Posted on 05/09/2005 10:18:08 AM PDT by Dog Gone
Some folks suggested that we begin a thread similar to the Marsburg Surveillance Project for monitoring developments regarding Avian Flu.
The purpose is to have an extended thread where those interested can post articles and comments as this story unfolds.
If we're lucky, the story and this thread will fade away.
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/opinion/article/0,1299,DRMN_38_3964804,00.html
QUOTE:" Garrett notes that H5N1 has rapidly mutated, jumping recently to infect pigs. In fact, the scientific evidence points to the potential that it will soon mutate into a human-pandemic form. Which is why she concludes that, "Those responsible for foreign policy and national security, the world over, cannot afford to ignore the warning."
I don't say it often enough, but thanks for the pings! :)
I look forward to reading your summary.
Please post a link to your blog here, when you have finished it. I'm sure I'm not the only interested person.
Thanks for the input.
I know I don't say it often enough, but thanks to EVERYONE on this thread for posting articles and comments. I know that we all appreciate those who go to the effort of bringing us the latest information.
It is certainly greatly appreciated.
Thanks also to those who simply stop by and let us know that you're reading and keeping up. It certainly makes things easier when we're having a discussion, and I appreciate it.
The jump to pigs is, if I have my facts correct, the last jump before efficient human-to-human transmission.
What incidence is there of the flu causing DIC? Isn't this something very rare for even bacterial sepsis infections? What would trigger this as a standard response to any infection, viral or bacterial?
I don't know if someone else posted this yet but it was on the TM:
[MedIndia] SINGAPORE - Death Of Singaporean Woman After Mysterious Illness
"Police are investigating the mysterious death of a woman whose entire body turned black, skin peeled off and
blood oozed from her
ears"
http://www.medindia.net/news/View_news_main.asp?x=4147&t=gn
From eMedicine:
Frequency:
In the US: Approximately 18,000 cases of DIC occurred in 1994. DIC may occur in 30-50% of patients with sepsis.
http://www.emedicine.com/EMERG/topic150.htm
My comment: mortality depends on how serious the disease is, and how bad the infection is, I suspect.
I haven't seen this posted, yet. If it was, I apologize for reposting here, but I wanted to be sure everyone saw the article.
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From Recombinomics:
The Export of a H5N1 Bird Flu Pandemic By China
Recombinomics Commentary
July 31, 2005
Dick Thompson, a spokesman for the World Health Organization in Geneva, said, "We would hope that these samples would be sent to a WHO international reference lab outside the country. This is standard for verification."
"To confirm that it is H5N1, it is important that these tests are done outside the country,"
It important to sequence the H5N1 isolates from Russia. At this point, confirmation is a mere formality. Although it took over a week to determine the subtype of N, the death of the ducks and geese died and the H5 subtype, indicated that the outbreaks in Novosibirsk were related to the H5N1 outbreaks in Qinghai and Xinjiang provinces in China. All three outbreaks had been linked to migratory birds, killed ducks and geese, and were H5N1 confirmed.
The export of H5N1 from Qinghai Lake has now almost certainly included Kazakhstan. Geese also died and a poultry worker is in critical condition with bird flu symptoms. Tests results will almost certainly indicate H5N1 was involved. If not, there is probably a problem with the test.
The sequences fro Qinghai Lake were clearly cause for concern. They had mammalian sequences and were mixtures of sequences from Europe and Asia. There were also regions of homology with earlier H5 isolates from Russia (Chany Lake and Primorie). The earlier isolates however did not have the HPAI cleavage site and did not kill migratory birds.
In contrast, the isolates from Qinghai Lake were quite lethal. Over 6000 birds had died, most of which were migratory geese, which are normally resistant to H5N1.
The unanswered question about the Qinghai Lakes isolates was transmissibility to humans. Reported cases had been limited to four countries in southeast Asia, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia. HPAI H5N1 had not been previously reported in Russia or Kazakhstan, so the dead geese signaled a major change, which was reflected in the sequences form China.
Boxun reports had indicated that there were human cases associated with the Qinghai isolates. Reports detailed 10 strains of H5N1, most of which could infect humans. However, the isolate from Qinghai Lake, RK-7 was considered the most lethal. Experimental data on the Qinghai isolates confirmed that it was lethal in chickens and mice and all isolates had the E627K polymorphism in PB2 associated with increased virulence in mice and fatal infections in humans.
Boxun reports also described fatal infections in humans near Qinghai Lake. Initial reports cited 121 deaths. Reports on death benefit claims suggested the number was over 700. There were also reports of the military enforcing forced quarantines and arrests of reporters. China also issued new regulations limiting the sharing of sequences and samples and closed down the Shantou lab that contributed to the sequencing of all 12 Qinghai Lake isolates as well as 8 additional 2005 isolates from eastern China.
Prior to May 21, China did not report any H5N1 outbreaks in 2005. Moreover, they have still not reported any infections outside of Qingahi and Xinjiang provinces. They have not given permission to WHO to visit Xinjiang and have not provided samples or sequences of isolates from live birds at Qinghai Lake.
The suspect bird flu case in Kazakhstan, just across the border from the confirmed outbreaks near Chany Lake in Novosibirsk, casts additional doubt on China's claims of now human cases in H5N1. Boxun reports suggest there is a raging pandemic in China, which is being covered up.
Most countries have little incentive to report H5N1 cases. India claims to have never had H5N1 in poultry of people, although, poultry workers in India have H5N1 antibodies. Thailand claims to have had no H5N1 cases in 2005 although the H5N1 isolated from birds closely matches the H5N1 in northern Vietnam isolated from patients. Indonesia claim their H5N1 infections in 2003 were due to New Castle Disease and the H5N1 in a Jakarta suburban family was a fatal bacterial infection.
China has denied any human cases of H5N1, including the large number of cases reported by Boxun in Qinghai and the pneumonia isolation wards in Tacheng, Xinjiang.
The sequences of isolates from Qinghai Lake are public and the H5N1 infected birds are beginning to migrate to Europe, India, Bangladesh, Tibet, eastern China, and southeast Asia. The exported H5N1 will be reported as dead birds and people begin to accumulate, and the sequences from the fatal infections will point to China and its massive cover-up.
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Here's the link:
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07310502/H5N1_Export_Pandemic_China.html
If you click on the link and read the original article, there are numerous links scattered throughout.
My comment, and others may disagree, is that we are likely to see Avian Flu in this country this fall.
These symptoms are not entirely consistent with H5N1,Streptococcus suis or Ebola. However the only symptoms listed above common to Streptococcus suis are meningitis (in some cases not all),fever and vomiting etc.
Do we know if the symptoms are reported by Chinese health officials? or from the media. In other words did the media get this confused or is this the picture the Chinese are proposing? Because if this is the later and we are presented with a novel Streptococcus suis then this is also cause for concern and further study.
"Some 50,000 health workers are being deployed in China's Sichuan province as the human death toll continues to climb from a mystery epidemic involving bacteria spread among pigs. "
Hmm so they are spending a considerable amount of money over a Streptococcus suis outbreak that currently has fewer than 100 cases globally? Something not right here.
"Okay, first of all, I don't think this is a strep suis outbreak."
The symptoms are atypical, but without independent corroboration it's impossible to say yet. as i said above this could be a novel Strep suis outbreak
"I think this is H5N1, "
Pause for thought here there IS some remaining concern over lab data that corroborates Ebola H5N1 recombination event took place in Asia in 2004. A white paper is pending but the initial releases of data suggest this is the case. Please bear in mind that Streptococcus suis is endemic in most porcine populations especially in Asia and Europe. This new scare and Press Release form China presents a perfect backdrop for such a claim.
"Registering pigs does not sound, to me, like a way to control anything."
That depends on your objectives, if you want to contain and hold the population accountable for transmission during slaughter or transportation, then this provides a fear mechanisms to monitor and punish the population. it could be a way the Chinese really do want to control this outbreak. However if you want to eliminate or reduce the endemic reservoir of Streptococcus suis then culling is the only policy possible activity.
Thanks for the link this also again outlines how trade and excise considerations override health ones. Notice how few countries have reported cases when their populations test positive for H5N1 antibodies.
That's the only point I really disagree with you about. I think they're entirely consistent with H5N1 complicated by DIC. And any viral disease that has been treated by aspirin, commonly used to bring down a fever, can cause meningitis/encephalitis (Reyes' syndrome).
We don't know who is giving the symptoms list, in some cases it may be Boxun.
One thing is for certain, the Chinese are being....inscrutable.
I'll be gone for several hours.
At present it's such a rare consideration, Hmm we would need to see more data concerning clinical presentation, interesting data would be if we saw a spread of symptoms such as thromboembolism as well as mucosal bleeding and in general acute hemorrhaging. This would be compelling and consistent with your hypothesis, if it proved to be the case. I will see what I can find available on my side, maybe I can run it down.
"We don't know who is giving the symptoms list, in some cases it may be Boxun. "
OK thanks for that update I will take a look at the Chinese releases in more detail.
"One thing is for certain, the Chinese are being....inscrutable. "
Thats a given:-)
Talk later Judith :-)
Just saw this on the Yahoo wire... apologies in advance if has already been posted.
Russia bird flu could spread to EU - vet official
MOSCOW (Reuters) - A strain of bird flu dangerous to humans could spread to parts of the European Union from Siberia, a senior Russian veterinary official warned on Monday.
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Chances were "very high" the strain found in the Novosibirsk region could spread to other parts of Siberia, the official from the Russian Veterinary and Phytosanitary Inspection Service told Reuters.
"There is also a possibility that bird flu could spread to the European Union as (infected) wild birds from China may have been in contact in Russia with birds that will fly on to the Netherlands, France and elsewhere," the official said.
"North America is not safe either, as some birds from Russia fly there, too," said the official who did not wish to be named.
The official said it had been confirmed on Friday that birds in the Novosibirsk region were infected with the H5N1 strain of bird flu, which is dangerous to humans, and not with H5N2, as had previously been believed.
Bird flu is split in strains such as H5 and H7, which in turn have nine different subtypes. H5N1 subtype is highly pathogenic and can be passed from birds to humans, although there have been no known cases of human to human transmission.
More than 50 people have died in Asia from H5N1 since late 2003, raising fears it could mutate and form the basis of a global epidemic.
Later, the Agriculture Ministry said bird flu had also been found in poultry in a farm in another region, Altai, between Novosibirsk and Kazakhstan.
"A quarantine has been imposed in all the affected locations, and necessary measures are being taken to isolate the pockets of infection," the statement said.
It said that heads of regional veterinary services have been instructed to organize measures to prevent the spreading of the disease.
Veterinary officials were examining samples taken on farms in other Siberian regions where migrating wild birds from China may have landed.
The official said neighboring Kazakhstan, where deaths of poultry and wild birds in the northern Pavlodar region have been registered last month, may also have a bird flu strain similar to Russia's.
"We have been in contact with the Kazakhs. The probability that they have the same type of virus is very high, as some birds fly to Russia from China through Kazakhstan. But it will take some time to have it confirmed," the official said.
A spokesman for the Russian emergencies ministry said on Monday that so far no cases of humans being infected with bird flu had been registered.
He said over 2,000 birds died of the virus in 18 villages in Novosibirsk region. Experts were also checking cases of deaths of poultry and wild birds in the neighboring regions of Omsk and Altai.
(Additional reporting by Tatyana Mosolova in Moscow and Raushan Nurshayeva in Astana)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050801/hl_nm/russia_birdflu_dc
I posted something over at my blog, mainly to help direct people to this thread, that I think is much more informative. I am certainly no expert on this issue as is my friend and others on this site. I welcome your corrections and clarifications over at my blog for the benefit of our readers that might be getting interested in this story for the first time.
I read this every so often, not my field. I appreciate
the thread since I like most science/technology threads.
Thanks for your research.
Been on vacation, just catching back up.
Many thanks to you and all the others that are keeping this thread up to date.
China assigning 50,000 "medical" personnel to what seems to be a relatively minor problem with pigs, in a region already closed to outside news because of reports of H5N1, has got to be considered a major "red flag".
And, possible recombination between H5N1 and Ebola???
Until now I would have thought recombination between H5N1 and Ebola was impossible, or at least extraordinarily improbable. Furthermore, my impression was that the two diseases are not normally present in the same geographic location. So even if recombination of these two very different viruses was "easy" it would not seem likely simply because the same host would be unlikely to be infected with both at the same time. However, Kelly-2000 would seem to be the perfect person to pour cold water on this possibility from a theoretical standpoint, and she has not done so.
All in all, I think I should have stayed on vacation. Or not read this thread when I came back...
Sorry. :-(
We've been blessed with some really outstanding posters on this thread, and I thank each and every one of them. ;-D
H5N1 Bird Flu Migrates West Toward Europe
Recombinomics Commentary
August 1, 2005
Russia's Emergency Situations Ministry said bird flu in the Novosibirsk region had killed 2,382 poultry, including 127 since Sunday morning.
Mass death of poultry was registered in 18 settlements of the Dovolensky, Kupinsky, Zdvinsky and Chistoozerny districts. ....
"Poultry death cases were also registered in the Omsk region and the Altai territory. In the Omsk region, 450 poultry died, and in the Altai territory - 300, but the diagnosis has not been formally confirmed in these two provinces.
The above descriptions of confirmed and suspected H5N1 in Russia indicate H5N1 is radiating out from the Chany Lake region. The locations in the Novosibisrk region are to the east, south, and west of the Lake.
The Altai territory had already announced a quarantine and now there are suspect bird flu cases. It is southeast of Chany Lake and borders Kazkhstan, China and Mongolia.
The Omsk region is to the west of Novosibirsk and marks the western most region reported thus far. It appears that the birds will cross the Urals into Europe soon. The timing and location of the latest reports indicate H5N1 is alive and well in southern Siberia and flying toward warmer climates to the west and south.(end of commentary)
It appears to be spreading into Europe quickly with the migrations.
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