Posted on 05/09/2005 10:18:08 AM PDT by Dog Gone
Some folks suggested that we begin a thread similar to the Marsburg Surveillance Project for monitoring developments regarding Avian Flu.
The purpose is to have an extended thread where those interested can post articles and comments as this story unfolds.
If we're lucky, the story and this thread will fade away.
OMG.
Published Date 03-AUG-2005 Subject PRO/AH/EDR> Streptococcus suis, porcine, human - China (04) STREPTOCOCCUS SUIS, PORCINE, HUMAN - CHINA (04) *********************************************** A ProMED-mail post <http://www.promedmail.org> ProMED-mail is a program of the International Society for Infectious Diseases <http://www.isid.org> Sponsored in part by Elsevier, publisher of Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene <http://intl.elsevierhealth.com/journals/trst> Date: Wed 3 Aug 2005 From: ProMED-mail <promed@promedmail.org> Source: People's Daily Online [edited] <http://english.people.com.cn/200508/03/eng20050803_199959.html> One new death of pig-borne endemic reported in Sichuan ----------------------------------------------- The death toll of the pig-borne endemic in southwest China's Sichuan Province had reached 37 as of Tue 2 Aug 2005, with one new death reported, according to the Chinese Ministry of Health. Although no new cases were reported, 8 retrospective cases were found. Among them, 5 were confirmed and 3 suspected, said the ministry in a latest report. The province has so far reported 205 cases of swine _Streptococcus suis_ type 2, with 159 confirmed and 46 suspected. 18 people have been discharged from the hospital, and 29 others are in critical condition. The endemic broke out late in June 2005 and has now been pinpointed in 10 cities, including Ziyang, Jianyang, Neijiang and the provincial capital Chengdu. All the patients had direct contact with ill or dead pigs.>snip<
Diagnosis of _S. suis_ infection in both pigs and humans is based upon culture of the organism from normally sterile sites and should not be difficult. Clinical details from the current outbreak (both from the pigs and the humans) are thus far lacking and it is therefore difficult to assess whether some co-infection (or other co-morbidity) may be accounting for this unprecedented cluster of human disease. - Mod.LM
H5N1 and Ebola Recombinants in Qinghai and Sichuan
Recombinomics Commentary
August 2, 2005
The spread of H5N1 along Russia's southern border and the increased toll in Sichuan province form the mysterious pig disease, demand more transparency from China who claims to have never had a human case of H5N1 and a fatal pig disease due to a relatively benign bacterium.
Boxun reports indicate that China has several strains of H5N1 and Ebola capable of causing human disease. Although sequence data for the early Qinghai isolates were published, China has failed to share samples from live birds or bird flu isolates beyond the 12 collected in May. Similarly, samples from Sichuan appear to be lacking. Sichuan is adjacent to Qinghai, suggesting a possible linkage.
Boxun reports also describe an industrial accident and use of the wrong treatment as part of the problem in Sichuan. The are also rumors of problems caused by an adenovirus vectored hog cholera vaccine. There many be several viruses involved, including an Ebola recombinant.
Thus, there clearly appear to be too many viruses in the area that could recombine and create a new entity. Ebola and H5N1 share a region in common that could allow for recombination between the two viruses. Having Ebola and H5N1 co-circulating creates a potentially volatile situate. This situation could be exacerbated by an adenovirus vectored vaccine because adenovirus also has homology to this region, as does African swine fever virus.
Thus, the boxun report describing recombinants could be referring to many different combinations including Ebola and H5N1 or either one plus adenovirus linked of hog cholera virus.
To resolve these issues, samples must be provided. China has created a genetically unstable environment.
Denials of human H5N1 infections or creation of new bacterial diseases are not acceptable.
http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=6077
This is an article from July 28th. Very good and quotes Dr. Niman towards the end. It is the best I've read, so far, at explaining what is going on in China.
A must read IMHO.
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H5N1 Bird Flu Spreads to Tomsk Region In Russia
Recombinomics Commentary
August 3, 2005
Onishchenko, who also heads Rospotrebnadzor, the federal service for the Protection of Consumer Rights and Human Welfare, chaired a conference with veterinary authorities from the Tomsk, Omsk, Novosibirsk, and Tyumen regions and the Altai territory.
"It's in these districts that confirmed or unconfirmed deaths of poultry were reported," Onishchenko said, adding that he had invited his colleague from Kazakhstan to take part in the conference, after reports of bird flu cases in that country.
"We'll be discussing our further preventive measures. Local laboratories will be supplied with necessary equipment shortly, to be able to run tests on their own, without having to send samples for analysis to Moscow," he added.
The above comments add the Tomsk region to the list of regions or territories in Russia with confirmed or unconfirmed deaths of poultry. Tomsk is north of Novosibirsk and the first region listed that does not border Kazakhstan. It is north of Chany Lake, which is ringed with towns and villages reporting outbreaks. In the past, H5 has been detected in birds at Chany Lake. However, the prior H5 isolates were closely related to H5 from Europe, while the latest bird flu outbreaks were caused by H5s from Asia.
In addition to the five regions listed above, Russian media reports have cired addition bird die offs in Altaskiv Kray, which lies between Altai and Novosibirsk. There are also reports of dying birds in Kurgan, which is west of Tyumen. This there are six contiguous regions along Russia's southern border (shared with Kazakhstan), that have reported outbreaks. The addition of Tomsk creates a wider path from China to Europe along Russia's southern border.
In Kazahkstan, only deaths in Pavlador's Irtysh District have been reported in the media and OIE. However, it seems likely that there are deaths in all of Kazakhstan's northern regions, which would include East Kazakhstan, North Kazahkstan, Qostany, and possibly Aqmola, which is just south of North Kazakhstan.
The poultry outbreaks define a wide path that is expanding west and has reached the Ural Mountains, indicating H5N1 will soon be in European Russia.
In Europe, the migratory paths turn south in the fall, and lead to the Caspian and Black Sea areas.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/08030501/H5N1_Tomsk_Spread.html
Recombinomics Commentary
August 3, 2005
Up to 70 percent of waterfowls in Vietnam's southern Mekong delta have been tested positive to bird flu virus strain H5N1, local newspaper Labor reported Wednesday.
Local veterinary agencies culled 4,620 poultry, mainly ducks and chickens, after they detected small outbreaks of bird flu in capital city Hanoi and the three southern localities of Can Tho, Ben Tre and Dong Thap last month, the country's National Steering Committee on Anti-Bird Flu was quoted as saying in the report.
The comments above are similar to an earlier report indicating 71% of ducks in the Mekong Delta were H5N1 positive. That earlier survey sampler all 11 provinces. This latest report indicates H5N1 is endemic to southern Vietnam. In the south, virtually all confirmed H5N1 confirmed human cases have been fatal, including the two last week. In contrast the fatality rate has fallen to less than 10% in the north, where another recovering patient was reported this week.
These rates could dramatically change, as birds begin to migrate back to Vietnam. The Qinghai lake outbreak involve a lethal H5N1 that was Amantadine sensitive, but had the PB2 E627K polymorphism, which had never been seen previously in avian H5N1. A related H5N1 is racing across southern Russia and about to spread through Europe.
These new sequences can recombine with other flu sequences, especially in southeast Asia and probably China, where H5N1 has become endemic.
It is likely that these new sequences will cause new problems in the upcoming weeks.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/08030502/H5N1_Mekong_70.html
I cannot thank you enough for your post. The historic evidence is that overwhelming sepsis, viral OR bacterial, causes a condition called DIC which has a clear and alarming hemorrhagic presentation.
Although some reports say that Ebola (an RNA virus) has recombined with H5N1 (also an RNA virus) in patients "unlucky enough to have both", I also sincerely doubt there is much of an Ebola presence in China, or Crimean Hemorrhagic Fever, either.
I actually think 99% of the "mystery illnesses" in China at varying locations at present are the myriad symptoms of overwhelming H5N1 infection, along with whatever pathogen the Avian Flu patient also happens to be carrying at the moment.
In other words, a patient could have an asymptomatic Strep suis infection, then get Avian Flu on top of it. As you have said, doctors in 1918 mistook the flu for various othe diseases, including dengue and typhoid, WITH GOOD REASON--they didn't look like ordinary flu.
If a Chinese has a mild case of Ebola or Crimean fever (don't laugh, there is such a thing) then it is possible that a superimposed infection with Avian Flu could bring about a recombination event.
Who knows? But I suspect STRONGLY that there are far fewer diseases than it looks like at present, and that it will all likely sort out to be Avian Flu with maybe a few really dangerous genes added to some strains...
Just my opinion.
I think you nailed it.
Thanks for the vote of confidence, but I hope nobody thinks I'm an authority. Just what I've come up with, thinking, reading, discussing here and elsewhere.
See post 1203.
There have been other posts about Ebola on this thread too.
However, Judith Anne's model suggests that it may be a small effect.
Wow!! I think you are starting to sort this out.
A question though, because it was not clear from your comments. Is the model:
1. Widespread streptococcus suis and widespread Avian Flu that just happen to both be present in many animals. The strep suis is aysmptomatic and the symtoms are entirely due to Avian Flu. However, when the animals are tested, they test positive for the strep suis, so it is assumed that that is the causal factor.
-or-
1. Widespread streptococcus suis and widespread Avian Flu that just happen to both be present in many animals. Normally the strep suis is asymptomatic but in the case of a dual infection with Avian Flu, the immune response is suppresed by the Avian Flu and you have the symptoms from both.
Thus, there clearly appear to be too many viruses in the area that could recombine and create a new entity. Ebola and H5N1 share a region in common that could allow for recombination between the two viruses. Having Ebola and H5N1 co-circulating creates a potentially volatile situation.
It still seems that Recombinometrics believes that the Avian / Ebola hybrid is possible and is manifesting. The question then becomes whether this scenario is the more probable, or whether Judith Anne's model of Avian Flu superimposed on other infections is the principal cause.
The first model is definitely possible, maybe even probable.
The second model--I think that Avian Flu causes a vigorous immune response, and in the case of those victims who develop cytokine storm, a deadly vigorous immune response.
Incidently, for those reading here I want to point out that there is solid research showing that Haldol (yes, the major tranquilizer antipsychotic HALDOL) is useful in treating cytokine storm, more so than prednisone or other steroids. Google can point to many articles about this.
Please please please put that info about Haldol in the back of your mind. You never know if it might be useful, especially if someone you love has that kind of response to the flu. Cytokine storm can kill. Haldol may help treat it.
Since Avian Flu and Ebola are both RNA viruses, I suppose it is possible that some "unlucky person" (as another poster called the potential victim elsewhere) could have them both, they could recombine, and a dreaded superbug could run amok.
But I think that the DIC hemorrhagic response to Avian Flu is much more likely. On the other hand, there are reported to be some strange sequences in the few samples obtained...
JUST MY OPINION! I am no expert, and I did NOT sleep at a Holiday Inn last night: It's Avian Flu. And it's awful. Looks a lot like other illnesses in the initial presentation, just the way the 1918 flu did.
Thank you. The picture does seem to be very confused and I am unsure of the credibility of the Boxun reports. Avian flu is scary enough on its own without worrying about flu/ebola hybrids.
Re your link in Post #1204... good article with a lot of additional information.
An Uncle of mine died in 1918 of that flu. He was a cadet at West Point and he is buried there. From what I've been reading here and on the Marburg surveillance thread, there is a vast difference between the petechia of 1918 and the petechia seen in various serious illnesses and the diffuse bruising being seen today where there is disintegration of tissue and bleed out often before the patient gets to pneumonia. In many cases the body has dissolved within 3 or 4 hours postmortem.
Last year, China, in vested uranium interest, did send peacekeepers into the region of Angola (where an outbreak started as a Marburg variant that appeared more like Ebola.) At the time I wondered if they were there to collect samples as well.
I suspect there is much overlap of the various epidemics with recombination which might have mother nature's hand in it but then again might have been partially man made. I do think it is in wildlife, especially birds (look at that map posted by Oorang) but there needs to be broad testing to find out what other critters are shedding this and China isn't about to be open with info.
Russia's national poultry quarantine speaks volumes.
The Marburg samples collected in Angola were confirmed Marburg by the CDC, in the US. The CDC was the first place to get samples.
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