Posted on 05/02/2005 7:02:23 AM PDT by Calpernia
Tony Blair's Close Call
LONDON--Americans see British Prime Minister Tony Blair as a true-blue friend. He has worked closely with President Bush on the war on terrorism, and Britain was the only major U.S. ally to fight in the Iraq war. But American gratitude isn't exactly a vote getter for the beleaguered Blair. The war and Blair's Bush connection--both hugely unpopular here--are putting his Labor Party at risk in this week's election. Blair is expected to win. But polls are jumping around so much that two other scenarios are conceivable. The first is a "hung Parliament," which would force Labor into a coalition government with Liberal Democrats. The other has the opposition Conservative Party eking out a win and grabbing the keys to 10 Downing Street. Because antipathy toward the war and Bush is particularly strong among Labor voters, party leaders fret that many will stay home or vote for the Lib Dems in protest. One usually reliable forecast pegs turnout at about 55 percent, enough for a Blair victory--but with a deep cut in Labor's current 161-seat majority. If it's any worse, the political career of America's favorite prime minister will be shaky indeed.
Blair would have been in trouble if there was an oppostion party in existence.
Wow, how is that for Bias. Wonder what the Aussies, Italians and the Poles think about that one.
"But polls are jumping around so much that two other scenarios are conceivable. The first is a "hung Parliament," which would force Labor into a coalition government with Liberal Democrats. The other has the opposition Conservative Party eking out a win and grabbing the keys to 10 Downing Street."
That's a bit extreme. I've seen no poll that gives Labour less than a 2% lead, others have it up to 9 or 10%. The 'conceivable scenarios' unfortunately are a large Labour win or a slightly less large Labour win. A hung parliament is a huge outsider. A Conservative government is as not even a runner, given that conventional wisdom needs the Tories to register a 2 or 3 point win in terms of vote share just to get a hung parliament.
It's so sad that Europe has become left wing, and I fear we will soon return a leftist to power here. A major factor tipping the scales is immigrants who vote socialist. It's not your daddy's Great Britain anymore.
55% is a very low forecast for turnout by the way. I would be surprised at lower than 60%.
Even funnier is the line that was floated that the US went it alone
Can we really trust polls? John Kerry was supposed to win the 2004 election according to the polls. Just a thought.
Truth is, the UK parties *all* suck.
"Are you British? It sounds like you have some insight in this matter. Tell me, will Blair lose the rip on power he now maintains? Will we have a labor win now, and then a flaming Socialist PM ensconced in power a year or so hence?"
I am British, not sure about the insight ;).
It's possible that Blair will have less control than previously. If he loses MPs then it's likely that the constituencies lost will be those of some of his more loyal backbenchers while some of the less loyal ones will survive. These of course are more likely to rebel against him in Parliamentary votes. Third term governments are more likely in general to suffer rebellions, so with a majority of 50 or lower, he could find it harder to pass some legislation.
The question then is how much will does he have to fight those kind of in-party battles? He's already talked about not passing the PM-ship on before the end of the next term, such a situation could definately push him towards sooner. Gordon Brown seems the only candidate to replace him and I can't really conceive of any other candidate challenging. Brown is generally portrayed as 'more-socialist' than Blair, though that may be overdone. I'm not sure there would be any massive difference in reality between a Blair and a Brown administration in terms of domestic policy at least - Brown already has a large influence on that. Foreign Policy is more uncertain as that has really been Blair's show.
"Can we really trust polls? John Kerry was supposed to win the 2004 election according to the polls. Just a thought."
Didn't most polls show Bush ahead, with a few for Kerry? Generally they showed it to be pretty close.
In this case, every single poll has shown a Labour lead of at least 2% and up to 10%. Some of the Labour vote is pretty soft and they may have some trouble getting it out in places (though probably more so in the safe seats where it won't matter) but you're still relying on a huge error in every single poll to lead to anything other then a Labour victory.
"I agree that a Conservative win is very unlikely, but a hung parliament is just on the edge of possibilities."
I'd agree with that.
I generally place more store in the spreads offered by spread betters than the polls. At the moment the spread is for a 65-72 seat Labour majority.
Always ready to BUMP for Tony Blair!
Morning Donna!'
Bumping back at ya!
I will never support a friend of Bill Clinton.
Maybe they did i cant remember. Perhaps it was the exit polls i was thinking about. Anyways just my 2 cents.
<< Britain was the only major U.S. ally to fight in the Iraq war
Wow, how is that for Bias. Wonder what the Aussies, Italians and the Poles think about that one. >>
So used are they to hearing the denizens of the Brussells Neo-Soviet's offshore satellite state talking about America incidently having been present in the couple of Europe's wars that "were fought and won by Britain,"
They're suprised there is even a single supercilliously sanctimonious simpering scribe saying that the Brits even showed up at America's Iraq War.
<< Britain was the only major U.S. ally to fight in the Iraq war
Wow, how is that for Bias. Wonder what the Aussies, Italians and the Poles think about that one. >>
So used are they to hearing the denizens of the Brussells Neo-Soviet's offshore satellite state talking about America incidently having been present in the couple of Europe's wars that "were fought and won by Britain,"
They're suprised there is even a single supercilliously sanctimonious simpering scribe saying that the Brits even showed up at America's Iraq War.
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