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To: Flamenco Lady
I have replotted the graphs. I am keeping the original growth plot, determined by regression to the earlier data (before "administrative reclassification"), and am also plotting the reported data. I will wait for one more data point before posting.

My general sense is that the reported data have been significantly undercounting the real infection rate. If that is the case, the reported results will slowly approach the fitted growth curve. Too early to tell. It could also be that the recent increases were an abberation. Another poster pointed out (forgive me, I forget who), that the SARS epidemic showed similar aberrant behavior.

45 posted on 05/04/2005 11:02:13 AM PDT by 2ndreconmarine
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To: 2ndreconmarine

I guess I'm just over anxious to see your graphs now that the month of April has concluded. The first time I saw your graphs, it was a real eye opener for me. It illustrated so well how sharply the spread had increased in the more recent months, even with their revised numbers, as well as the potential for even greater spread of the disease. Your work is sincerely appreciated.


50 posted on 05/04/2005 11:30:59 AM PDT by Flamenco Lady
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