Does the Future Belong to China?

Msnbc-newsweek ^ | Fareed Zakaria

[Fishing-guy]

Long but a good read.

[Jibaholic]

Been there, done that, with Japan. Thank you, drive through.

The US has the world's most dominant economy and as long as we don't get into protectionism, we will continue to have the world's most dominant economy.

[Fishing-guy]

I think that is the point of the article. There is no way China can over take US militarily and economically, unless we shoot ourself in the foot. However, they will explore the asymmetric strategy.

[Jibaholic]

Oh sorry, I guess I jumped the gun. There are so many Chicken Little posts abouts China that I've stopped reading them.

I don't want to stop responding because I also want to make it clear that a lot of freepers aren't screaming "The sky is falling" about China.

Carry on!

[warchild9]

China is an tyranny, and a communist one at that. History shows that such political machines implode.
Keep your eyes on India. It's a messy country, now, but it IS free, and those people are smart and hungry.

[expatguy]

We are shooting ourselves in the foot.

[ndt]

"The US has the world's most dominant economy and as long as we don't get into protectionism, we will continue to have the world's most dominant economy."

Just wanted to play off the protectionism comment for a sec..

If one really believe in the power of a free market, you don't need federal programs to prop up U.S. industries, they will survive or die on their own merit. You as a consumer however do have power. Buy American, it's more that just a bumper sticker. Better yet, if you are American, produce the very best.

[mmercier]

does the future belong to china?

on our current course the answer is yes, for a few months.

then after they have their day it will be up to us to liberate what remains, which, make no mistake, we shall.

none of us need to worry however, this will be a job for our children and grandchildren. we can feel secure wearing our chinese garments whilst our illegals mow our lawns and clean our shorts.

not cut and dried as the 1920's beer cans that sank our fleet at pearl harbor, but inevitable in the long run (short of chicom meltdown). we should feel proud (truly imo) as we are the first republic in recorded history that must subsidize any foe and give them the time and technology to challenge.

the threat of china today is the same as the threat of russia yesterday; not a worthy opponent, but one that has the potential to bloody us up a bit before we generate the will to annihilate the aggressors. china is the same as their allie iran, though on a much larger scale. what is bad for america is good for china, long as the containers keep arriving here.

fear not those who make your under ware, but always be wary and never turn a blind eye in the face of their mounting aggression.

guess this makes me a reactionary, but what the hay, i have time on my hands... and eventually i will be proven correct.

reactionary conservatives inevitably are.

[joesnuffy]

I think that is the point of the article. There is no way China can over take US militarily and economically, unless we shoot ourself in the foot. However, they will explore the asymmetric strategy.

Words worth framing...for posterity's sake.;)

[Jibaholic]

none of us need to worry however, this will be a job for our children and grandchildren. we can feel secure wearing our chinese garments whilst our illegals mow our lawns and clean our shorts. You know, textiles haven't been a cutting edge industry since the early 1900s. Which country is more powerful:

Country A: dominates cutting-edge, high profit industries at the expense of commoditized, low-profit industries

Country B: Dominates cheapo plastics, unbranded clothing and low-end electronics, but nothing cutting-edge

I promise you this: there is nothing China wants more than to get our of their low-margin ghetto. And the protectionists are helping them to do it.

[AEMILIUS PAULUS]

Question: "Does the Future Belong to China?"

Response: The West is dying.

Comment: However, I'll bet on Russia-if they kick out the Western decadence and degeneration and then keep vice out as far as possible.

[Paul_Denton]

We are shooting ourselves in the foot.

But that bullet is still in mid flight and it is not too late to dodge it.

President Bush is moving in the right direction by signing on Japan to help us against China and there is a cabal of congressmen who are pro-Taiwan. 2008 though. 2008 is the year to worry because of hitlery.

China cannot match us militarily or economically. However the free traitors must be booted or else they will catch up.

[Jacquerie]

China cannot match us militarily or economically.

No they cannot. I agree not in the near term. Still, here are some thoughts.

1. Our trade imbalance is terribly lopsided and will likely get worse long before it gets better.

2. Their economy is growing a couple times (triple?) faster than the US. From an admittedly much smaller base of course.

3. Their military expansion, especially a blue water Navy with emphasis on long range high tech diesel subs is worth close scrutiny.

Its not as if I lose sleep at night thinking the Chicoms. Still, I understand they have abandoned some of the worst aspects of communism yet still maintain power. Gorby lost all when he tried it.

At some point I fear they will build a military/Navy strong enough to control their back yard in Taiwan, just as we do (Cuber excepted) in the western hemisphere. The conquest of Taiwan will be viewed as an incredible Chicom victory and and an equal loss of face for the US.

My two cents.

[Dutch Boy]

In major industrial locations like Shanghai there is an interesting set of events. Real estate has jump 300% in the last 5 years. Management and engineer level employees expect very frequent (several times a year) and very high pay raises (I've heard of several in the +30% range) or they move to other companies that are willing to pay. Top end people can get more than 300% bump just by changing companies. The only thing that is remaing low are the labor level workers.

[KevinDavis]

[monkeywrench]

But they never abandoned corruption. Their economic system is shot throughout with it. That will bring them down.

[Jacquerie]

I hope you are right and that it leads to something a little less than Putin's Russia.

[mmercier]

do not mistake me for a protectionist. i'm a free market capitalist in the ludwig von mises vein, i just fear that we are not watching china as close as necessary.

i worked for a decade in technology manufacture (semiconductors) and saw countless of our lines exported because it was and is a waste of intellectual resources to manufacture the sameoldsameold.

where my faith begins to waiver is when the capitalist cycle seems to be disrupted; it is a necessity that people maintain an income that allows them to also be consumers. people can not buy something with nothing regardless of origin of said goods. at the same time we are exporting commodities manufacture we are allowing the illegal immigration of countless beings not even educated to manufacture said goods.

i need time on this to think, as there are so many issues running here that i have become scatterbrained. my fault for jumping the gun and ranting.

i am well aware that the benefits here of low line cost manufactured commodities goods made in foreign lands far outweigh the degradation of same inefficient domestic industries. it is a fact that cheap commodities goods free up domestic capital for more productive uses. i'm also well aware that the mass manufacture of low cost goods historically leads to increased standards in the countries engaged in manufacture in the long run...

>> promise you this: there is nothing China wants more than to get our of their low-margin ghetto. And the protectionists are helping them to do it.

this statement is spot on, and is the hope i expressed as the chicom meltdown. they can not achieve this while under communist control, people simply will not produce the needed intellectual (and financial) capital required under such a system. i believe in a global economy, but i am wary of trading partners who's philosophy ultimately demands the end of our free republic. especially when we will be totally reliant on them for strategic resources in the next decade. we are going too far and are consciously becoming vulnerable to their good will. funny how the left so hates nixon; he is the man who opened this pathway whereby the worlds largest democracy is now funding the worlds largest communist state. one more time, ignore my paragraph structure, i can not figure out this editor...

[superiorslots]

Quote: Country B: Dominates cheapo plastics, unbranded clothing and low-end electronics, but nothing cutting-edge

You are a fool. GE, Cisco are just two companies of the many that are building the latest hi-tech R&D centers in china.
Chery car company is going to start exporting their cars to the uS in 2007.

[Doe Eyes]

Country A: dominates cutting-edge, high profit industries at the expense of commoditized, low-profit industries

Country B: Dominates cheapo plastics, unbranded clothing and low-end electronics, but nothing cutting-edge

Japan, they never amounted to anything, huh?