Posted on 05/01/2005 6:19:00 AM PDT by MississippiMasterpiece
President Bush made it clear last week that he sees no quick fixes to the nation's energy woes. The problem has been long in coming, the argument goes, and so will the solutions. But if history is any guide, there is one thing he could do immediately: bring back the 55 miles-per-hour speed limit.
It has been done before. Along with record oil and gasoline prices, improvements in fuel efficiency and a lasting economic recession, speed limits helped curb fuel consumption for the first time in American postwar history between 1974 and 1984.
Of course, energy eventually became cheap again, the economy expanded and Americans became complacent and unwilling to make more sacrifices.
Instead of opting for small fuel-efficient cars, people switched to large sport utility vehicles and larger pickups. As drivers groaned and states fought for their right to speed, the limit was raised.
While oil consumption in most industrialized nations has either leveled off or declined, in the United States, oil demand has soared 38 percent since the first oil shock of 1973.
The Bush administration's focus over the last four years has been to increase the supply of oil and natural gas, which are also priorities for the energy industry, instead of finding ways to cut back on energy demand, which until very recently has been left out of the picture.
"We are in a boxing match, and the president keeps one hand tied to his back," said Steven Nadel, the executive director for the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, a nonprofit research group in Washington. "We're punching with supplies and not using demand. We're at a disadvantage."
Other industrialized countries, especially in Europe, have been much more successful than the United States and have managed to actually lower oil demand, or at least keep it in check. That comes from higher diesel use and higher taxes. In France and Germany, a gallon of gasoline sells for as much as $6, with taxes accounting for about 80 percent of that.
Few politicians in America might risk ridicule or rejection by explicitly supporting higher taxes on gasoline, one of the surest ways to limit the nation's dependence on oil.
"Even the least outrageous gasoline tax would have choked off some demand, and the money would have gone to our own government instead of being transferred overseas," said Robert K. Kaufmann, a professor of geography at the Center for Energy and Environmental Studies at Boston University. "Of course, that would have to involve personal sacrifice, which is off the table politically."
There are other ways to curb consumption that may be only slightly less challenging, analysts say. One would be to increase the average mileage per gallon requirement. After Congress passed legislation forcing automakers to act in 1975, average mileage almost doubled to 27.5 miles a gallon in 1987 from 14 in 1972. But it has since slipped back to 24 because of S.U.V.'s, and Congress shows no inclination to toughen the standards.
Another way to sharply reduce demand - and improve mileage - would be to encourage drivers to buy diesel cars, which offer as much as 60 percent more fuel efficiency, said Theodore R. Eck, an energy consultant and former chief economist at the Amoco oil company.
"The neat thing here is that this is off-the-shelf technology," he said. But the trade-off to diesel fuels also includes higher emissions of nitrate oxide, a pollutant that is responsible for smog.
In a recent speech, President Bush suggested that diesel cars might be made eligible for similar income tax credits as hybrid cars, which are quickly turning into best sellers with long waiting lists.
The present predicament behind high oil prices is quite different than the oil shocks of the 1970's and 1980's, which were a result of producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cutting oil supplies. Today, the price shock comes from rapidly increasing demand, driven largely by China, but also by the United States and its strong car culture.
After rising 33 percent in the last year, crude oil prices in New York slipped below $50 a barrel on Friday for the first time in 10 weeks. They closed down nearly 4 percent at $49.72 a barrel.
Still, Americans can expect to pay record prices for gasoline this summer. According to the latest national average compiled by the Energy Department, gasoline prices at the pump averaged $2.24 a gallon, up 42 cents from last year; they are expected to touch a record $2.35 a gallon this summer.
Polls show that higher gasoline prices are increasingly hurting Americans, and the president is pressing Congress to revive an energy bill that has been stalled for four years.
Since the last energy shock of the 1980's, the economy as a whole has shifted toward services and away from heavy industry and is now less dependent on oil than it once was. But that has been more than offset by the rise of oil demand for the transportation sector, which accounts for two of every three barrels of crude oil consumed here; gasoline alone amounts to half the nation's oil consumption.
"We've had this situation building up for years, and yet the focus continues to be on the very long term," said Shirley Neff, an adjunct professor at Columbia University and a former economist on the Senate Energy Committee. "We have to focus on demand and be more efficient in our energy use. We need something like an Apollo program for the transportation sector."
But restricting demand might also weaken economic growth, an unpalatable prospect for any government, especially at a time when some are already blaming energy costs for a slowdown in growth.
"It's true that there is a limit to what you could achieve through a traditional energy policy in one or two years," said Fridtjof Unander, an analyst with the International Energy Agency, which advises industrialized nations on ways to reduce their consumption.
The 55 miles-per-hour speed limit came as a result of the 1973 Arab oil embargo. The Nixon administration ordered states to lower their maximum limit to save fuel at a time when the first oil shock threatened to bring the economy to a standstill.
After steadily rising each year, gasoline demand suddenly stopped growing in 1974 and remained nearly flat for the next decade, keeping oil consumption in check.
Roland Hwang, the vehicles policy director at the Natural Resources Defense Council in San Francisco, estimated the savings of the speed limit in 1983 at 2.5 billion gallons of gasoline and diesel fuel, or 2.2 percent of the total use for these types of fuels.
But as gas lines faded from people's memories and energy prices went down, the federal speed limit was relaxed in 1987, allowing states to set higher caps of 65 miles an hour. Once more, gasoline consumption surged.
Smaller efforts today could make a difference. For example, driving at 10 miles an hour above the 65 miles-per-hour limit increases fuel consumption by 15 percent; inflating tires properly cuts gasoline use by 2 percent; keeping engines idle while in line wastes millions of gallons.
The trouble is that few drivers bother with these suggestions, Mr. Hwang said. "People are basically too lazy to pump their tires up."
I'll gladly pay unrestricted fair-market prices of up to $5 per gallon for my FREEDOM to drive Autobahn style where it's safe, thankyouverymuch, NYTimes.
And unrestricted fair-market is the big issue, thankyouverymuch, enviro-wacko Marxists.
ANWR not A.N.S.W.E.R.
Funny that the authors don't mention that Germany, along with high gasoline taxes, also has no speed limits on the Autobahns.
In Germany, the highways are built much better than here in the states. There's much better drainage, and much less of a gradient or curve allowed. In the United States, when we build a highway, it's pretty much just slap down asphalt over the ground. Highways in the United States can have sharp curves, steep hills, and the like. In Germany, on the unlimited speed portions, there are strict limits to this type of thing. Instead of going down a hill and then up a hill, the Germans will build a bridge over a valley to avoid a grade.
This is of course incredibly expensive, but it allows Germans to drive with unlimited speed limits. On may highways in America, even if the road were clear of all cars, driving 100 mph would be incredibly dangerous. Take 95 through Connecticut, for example.
So the Germans have high taxes, but it allows them to drive at very fast speeds, saving time for drivers. Of course, Germany is a lot smaller, so this might be an acceptable trade-off. In the United States, with a much lower population density, this might not work out so well.
The deceased use no oil or gas. Maybe these guys should sacrafice for the rest of us and off themselves.
If enough do it, demand will go down, and will prices.
Sounds like a win-win to me.
Make the NYT slow the speed of their presses first!
The loss in productivity from such a limit would dwarf any fuel "savings". The answer is to open up the Floida Gulf and ANWR for drilling, the Rockies for LNG exploration, and open 5 new refineries and one nuclear plant every single year.
Might as well adopt the "Kyoto" method and 'buy' speeding credits from slower drivers to drive over 55.
Well there you go...all we need is higher taxes, that's the cure all for every problem.
Not.
It's amazing how people can work in socialism to every "piece" they manage to spew forth,
According to an atrical from the NYT shown here yesterday, the French and Germans use ~66% of the oil per person that the US does. Assuming that all of that difference is due to the higher road fuel taxes, we'd only get a 33% reduction from the large tax increse.
Waaaay back when, the Journal of Irreproducible Results printed a spoof research paper on the 55 mph speed limit arguing that passing a law that everyone drive backwards in reverse gear would result in a net creation of gasoline!
(Makes more sense than the NY Times!)
Now, this would be a great idea. Add to that some kind of override of the California emission standards for diesels, and we could save a lot of fuel.
Modern diesels are efficient, powerful and clean. They're selling like hotcakes in Europe, but we don't see most of the really neat engines over here. BMW has a new twin-turbo diesel I-6 which makes 272 hp and 413 ft-lbs of torque. They put a particulate filter on it, to further clean up the emissions, allowing the 535d to meet Euro 4 standards.
Geesh! I guess the guys NYT have never driven on Rt 80 in northern NJ during rush hour. If your not driving at least 80 mph they'll drive over you!
Just posting to say: LOVE YOUR TAGLINE!
That chart only works in a perfect world where all of our wages increased the same as inflation. If you account for all the downsizing and pay cuts that have taken place in the last 25 years we may be paying $5.00 or more per gallon(and I'm guessing here).
Synchronize traffic signals, THEN we MIGHT consider this.
Sheesh!!
Here's how the conversations at work usually go:
Librat -"Boy! These gas prices! That Bush is sure one rotten SOB!"
Flagg -"Umm, what were you paying per gallon of gas in 2000 during Clinton's last year in The White House?"
Librat -"About seventy-four cents a gallon."
Flagg -"That's right. And now you're making up the difference."
Librat -"Wait a minute. Presidents can't influence gas prices."
Flagg -"Then, justify that first statement about Bush being rotten."
*crickets*
Rising gas prices required businesses to pass the cost onto their comstomers. That leads to inflation. The best thing the government can do is decrease the tax on gasoline and deisel to keep the prices down for EVERYONE. This would help the public more than reducing income tax.
I have to wonder if this is an innocent typo (should have read '10 mph above the 55 mph limit') or a deliberate deception (comparing mileage driving at 75 versus 55)? Based on the source, I suspect the latter.
55 mph speed limit?...Hell's Bells!...How will I get to work in the morning on time...in 25 mph freeway traffic??
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