Posted on 05/06/2005 1:48:18 PM PDT by MadIvan
Within minutes of Michael Howard's announcement that he is to stand down as Conservative leader, David Davis, the shadow home secretary, was installed as firm favourite to replace him by the bookmakers.
Ladbrokes have Mr Davis a 5/2 favourite to take on the role, while William Hill will offer odds of 3/1.
Mr Davis, who last night defied the Liberal Democrat "decapitation" threat to his Haltemprice and Howden seat, contested the leadership in 2001.
However, he fell at the first hurdle when fellow MPs did not give him enough backing to progress to the wider party vote.
A former territorial SAS soldier, Mr Davis boosted his shadow cabinet profile when he claimed the scalp of immigration minister Beverley Hughes in a row over visas.
He is believed to be popular with the grassroots of the party, but modernisers fear his hard line on crime and immigration would reinforce perceptions of Tories as the "nasty" party.
His strongest rival is party chairman Liam Fox, a Eurosceptic who would appeal to the party's right-wing on social issues.
A former Foreign Office minister, he led Mr Howard's leadership campaign in 2003 and championed the Tories' "patients' passports" policy.
Dr Fox is priced at 6/1 with Ladbrokes, with rising star David Cameron at 9/1 and Andrew Lansley, the shadow health secretary, at 10/1.
Kenneth Clarke said last week he would "almost certainly not" contest the leadership again but did not ruled himself out entirely.
His pro-European stance has hindered his leadership prospects in the past, but he is an acknowledged heavyweight at Westminster and a high-profile and popular figure with the public.
Other possible contenders include George Osborne, 33.
Shadow environment and transport secretary Tim Yeo may also enter the fray, but, aged 60, is regarded by many as too old and as not having distinguished himself in his brief.
John Redwood, the Eurosceptic former cabinet minister could also throw his hat in the ring for a third time. He challenged John Major in 1995 and ran again in 1997.
William Hague, the former party leader has said he is not willing to return as leader, but some senior Tories hope he can be persuaded.
Oliver Letwin, the shadow chancellor, has said he has "no intention" of standing for the leadership.
William Hill offer Malcolm Rifkind at 7/1, Mr Fox at 8/1 and former leader William Hague at 14/1.
Bookmakers have also slashed the odds on a Tory victory at the next General Election.
The Conservatives are now at their lowest price since 1992 to form a Government when the nation next goes to the polls.
Odds on Mr Blair stepping down by the end of 2005 have been cut from 7/1 to 4/1.
Regards, Ivan
Ping!
They're worried about his hard line on criminals?
I know, it's stupid. There are a lot of votes in saying, "We're going to string up the criminals".
Regards, Ivan
How old is he? I couldn't find his age in the article.
Are the Brits unsympatheic with gun rights?
Gordon Brown should provide a better, starker contrast for the next election...assuming Iraq is considered a "past" issue by that point, I would think the election will fall on more traditional lines.
Gordon Brown, from my VERY limited observation, seems to me rather nasty "looking" and "sounding" himself..not exactly the equal of Mr. Blair in presentation. Which Tory would be the best match against Brown?
Sort of like here in the States..Newt Gingrich would make a good President IMO, but he has not a chance in the world in a general election due to his presentation (mainly he is too blunt). I don't know enough about the characters involved in the UK scene to compare.
How is Davis on the issues?
Is he a conservative.
"Since guns are banned I have read that there have been home invasions.
Are the Brits unsympatheic with gun rights?"
What's a 'home invasion'?
No-one had guns in the first place, so it was hardly a big deal. I would say that largely Brits are unsympathetic to gun rights (no supporting evidence here , purely based on my own experiences), at least in terms that an American would define them. There has never been any culture of widespread domestic gun ownership and 16 dead primary school children still paints a pretty vivid picture.
I don't know anyone who ever shoots a firearm and it makes me nervous when I see an armed policeman, makes me think they're must be something going on...
Is Davis a Conservative?
I have it on good authority that Gordon Brown is a thin skinned psychopath. If he becomes Prime Minister, it will be a short lived thing.
Regards, Ivan
Good article Ivan, thank you for sharing.
A home invasion means a break-in when the occupants are at home. They aren't very common around here because you just don't know what sort of reception might be waiting .. 9mm, 357, 40 S&W, 12 bore etc LOL.
In the UK such "invasions" are getting more common as the burglars know they can usually get their way and intimidate the occupants into giving up the goodies.
short sabbatical, eh?..glad to see you....regards
Question: If the Tories successfully lead the fight against Brit approval of the EU constitution, would that consitite enough to force a vote of NO confidence against Labor..and anpother election very soon...IOW, I really don't completely understand the parliamentary system over there..
No, a defeat of the EU Constitution would not be a "no confidence" vote.
In a Westminster style parliamentary system the Prime Minister and government must have the support of a majority of Parliament. That support is shown by key votes such as the Budget.
The EU Constitution will be voted on in a referendum of the voters, not a vote in Parliament. If it goes down it does not mean that Parliament has lost confidence in the Government.
If you want to see this process in action watch the Canadian Parliament. The Tories there are trying to bring down the Liberal government. The is a lot of parliamentary manuvering to bring up the right type of vote to defeat the government and force a new election.
A referendum defeat would not necesarily force an election, but it could be the trigger for Tony Blair to stand aside and allow Gordon Brown to take over as PM.
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