Posted on 05/09/2005 10:18:08 AM PDT by Dog Gone
Some folks suggested that we begin a thread similar to the Marsburg Surveillance Project for monitoring developments regarding Avian Flu.
The purpose is to have an extended thread where those interested can post articles and comments as this story unfolds.
If we're lucky, the story and this thread will fade away.
This is a map made (I think) by penguinzee on the Agonist.org website, Infectious Disease forum.
Thanks for posting it.
Moscow Times: Bird Flu Strain Can Infect Humans (August 1, 2005)
Bird Flu Strain Can Infect Humans - official confirmation
By Jim Heintz
The Associated Press
Investigators have determined that a strain of bird flu virus infecting fowl in Siberia is the type that can infect humans, the Agriculture Ministry said Friday.
The virus caused the deaths of hundreds of birds in the Novosibirsk region this month, but no human infections have been reported.
In a brief statement, the ministry identified the virus as avian flu type A H5N1. "That raises the need for undertaking quarantine measures of the widest scope," the statement said.
Ministry officials could not immediately be reached for elaboration.
Strains of bird flu have been hitting flocks throughout Asia, and some fatal human cases have been reported there.
Since 2003, bird flu has killed at least 57 people in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia, which reported its first three human deaths this month.
The outbreak in the Novosibirsk region apparently started about two weeks ago when large numbers of chicken, geese, ducks and turkeys began dying. Officials say that all dead or infected birds were incinerated. But it is unclear whether that would effectively stop the virus from spreading.
An animal health expert at the Rome-based UN Food and Agriculture Organization said it was still not known how many birds had been exposed. Birds can be "reservoirs, animals which are infected but not showing clinical signs" of the virus, Juan Lubroth said.
Lubroth, a veterinarian, said the concern was whether birds that appeared healthy might have the virus. "If you're a sick bird or a dead bird, you're not migrating anywhere. Sick birds don't fly," he said. Thus, samples should be taken of birds that look healthy, he said.
He called for greater international funding to prevent infection to humans by setting up laboratories and epidemiology studies. "We don't see the donor community coming together" on the bird flu fight, he said.
Earlier in the week, Russia's chief epidemiologist, Gennady Onishchenko, said the appearance of the virus in Russia could be due to migrating birds that rest on the Siberian region's lakes.
A recent report released by the journal Science said the finding of the H5N1 infection in migrant birds at Qinghai Lake in western China "indicates that this virus has the potential to be a global threat."
The reports echo concerns voiced by the World Health Organization, which urged China to step up its testing of wild geese and gulls. A WHO official estimated that the flu had killed more than 5,000 wild birds in western China.
The outbreak was first detected about two months ago in bar-headed geese at China's remote saltwater lake, which is a key breeding location for migratory birds that spend the winter in southeast Asia, Tibet and India. The virus has hit that species the hardest, but it also affects brown-headed gulls and great black-headed gulls.
Dick Thompson, a spokesman for the World Health Organization in Geneva, said, "We would hope that these samples would be sent to a WHO international reference lab outside the country. This is standard for verification."
"To confirm that it is H5N1, it is important that these tests are done outside the country," he said.
What is that map of?
Judith Anne found the map and said:
"It's a map of Asia with Avian Flu outbreaks in birds by date, posted by penguinzee on the Agonist.org website, Infectious Disease forum.
I think it's an excellent visual to show the spread...most of those locations are going to have pig cases and human cases if they don't now."
Start packing your freezer with meat now.
That map had me alternately praying and spewing purple invective! I hope you put that on the TM.
Silly you! That belongs on the Avian Flu Preparation Project thread!
(*just kidding, can you tell I need a nap?*)
I need a hibernation...I keep thinking about Dr. Wang's bubonic ebola flu (BEF with mystery X.)
A British pharmaceutical firm states that they have developed a vaccine for the deadly H5N1 virus, commonly known as the avian bird flu.
The vaccine is unique in that it is DNA-based, as other bird flu vaccines are derived from a developing egg. This proves beneficial, as egg-produced vaccines can take up to six months to produce, while the latest DNA vaccine can be produced at a much faster rate. Dr Clive Dix, CEO of PowerMed, the manufacturer of the vaccine, believes that if necessary, 150 million vaccines could be produced in three months. Dix also states that another advantage of the vaccine is its ability to adjust to any mutations present in the bird flu, as it would take a simple alteration in the genetic code to adapt the vaccine.
The avian bird flu has already claimed the lives of over 50 people throughout Southeast Asia, and has been the cause of the mass slaughter of livestock to prevent the disease from spreading. While the virus cannot be spread easily via human contact, experts believe it is possible that mutant form of the virus could create a global pandemic.
John Oxford, professor of virology at Queen Mary's School of Medicine, considers it vital that pharmaceutical manufacturers develop different types vaccines immediately so that the world is prepared in case of a bird flu pandemic.
"The cupboard is pretty bare at the moment so it is important these companies develop the vaccines."
http://www.mydna.com/resources/news/200508/news_20050802_bflu.html
The World Today - Tuesday, 2 August , 2005 12:26:00
Reporter: Karen Barlow
ELEANOR HALL: The rapid spread of the deadly Asian bird flu virus is sparking concerns about the effectiveness of the international containment protocol.
The highly contagious strain of avian flu has now turned up in poultry stocks in Siberia and Khazakstan, and some health authorities say it's only a matter of time before the disease hits European Union countries.
Russian doctors have been quick to blame migratory birds flying in from infected regions of China. But bird experts say an illegal trade in poultry cannot be ruled out as the source of the latest outbreak, as Karen Barlow reports.
KAREN BARLOW: In a bid to halt the spread of bird flu, all domestic birds in a western Siberian region will be slaughtered today. That's thousands of geese, chickens and ducks from more than a dozen villages.
Just over the border in Kazakhstan, the cull has been underway for days, and a bird transport ban has been imposed on the affected areas.
The virus was first detected two weeks ago in the area, and the World Health Organisation is still yet to confirm that it is the highly contagious strain of the virus, H5N1.
The WHO's Bob Dietz is in Manila.
BOB DIETZ: You know, everyone is aware of the seriousness of this virus and I think people are reacting to it very quickly. Any one specific outbreak of course might pop up in some place we didn't expect.
We know this virus to be active in… across Asia, okay? We know it's been in Korea, in Japan, in South East Asia, in China. We know that in some places it's been taking lives in some places it's only been attacking poultry flocks or in some instances, wild fowl.
KAREN BARLOW: Russia Health Officials have been quick to blame migratory birds, such as cormorants, gulls and bar-headed geese for the outbreak.
But Australian migratory bird expert, Professor Richard Kingsford of the University of New South Wales, says that's not the only explanation.
RICHARD KINGSFORD: Well, it's a bit questionable, isn't it? These birds are likely to fairly sedentary at the moment because they're in their breeding season, so they're not doing big movements.
So you would expect if we're seeing a whole lot of outbreaks that these have somehow got into those birds and been latent for some time in those populations before they're actually exhibited.
So what I think we're seeing, we may be seeing that some of these birds are contracting this virus as they work their way up through some of these really infected areas.
KAREN BARLOW: The import of poultry products is banned from infected countries.
But Professor Kingsford says he suspects that an illegal trade has been going on between Russia, Kazakhstan and infected areas of China.
RICHARD KINGSFORD: Well, I would imagine that people may be moving poultry between borders. It may well be that as far as getting between different countries with people moving across the borders, it's still, I think, the big question is whether humans are in fact a greater potential source of this virus.
In fact it may be that these geese are contracting the virus from reservoirs of poultry in different parts of northern Europe and Western China, and I guess from a conservation point of view, it's a real worry for some of these populations that are clearly going to be all but wiped out where they're breeding in these colonies.
KAREN BARLOW: Well, yes, there's such fear about this flu that there are reports of Russian poultry farmers trying to shoot down migratory birds.
RICHARD KINGSFORD: Yeah, which I guess is a bit like holding back the tide.
KAREN BARLOW: Bob Dietz from the World Health Organisation says migratory birds are the prime candidates for transmission, but he admits infected countries are not secure.
BOB DIETZ: There is always poultry trade, it's usually a very vigorous one throughout Asia. There's no magic bullet here. There's no quick solution. You would think this is human beings acting, we can all act rationally.
Well, there are many factors pressing on the situation, there are economic concerns, personal concerns, political concerns, as well as the concerns about threat of disease. And you have to look at this as a whole situation.
ELEANOR HALL: And that's Bob Dietz from the World Health Organisation ending that report from Karen Barlow.
British understatement! Wonder how many years it will take for the FDA to approve this vaccine (doesn't sound like they have even conducted human trials yet)? Also, I wonder if the FDA's approval system is set up to handle a vaccine that is continually "adjusted" to track genetic changes in the virus?
I have been reading this thread but I am having difficulty sorting out the issues here. It seems, at least from initial data, that we do not have one epidemic (i.e. H5N1, but possibly several). The way I count them is: (please comment and correct)
1. We have the H5N1 Avian Flu that so far primarily affects birds. Future threats are large scale human infection and also, separately, the destruction of poultry and pigs.
2. There is Ebola in China. Moreover, we have multiple strains of Ebola in China. Therefore, there seems to be a lot of it.
3. There is apparently a variant of Avian Flu that has genetic similarity to Ebola. Indeed, in one posting it was reported that 18 nucleotide pairs were identical. The implication is that this was a hybrid variant, perhaps caused by genetic recombination of Ebola and Avian Flu. This variant (if it indeed does exist) has the potential of being a superbug.
4. There is a somewhat undetermined swine disease that some have called "Streptococcus suis". However, that is in doubt. This disease might be either the H5N1 Avian Flu or perhaps the Avian / Ebola hybrid. This one is of concern because the number of human infections has gone from 1 to about 150 in 2.5 months (a 15 day e-folding time). Moreover, the case lethality is high (~80% or so).
There is also the general concern that any of these variants can be spread either by human to human or by bird/pig to human. If sufficient animals were infected, the human to human transmission might not be necessary for a general pandemic.
So....
Have I sorted this out correctly??? Comments and corrections please??
The most significant threat then, if I have sorted this out correctly, is the so called "Streptococcus suis" which may really be H5N1 or the Ebola/Avian hybrid. The reasons are: 1) the rapid growth (15 day e-folding time) in the human cases, and 2) the potential for high contagion and lethality.
It might be possible to calculate the probability of the 18 nucleotide pair identity between Ebola and Avian if someone can tell me the total length of the two viral genomes (in base pairs), and the general structural similarity. (I thought they were quite different). I would also need to know the general rate of random mutations in virii (which should be a standard number). We could at least determine whether the random mutation is possible or whether a recombination event has occurred.
Thanks
Could you kindly post the specific online pharmacies you have used on the Avian Flu Preparedness Project??
Thanks
Maybe I've just missed it as I came to this thread late but where is the evidence for an Ebola outbreak in China?
I have more or less tossed aside the Strep suis diagnosis as any kind of problem. From what I've read, it's ubiquitous in pig farming and also in folks who do pig farming, and is either like a comensal or a mild disease. Treatment with autologous vaccine or antibiotics is used when necessary, but mostly it's not necessary.
Strep suis is a red herring diagnosis given out by China to convince the west that China knows what it is, and it's not that serious.
The other stuff I want to think about some more.
Are we sure it is Ebola? What about a nasty strain of Crimean Fever?
http://www.nap.edu/books/0309095042/html/61.html
Camp Devens was a nightmare of rasping blue death.
Lines of men clutching blankets stood outside the hospital in the rain. Inside, cots overflowed into hallways and onto porches. Many patients had the deadly hue of cyanosis, a blue so deep that many observers misjudged this for the return of “black death.” In the morgue, Welch and Cole had to step over and around piles of corpses to observe an autopsy.
Cole later recalled: “When the chest was opened and the blue swollen lungs were removed and opened, and Dr. Welch saw the wet, foamy surfaces with real consolidation, he turned and said, ‘This must be some new kind of infection or plague,’ and he was quite excited and obviously very nervous... It was not surprising that the rest of us were disturbed, but it shocked me to find that the situation, momentarily at least, was too much even for Dr. Welch.”
The physicians quickly recovered their equilibrium. Welch called in an expert from Harvard to perform autopsies. He ordered a Rockefeller lab scientist to drop everything and make a vaccine. He told the army to order camp hospitals expanded and to impose quarantine measures.
It was too little, too late. Flu victims were contagious for several days before showing symptoms, and soldiers had been flowing in and out of Devens daily, as had civilian staff and volunteers. The influenza virus soon appeared in Boston, in Philadelphia, in New York and in New Orleans.
Most victims recovered, and their experience generally was a more intense version of the expected weeklong course of fever, aches, chills and nausea. But a substantial minority endured much worse. They were utterly incapacitated by exhaustion, able to summon up the energy only to cry out constantly in the face of excruciating earaches and headaches.
As the disease progressed and pneumonia set in, they began to bleed profusely—from the nose, the ear and the mouth. Some still recovered. Hopkins physician Harvey Cushing was one such case. But if cyanosis appeared, physicians treated patients as terminal. Autopsies would show a disease that ravaged almost every internal organ.
http://www.jhsph.edu/publichealthnews/Mag_Fall04/prologues/
Good summary.
A shorter version might be: A lot of things are going on which may or may not be related, and it is getting REALLY complicated.
A few general comments:
I agree with Judith Anne on the Strep Suis (post 1196). I'd bet my last nickel that China did not move 50,000 "medical workers" into place to monitor Strep Suis in pigs.
As for the possible recombination event between Ebola and H5N1, I suspect the odds of finding a long genetically matched sequence is not really the relevant issue. My guess is that the presence of the matched sequence is important primarily because it raises the odds of a successful recombination event.
My understanding of recombination is that two broken strands of DNA/RNA, each from separate sources, stick together to form a new virus. The odds against this are generally pretty high, but if you have enough broken viral strands floating around it can happen. Presumably, if the broken strands have a matching "end", they will stick together more easily. If my understanding of this is right, then the matched sequence portion of the viral strand in H5N1 and Ebola means recombination between these two very different viruses is not as far fetched as it might have seemed. (A host catching both of these diseases at once would be rather unlucky, but if Ebola is really present in the Chinese H5N1 infection area I suppose it could happen.)
My post in 1149 was intended merely as a mathematical aside. I'm pretty sure a mathematical model along the lines I described in the post is possible (I've personally created Monte Carlo simulations with a similar number of variables and uncertainty, so I know it can be done). We don't have the necessary info to create this model ourselves, but I assume WHO and the CDC do. Hence I assume they each have a model that shows the odds within given time frames for H5N1 to break out in the human population.
If the CDC and WHO models still have large levels of uncertainty, it might be because China has not been forthcoming with its data. The Chinese decision to classify their data as a "state secret" is a crime against humanity.
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