

The entire Tulcea county, most of it a sparsely populated region in the Danube's marshlands and canals, has been placed under quarantine, with authorities disinfecting all cars coming in and out of the county and an animal transport ban in effect for the region. The Health Ministry began a massive flu vaccination campaign in the Danube Delta and neighboring areas. Some 3,400 people in the area have already been vaccinated and over 13,000 people were immunized by yesterday afternoon with the numbers expected to reach 125,000 in the coming days, said Romanian health chief Rodica Costinea. Meanwhile, 1,500 birds were killed as a precaution in eastern Romania, but authorities said no new cases of bird flu had been confirmed yet. Some 40,000 domestic birds are expected to be killed in the coming days, with owners receiving compensation from the government. Also, several animal fairs, meat processing centers and slaughterhouses were temporarily closed down. "I think it's better to take these preventive measures now," said Prime Minister Calin Popescu Tariceanu, who led a special crisis government meeting on Sunday. Similar measures have been taken in Turkey. (excerpt)

Romania awaits confirmation of bird flu strain

[The_Reader_David]

Do we actually know how lethal the bird flu stain is? There have been deaths in Asia, but is there a reliable estimate of how many people have been infected? And how was it obtained?

I remember the Swine Flu hysteria which pervaded the government back in the 1970's.

I suppose epidemiology has advanced since then, but unless one knows how many have been infected one can't get an estimate of lethality.

[Iowa Granny]

Judith Anne's elderberry
calcium citrate
mucosil or mucomyst - over the counter

Today might be a good day to repost this info. I've been reading thru the thread looking for the elderberry recipe, but haven't found it yet.

bitt, thanks for maintaining the ping list. I hope you understand what a valuable service you're providing. Many, Many Thanks, FRiend.

[Dog Gone]

The threat from avian flu has finally gotten the full attention of the Administration. That's good because it can't be ignored.

However, it's somewhat unsettling because it confirms that those of us who have been following this virus for many months are not imagining things and the threat is very real. There can be no satisfaction in being correct.

[Iowa Granny]

#1694 was for you, Judith Anne. Sorry about the typo, it went thru without question, so now would probably be the appropriate time to apologize to judithann

[bitt]

I am not available enough to keep this full time! A concerted effort is best! EBH is the best!!!

doggone, I wish the 'admin' of FR would add this to the top of the forums page or to the sidebar as a keyword...can you ask them?

~~~~~~~~~~ from another thread:

"I am an RN for 25 years now...what's new about this flu vs any other kind of flu we've had for the past decades? Nothing. All flu can cause people to be very sick or even die..so WHY IS BIRD FLU ANY DIFFERENT?"

"Because H5N1 does not just infect ciliated respiratory epithelial cells.

It has an antigen complex which attaches to alveolar cells directly, causing bleeding and pulmonary edema. Humans who get infected die in 72 hours from respiratory failure, and the mortality rate appears to be 50-70%.

You are quite right to decry the hype, because there are as yet no tertiary cases. The organism has been studied since 1997, and no change in its sporadic nature (in humans) has yet been seen.

But it is a fearsome pathogen when it does infect humans, quite unlike the human-adapted strains we usually see. That's why it's different.

46 posted on 10/11/2005 7:34:46 AM EDT by Jim Noble

[blam]

I was thinking about how to prepare for a quarantine if the military is assigned to quarantine my/your city.

Presumably they (the military) would be in charge of making sure supplies made it to the cities, and, I think that that would only include essentials, no booze, cigarettes, coffee, chocolate, just about anything imported from abroad and who knows what else.

I was also thinking about who would get the first supply of vaccines: doctors/nurses (and their families), politicians (and their families), national guard/military, transportation workers...and so on. Anyway you slice it, you and I are on the bottom of any list when the vaccines are administered. So, I'm trying to think as if I'm on my own...which will be the case if this thing is severe.

[Judith Anne]

If respiratory distress and hight fever are the prime lethal effects, I would think therapeutic measures available here in the US would blunt the lethality of this critter.

H5N1 goes deeper into the lungs than other flu viruses. Jim Noble had an excellent explanation:

It has an antigen complex which attaches to alveolar cells directly, causing bleeding and pulmonary edema. Humans who get infected die in 72 hours from respiratory failure, and the mortality rate appears to be 50-70%.

My translation: The alveolar cells are the ones where the actual oxygen-carbon dioxide transfer takes place--where oxygen is delivered to the cells. If they are damaged, then the victim very quickly becomes very sick. This damage is different from the damage caused by ordinary flu, which affects lung tissue on the surface (epithelial), mostly.

Jim, I put your explanation from elsewhere in italics above. If I've misinterpreted, or gotten it wrong, please correct me, and thank you. ;-D

[OB1kNOb]

Bookmark for reference.