NYP: LEBANON'S HOPE, by Amir Taheri

New York Post ^ | April 28, 2005 | AMIR TAHERI

[OESY]

With just four days be fore the deadline set by the United Nations' Security Council was to expire, Syria completed its military withdrawal from Lebanon this week, ending an occupation that had began almost 30 years ago.

The event, a setback for President Bashar al-Assad's Ba'athist regime, is a major victory for pro-reform forces in both Lebanon and Syria.

In Lebanon, the pro-reform movement has already scored a number of victories. It has brought down a Syrian-appointed prime minister, forced the creation of a neutral caretaker Cabinet and quashed attempts at postponing next month's election. The opposition has also forced the authorities to accept an international investigation of the February assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

More importantly, perhaps, the anti-Syrian coalition has also succeeded in preventing the passage of a new electoral law designed to gerrymander many constituencies to give the anti-democratic parties an automatic majority in the next parliament.

The ending of the Syrian military occupation is also a major success for international diplomacy. The United States, the European Union, the Arab states and the United Nations worked together in an unprecedented show of unity....

Ultimately, Lebanon's Shiites would need to sort out their own internal differences before they can seek a just share of power in the emerging democratic system. Many in both Amal and Hezbollah realize that the policy of acting as surrogates for either Syria or Iran has cut them off from the rest of the Lebanese mosaic.

Because of their demographic strength, the Shiites could demand a position of leadership in Lebanon as their counterparts have done in Iraq. But before they can do that, they need to redefine their relationship with both Syria and Iran. The new emerging Shiite bloc could help them do so.

[jveritas]

Because of their demographic strength, the Shiites could demand a position of leadership in Lebanon as their counterparts have done in Iraq.

Not nearly. The Shiite in Lebanon are somewhere between 35% to 40% of the population where as in Iraq they are approximately 60% of the population.

The Lebanese Christians are somwhere between 30% to 35% of the population but they lead more influence than the Shiites because they have much more wealth and many more educated people.

[Patrick_k]

"More importantly, perhaps, the anti-Syrian coalition has also succeeded in preventing the passage of a new electoral law designed to gerrymander many constituencies to give the anti-democratic parties an automatic majority in the next parliament."

Complete contrary to the fact that today April 28, the pro-Syrian coalition (mainly Shi'a Amal and Hezbollah) has succeeded in preventing the anti-Syrian coalition from presenting the draft of a new law based on smaller constituencies aimed at preventing the tsunamis of the gerrymandered larger ones. Thus the electoral law of 2000 will be applied. It is very useful to know that, by the testimony of the then PM Mr. Hoss, this law of 2000 was diktated by the syrian ruler of Lebanon Gen. Ghazi Kanaan.

This article of the NYP is totally biased and lobbies for a shi'a take-over of power in Lebanon, calling them "Lebanon's hope" in its title.

You can draw all the conclusions you want.