Just wondering if anyone has updated the graph with the new numbers and how it compares with the predictions shown on earlier threads regarding Marburg?
I have replotted the graphs. I am keeping the original growth plot, determined by regression to the earlier data (before "administrative reclassification"), and am also plotting the reported data. I will wait for one more data point before posting.
My general sense is that the reported data have been significantly undercounting the real infection rate. If that is the case, the reported results will slowly approach the fitted growth curve. Too early to tell. It could also be that the recent increases were an abberation. Another poster pointed out (forgive me, I forget who), that the SARS epidemic showed similar aberrant behavior.