Iran plans to knock out U.S. with 1 nuclear bomb

JOSEPH FARAH'S G2 BULLETIN ^ | April 25, 2005 | Joseph Farah

[Nov3]

Think of more like a planar source than a point source.

[mmercier]

read this whole string, the novel "war day" comes to mind for some reason... i'll have to dig it out for yet another reread.

[TalonDJ]

The Electromagnetic Pulse strategy to knock out the U.S. infrastructure may have been viable in 1980, but since then the military-industrial complex has developed "hardened" chips that can withstand such an attack.

Speaking from as someone with knowledge of chip usage in the military-industrial complex... Sure we HAVE chips like that but we don't USE them for systems on the ground. Wall-street does not run on them. Defense research agencies do not run on them. In short, just about everything that would be really bad to lose in the military industrial complex is susceptible to EMP. I can't speak for power plant controls or the strategic missile command but most of our stuff does not use hardened chips or any kind.

Short lecture on rad hardening, there are many kinds of rad hardness. Most of what is developed and used is designed around cosmic radiation. This is because the primary use for rad hard chips and electronics is aircraft. Anything at high altitude is is subject to the random effect of or having it's data corrupted by stray cosmic radiation. At ground level that risk is low (although it does happen), low enough that steps not rarely taken to counter act it (except is uber critical systems). This kind of radiation hardening would NOT protect from a nuclear blast. Cosmic radiation at high altitude and even in space is a statistical event and is mostly one single 'bit' of data getting randomly changed. The chance of two bits changing at once is very low and only sometimes taken into account. The risk of more than two usually is not protected against. The cost of protecting against such things is rather high. In addition the speed and capability of chips which have such protection lags behind the faster unprotected chips but a significant margin. The performance lag and the cost increase is why almost nothing on the surface of the planet uses such chips. Note that even systems that DO use such things are not protected from a nuclear blast. Such a blast would cause must more data corruption than those systems are designed to take. Also those only compensate for the radiation effects and not what we call an EMP. The ONLY thing deigned to take and EMP is something designed to take a direct nuclear hit. Sorry to break it to you but we design almost nothing to do that. Most electronics is designed and developed in the commercial market. The so called military industrial complex has lots of cool toys up it's sleeve but does use most of them. Even at a company developing such devices all that data and work for day to day operations is stored on normal off-the-shelf computing equipment.

All that aside it is still debatable how much damage and EMP would really cause. Testing with EMPs is mostly based on non nuclear EMP weapons development. So there is not really good data on just how much damage one of those could do. I suspect it is far less than this kind of doom-saying article leads us to think. Desktop computers are surrounded by a grounded metal shell (FCC rules) and protected by fused power supplies and often surge suppressing power bars. Now I am not well versed in the effects of a nuclear EMP but this kind of design is at least th basics of what is needed to protect against one.

As the article does say the biggest risk is damaged power distribution equipment. So what we are facing is really some damaged computers and some size of blackout that might last a while. Bad but hardly the end of life as we know it.

[TalonDJ]

the fact ALL military-spec systems are impervious to EMP detonations

Military spec systems are NOT all designed for such things. Most do have enough RF shielding that they might be ok but very little military hardware is designed to take a nuclear EMP. I think the COULD take it do to normal RF shielding and fuses&breakers but it is inaccurate to think the are designed to take it. Some are, most are not.

[Rodney King]

Our response should be that if any nation detonates even one warhead on or above the US, the result will be a total retaliation with everything that we've got.

[Noachian]

What Ballistic Missile Defenses(BMDs) we will have by the time the Mullahs get this thing, if they ever do, should be sufficient to stop a small attack ...

I have no doubt that the military has more than one device they keep hidden up their sleeves that will take care of a small scale attack. My concern isn't with the military, but with the politicians.

Suppose that Iran was stupid enough to launch a missile this way, and we destroyed it before it could do any damage. Then what? We'd probably launch conventional weapons to destroy their launch facilities and weapons staging depots leaving some big holes in the desert but otherwise leaving the leadership intact. We're spread too thin to mount a full scale invasion right now, and the liberals would whine about holes in the ground being "good enough".

So, what would that type of response tell any other despot who has a nuke or two? That's why we need a standard response to a nuclear threat that would replace the MAD concept.

[El Gato]

Which I think makes my point. First, it would have to be a very large device, which Iran cannot get into space, and the effect would be largely limited to power grids which have safety mechanism built in. It would probably be similar to a solar coronal mass ejection striking the earth, inconvenient, but not calamatious

No it would also blow out transistors on every chip in every civilian electronics system. Cars might have some protection, because the under hood environment is pretty hostile to be with, electromagnetically speaking, although not at the levels of EMP. Ditto for electrical control systems, but less so. It's not just power systems that are affected. If you had line of sight to the blast, there is another effect called "TREE" transient radiation effects on electronics, which has to do with the prompt gamma rays from a nuclear burst causing transient effects in semiconductor materials, but high altitude EMP is more than just line of sight, because the electrons created by the gamma rays (actually knocked out of their parent atoms) move along lines of the earth's magnetic field, and can cause disruption over large (continent wide for a large explosion) areas. Even a "small" blast will cause EMP effects over a large area, just not so large or so severe as with a large bomb.

[El Gato]

Suppose that Iran was stupid enough to launch a missile this way, and we destroyed it before it could do any damage. Then what? We'd probably launch conventional weapons to destroy their launch facilities and weapons staging depots leaving some big holes in the desert but otherwise leaving the leadership intact. We're spread too thin to mount a full scale invasion right now, and the liberals would whine about holes in the ground being "good enough".

Smart bunker buster bombs can go after the leadership as well. Not many "leaders" are as good at moving around as Saddam, nor do many of them have so many places to hide.

[El Gato]

So what we are facing is really some damaged computers and some size of blackout that might last a while. Bad but hardly the end of life as we know it.

No major city is more than a few days from starvation. If the trucks and the trains aren't moving, it will get mighty hungry in those cities mighty fast. Even military vehicles would likely be affected, because logistics support equipment is generally not hardened the way weapons systems are. Even Air Force transports aren't as hardened as bombers, fighters and tankers.

[El Gato]

I can't speak for power plant controls or the strategic missile command but most of our stuff does not use hardened chips or any kind.

Strategic systems, including the command control, are generally designed with EMP in mind, for obvious reasons. However the MAD philosphy, as opposed to war winning, generally meant that only the actual warfighting equipment was hardened, which includes C4I, but not logistics, R&D, etc.

[Wallace T.]

Were the Iranians, or another nation that had greater nuclear and missile capacity (like China or Russia), willing and able to explode an atomic device with the same power as the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki 50 kilometers over Kansas City, for example, how widespread would the area affected by EMP be? Is there a formula that would determine what the effect would be in Kansas City, or in cities elsewhere in the United States?

[GDAI]

Maybe Iran doesn't want to nuke the us, maybe they don't want war and haven't got any wmd, just like another country currently getting shot to $#!%. Maybe we should stop listening to the media and start thinking for ourselves. Come on seriously just one nuke to cripple the whole country, sounds like bs

[Darksheare]

"Maybe Iran doesn't want to nuke the us, maybe they don't want war and haven't got any wmd, just like another country currently getting shot to $#!%."

Hmm.. lessee.. 'Death to America!' yeah, the Iranian mullahs don't want war.
That's why they train terrorists, fund terror, hide terrorists, and generally make a nuisance of themselves.
Yes, they have WMD.
You missed the Deulfer report obviously on the other country you mention by implication.
And the only people being shot up... are terrorists.
Gee, who'da thunk it!
http://www.foia.cia.gov/duelfer/Iraqs_WMD_Vol3.pdf

[July 4th]

Records are pretty well protected. About a decade ago now, I did temp work at a "nuclear-safe" data center that housed electronic records for banks, hospitals, etc. We called it "the bunker" because it actually was one - several stories underground under concrete and steel.

And my watch is mechanical. :)

[Edward Watson]

Well, you know, it's actually true that a high atmospheric nuclear explosion WILL burn out any unhardened circuits via a surge of power. Anything that can transmit electricity will be affected. A 120-mile high burst centered above Nebraska will create an EMP cone covering the entire continental US, most of the lower half of Canada and most of Mexico. The EMP needs a direct line of sight and travels at the speed of light (IIRC). It will also disrupt the ionosphere for a while, wrecking radar and radio.

The problem Iran, or anyone else faces is most military systems are protected from EMP. The same thing goes for power plants (especially nuclear) and the major fiber-based telecom networks. The redundancy of the internet and it's backbones will allow it to continue, virtually unchanged.

The most serious effect of an EMP will be the civilian population. While our homes will have power within 72 hours tops; we won't have any electrical applicance that will actually work. All our TVs, radios, computers, cars and so forth won't be working and will need new circuits.

The best way to preserve some of our essential electronic equipment would be to wrap certain items in aluminum foil and place them within Faraday Cages. This will reroute the EMP around the exterior of the cage, leaving all items inside, perfectly safe.

I suspect shipping containers would be equally effective in shielding electronic equipment from the effects of an EMP. So, the best place to obtain unaffected electronics would be at the docks or wherever a container was kept closed.

[granite]

BTTT

[granite]

ping

[A CA Guy]

EMP would not effect our military who shields everything including the important computers.

There is no way one nuke will have a 3000-5000 mile range.

[michaelt]

The "remote control device" in question is an old Zenith Space Command TV remote.

[goldstategop]

I agree. We will have to act. I don't think it can be put off much longer. These people are serious when they swear they plan to destroy the United States and they should be taken at their word.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")