Avian Flu Surveillance Project

Various ^ | May 9, 2005 | Vanity

[Dog Gone]

Some folks suggested that we begin a thread similar to the Marsburg Surveillance Project for monitoring developments regarding Avian Flu.

The purpose is to have an extended thread where those interested can post articles and comments as this story unfolds.

If we're lucky, the story and this thread will fade away.

[Kelly_2000]

Please all bear in mind that influenza is endemic in porcine populations every year without exception. Basically as I said previously human influenza is a zoonosis. Influenza pandemics often occur as a result of the introduction of a new subtype of influenza A virus into the human population. Comparative analysis has revealed year on year that many parts of the segmented genome of the viruses that are being introduced in an "antigenic shift" are of animal origin. So to say that South Korean porcine influenza is a unique event is somewhat puzzling. Converging influenza? They are concurrent and interrelated.

[King Prout]

do you have an ebola surveillance project up?

[unseen]

Judith,

thanks for the post I was aware of this pig flu to some degree because I enjoy the recombinomics web site. He makes some excellent points and has some excellent conclusions based on the info. IMHO

[Dog Gone]

Well, that ain't good.

My modem went out on Friday, and I just installed a new one tonight, so I've got a little catching up to do...

[Domestic Church]

Ping to post #94

[Judith Anne]

No, I don't have an Ebola thread up, wasn't planning to make one, but if you're talking about the Congo outbreak, I think it's likely Marburg. Just my opinion.

[Myrddin]

Thanks DC. Between the TM thread, Marburg and Avian flu we have quite a circus going. North Korea appears to have a dual race to oblivion on their agenda...nukes and flu. There isn't enough competent help and resources to corral the Marburg outbreak in Angola.

[Judith Anne]

From Recombinomics, today:

Pandemic Unpreparedness - No 2005 H5N1 GenBank Sequences

Recombinomics Commentary
May 17, 2005

>> Many influenza experts have issued grave warnings of an imminent pandemic. The hope inherent in all planning for a pandemic is that if we are able to detect a pandemic early in its course, we may be able to undertake necessary preparations in both prevention and medical care. This will not be possible without comprehensive and reliable surveillance. <<

The above closing to the Clinician's Biosecurity Network commentary entitled "Avian Influenza: Inadequate Surveillance Undermines Pandemic Preparedness" emphasizes the realization that the poor surveillance of H5N1 and other influenza can have serious consequences.

The recent Nature report on lack of H5N1 sharing pointed out the fact that the number of 2005 H5N1sequences at WHO is remarkably low. Although WHO attributed this to a poor yield in isolating virus, that explanation is just the tip of the scandalously poor surveillance by WHO and affected countries.

Reports on false negatives in both southern and northern Vietnam have generated a serious undercount in human cases. The cited examples suggest that almost 80% of the H5N1 cases in the south have been missed, Since the north has reported milder cases, it seems likely that the number of missed cases in the north may be markedly higher.

The north has yet to report results from H5N1 outbreaks in Quang Binh, Haiphong, and Quang Ninh. Media reports indicated 1000 samples had been collected and some or all were being sent to the CDC in mid April, yet no results have been announced.

In marked contrast to 2004, there are no 2005 H5N1 sequences at Genbank. At this time last year there were 65 isolates and 139 gene sequences from 2004 H5N1 isolates. The number of publicly available sequences by the end of May totaled 111 from 60 isolates. As of today there are zero 2005 sequences available at GenBank. The number of 2004 sequences currently available has grown to 610 from 156 isolates throughout eastern Asia, yet there are no 2005 H5N1 sequences publicly available.

The rich database of 2004 isolates allows for rapid analysis of new 2005 H5N1 sequneces, yet WHO is looking for reassortment with human genes, which has never been reported for H5N1 in spite of 4 distinct human outbreaks in 1997, 2003, 2004, 2005. WHO still believes the evolving H5N1 genetic changes are from random mutations instead of elegant evolution via recombination.

2005 H5N1 infections in Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Indonesia have all been acknowledged.

If sharing isn't a problem, then why no sequences at GenBank?

Pandemic unpreparedness is becoming increasingly obvious.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05170502/H5N1_2005_Genbank_Not.html

[Domestic Church]

"Reports on false negatives in both southern and northern Vietnam have generated a serious undercount in human cases. The cited examples suggest that almost 80% of the H5N1 cases in the south have been missed, Since the north has reported milder cases, it seems likely that the number of missed cases in the north may be markedly higher."

Oh my, as if to say they are setting it up to take over where their population control efforts have failed. To so grossly undercount (and limit the possible share in vaccine development by doing so) is frightful.

[Kelly_2000]

"Although WHO attributed this to a poor yield in isolating virus, that explanation is just the tip of the scandalously poor surveillance by WHO and affected countries. "

I am not sure I agree with this, WHO are not responsible for surveillance in the field, the national level government resources are responsible for this work. WHO's role is to make an analysis of this data and project trends. IMO the data for avian flu is rich and available in both Europe and Asian Pac Rim and the Americas. The WHO comments concerning what they have received is to me incredible and at odds with what is visible on such systems as NEDSS and other Global MIS. There is a glut of data IMO not the reverse.

[Velveeta]

Frightening stuff.
Thanks for the ping, DC.

[Dog Gone]

WHO to warn on changing avian flu

By Pallab Ghosh
BBC News science correspondent

A new virus could spread quickly

The WHO is to announce new research showing that the pattern of avian flu in northern Vietnam is consistent with human-to-human infection.

BBC News has obtained an advance copy of the study, which urges governments to bolster public health measures.

The new methods will be needed to protect against a new influenza pandemic, the WHO paper says.

It is thought that at least 92 people have caught the avian influenza virus from handling poultry since late 2003.

But in a handful of cases, there is the suspicion that the virus has mutated and spread from person to person.

Infection clusters

Scientists fear this new infection could form the basis of a new world-wide flu pandemic.

In the first detailed assessment of this possibility, a WHO team says that the infection pattern in northern Vietnam may indicate that the infection is passing from one person to another.

When the infection spreads from poultry, it usually infects a small number of shoppers or meat handlers and is quickly eradicated.

Instead, in northern Vietnam, researchers say they have discovered a higher number of infection clusters, the period of infection is longer and the age range of those infected is much wider.

The scientists have also found that the virus in northern Vietnam is genetically more different to a bird virus than other strains.

However, the WHO stresses that the pattern of infection could also be explained by a more infectious form of bird to human infection.

BBC link

[genefromjersey]

This may be a duplicate. CIDRAP reported as follows:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/may1805who.html

At the risk of seeming rude,it occurs to me some of this "pandemic panic" might be "commercially fuelled"; ie:
promoted by people who have a financial interest in the design,manufacture,and distribution of anti-flu vaccines.

These vaccines are not free of side effects: Remember the Guilliane Barnes (?) Syndrome cases that accompanied mass vaccinations for swine flu ?

If a strong enough case is made,liability for manufacture of vaccines might be eased rather significantly-in the national or world interest.

[Dog Gone]

It's not unfair to wonder whether a financial motive is driving the reports, although they're coming from countries with no vaccine companies.

Pandemics do happen, and they've certainly happened without a financial motive behind them.

[unseen]

Once again WHo is way behind

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05180508/H5N1_Destroys_Tenents.html

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05180507/H5N1_Recombine_Vaccine.html

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05180506/H5N1_Novel_Receptor_Binding.html

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05180505/H5N1_Emerging_Tamiflu_Resistance.html

[unseen]

It is not rude, but it does show a lack of historical prospective. The 1918 Spanish flu killed 40,000,000 people with a death rate of 2.5% The death rate for the "bird flu" in Vietnam per your article is The case-fatality rate has dropped to 34% this year in the north but is 83% in the south. Now I am sure that there are a lot of milder cases not being reported so the death rate is probably a lot lowe. However the FACT that we have had 3 major pandemics in the last 87 years (1918,1957,1968) and the FACT that it is an H5 that we have NO immunity too not like H1 or H2 or H3 that Humans do have some immunity too (H1, H2 and H3 flu season still kill 20,000 to 30,000 people a year in the US) should raise every red flag in the world. We are talking about a MAJOR problem here. This virus could cripple every economy in the world and kill 100,000,000's of people. Will the drug companies make money sure but they will make it hand over fist if this thing hits. So sounding the alarm now would be stupid for them if it was truly an economic reason for the alarm bells going off.

[Judith Anne]

When a genuine killer pandemic hits, I'm sure we'll be amazed at what people will pay for something they think will help...

Even if it doesn't...Tamiflu resistance is beginning to be seen, in some of the avian flu. But people will still buy it, in a pandemic.

[genefromjersey]

You are undoubtedly right.

[redgolum]

Between H5 and Marburg, my plan to hide in the mountains of Alaska for the next 40 years keeps looking better...

[unseen]

Yeap, get plenty of shotgun shells and canned goods it might be a very long winter....:p