A Date With 2008

http://www.govexec.com ^ | 5/4/05 | Charlie Cook, National Journal

[bitt]

Only in a place as obsessed with politics as Washington could an election more than three and a half years away dominate so many discussions. But, heading into the first presidential campaign in 80 years without an incumbent president or vice president running, the possibilities are fascinating.

On the Republican side, virtually every national poll shows former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani leading the pack, with 25 to 30 percent of the vote. Sen. John McCain of Arizona tends to run second, with 20 to 25 percent, and Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee score in the mid-to-high single digits.

After that, the GOP has a long cast of potential candidates who are drawing support in, at most, the low single digits: Sen. George Allen of Virginia, Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, Gov. George Pataki of New York, Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, Gov. Mark Sanford of South Carolina, and Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.

Although Giuliani leads the field in every survey of Republican voters, the smart money discounts his popularity -- few trained observers think that a "pro-choice," pro-gun-control, and pro-gay-rights candidate has much of a chance of winning the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. Giuliani drew large and enthusiastic crowds everywhere he went last year as he campaigned for President Bush and other GOP candidates, yet it is difficult to imagine that the social, cultural, and religious conservatives who play such an important role in the GOP's presidential-selection process will find Giuliani acceptable.

[hunter112]

Yes, Dean did shoot himself in both feet, but we're lucky that not too many Republican voters were put off by Bush and Cheney's "Clymer" remarks. Enough people had heard of Bush by that point to have dismissed the remark as campaign fatigue or something like that.

My point remains, somebody acceptable to the conservative side of the Republican Party must get his name out there, and soon!

[elmer fudd]

I'd rather see Hillary in the white house than McCain. McCain as POTUS would destroy the Republican party. We outlasted Bill and we can do it again, but if we have a RINO as the head of our party and dictating the "conservative" agenda, then we are sunk. In that situation conservatives will have lost even if the Republican party is in power since it will no longer advocate our views.