Iraq Expects Foreign Troops to Pull Out Mid-2006

U.S. and other foreign troops in Iraq will likely start pulling out in large numbers by the middle of next year, Iraq's national security advisor said on Sunday.

"I will be very surprised if they (U.S. and other foreign troops) don't think very seriously of starting pulling out probably by the end of the first half of next year," said Iraqi national security adviser Mowaffak Al-Rubaie in an interview with CNN's "Late Edition."

When pressed on exact numbers expected to leave, Al-Rubaie said this depended on how quickly Iraqi troops could be trained and armed to take over.

Twenty-five months after the invasion to topple Saddam Hussein, the United States has 138,000 troops in Iraq battling a relentless insurgency and training Iraqi security forces.

The United States has not given a timetable for withdrawing its troops and President Bush has said repeatedly that U.S. soldiers will leave only when their job is finished and Iraqi forces can take over.

Last week, America's top general, Air Force Gen. Richard Myers, said rebels were attacking 50 or 60 times a day in Iraq -- about the same as a year ago. Sunday, a suicide bomber killed 15 people at a funeral procession at the northern Iraqi town of Talafar.

Al-Rubaie said the new Iraqi government was determined to quell violence in Iraq by the end of this year.

"I think we are winning -- on the winning course, there is no doubt about it. The level of violence is not measured only by the number of explosions every day, or the number of casualties," he said.

He added: "There is no shadow of doubt in my mind, that by the end of the year, we would have achieved a lot, and probably the back of the insurgency has already been broken."

"Al-Rubaie said the new Iraqi government was determined to quell violence in Iraq by the end of this year."

I am taking everything we hear with caution. We must remember the new fledging interim government has a lot of things to sort through. So much has to be considered in so many ways, how to continue to build their crumbled infrastructure, how to fully equip them with an army that not only can protect their borders and continue to squelch the internal rebellion, but how this military presence should interact with neighboring countries, and western countries in particular. How much Iraqi special forces, budding airforce, and security police units will be needed to protect their power distribution grids, and oil refineries, pipe lines etc.. As has been said many times, Iraq is not a tiny place. Not huge but enough main areas throughout Iraq containing large populations, commercial infrastructure etc.. How does one totaly eliminate both the foreign influences such as Z-man, as well as the various inhouse insurgent organizations, then protect those vital assets Iraq requires for a future source of revenues in the way of selling mostly oil. How much, since now they are going to be one nation under a democractically elected federal goverment, find the means to provide modern safe water treatment and sewage facilities to the whole country where required. The lists are long. And in all their new budding military and police units must figure.
For all we know, Mowaffak Al-Rubaie may simply be speaking in the most broad terms and simply have made a comment that is meant to bolster an illusian that the government has everything under control. For what he said is not new news. We have been hearing like comments being advertised for at least two months now.
At any rate, I am sure we all hope things will work out well for the new Iraq, and that they will consider America to be friends and not oppressors. What are all those that hate us going to do when our troops are no longer there? Guess they will need a new set of excuses to find ways to continue being assholes. The Arab mind is a remote thing, bottled up in the remote deserts of 4000 BC and earlier. I write my comments with the full realization of all the agonies these peoples have expeirenced under Saddam and before him, and their natural pride, like any peoples not to have foreign troops in their land. But enough is enough already. It is up to this government and the to be fully elected and permenant govenrment they will have to bring out the good America and her allies did for these peoples. If they turn on us. Then obviously all those coalition forces who died, and where terribly injured, did so in vain.

"are we going to leave a base in Iraq or not?"

Perhaps post #9 might address a few issues that tie into what your question demands.

As for maintian "a base". The question is hard to answer. A single base or couple basis could be maintained to house our military for future intercourse with the Iraqi Army. There is no way we can fully equiped them within a year, from a hardware standpoint. Permit me one or two examples.
1. Will Iraq wish to construct an air defense grid as they had under Saddam? If the answer is yes, then if we are to be involved and not the Russians or French, for instance, we would be required to keep US Army and Airforce units there for perhaps a year or more to train them in using the equipment we sold them.
2. What if they desired to purchase American built fixed and rotary wing aircraft for a new Iraqi Airforce. Again, this would require time to train them in how to use our equipement and air tactics etc.. Easily a year's worth of effort. Then do they wish us to stay and be partners in protecting their land as well as giving us permission to maintain a presence for a continued effort to monitor the mideast. For instance would we eventually be allowed to have a base to operate AWACS out of? Ya never know what is in the works. Will we be invited to work closely with the new Iraqi Intellegience both at government levels as well as at a military level. If so, you can imagine we would maintain in place various groups from the Army, Navy,Airforce, and perhaps the Marine Corps. to work with their folks.

So your question is quite valid but not so easy to provide solid knowledgable answers to. It is anyones guess, as what will unfold in the next two years or so in Iraq.
One things for sure. Once they start to make big bucks on the oil market, like all mideast countries they are going to ask for someone to step in and build up their military and internal security needs. Hopefully this time around it will be the USA that gets the welcome carpet and not the Russian and French.

"IMHO, we will have little US spec-ops FOBs inside Iraqi bases for a long, long time. I just came from one and they are working together great. The regular forces are going to need even more long-term training, and are still way behind the curve."
Thank you for serving. I think your humble opinion bears much weight. Glad to hear you got back from pit safe and sound.

Just seems a natural progression that we would in a year or so, keep a very small footprint and maintain a number of bases, for the many reasons you, I, others could name. We cannot just pull out of Iraq as some would hope could happen. It just doesn't work that way. The whole object at this juncture in time is to build Iraq's forces up, continue to engcourage their path to a fully democratic secular ran government both at federal as well as provincial levels, and set up our spook shops to monitor the mid east in more detail then was previously possible. People in our Intel orgs have been complaining that have not had the means to provide good intel on mid east due to closed boarders. OK, here is our chance. It is in the vital interests of the United States to not only to maintain a military presence in Iraq for continued Iraqi support, but to set up our spook shops there. It is our way into the mid east as never before possible. For those that would say enough is enough, see you just want to start more trouble, we have no business there, get out. Well perhaps those with that opinion have no concept as to why we must do it. They are the same types that will come back an piss and moan that our CIA, whatever, are doing a lousy job. Now a golden opportunity may be handed us on a plate. Hope it is not politizized as usual.

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