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To: AntiGuv
What if they really are containing the outbreak? My guesstimation is that we're in the 14th-16th generation of transmission and that's right about what was thought to be the upper limit of Marburg viability.

Truthfully, my knowledge base isn't large enough to be able to answer your question. I've asked Dr. Niman about it, in an email. I'll post his answer.

54 posted on 04/21/2005 6:51:31 PM PDT by Judith Anne (Thank you St. Jude for favors granted.)
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To: Judith Anne

..."Unfortunately the numbers are going up. We don't see any signs of it being under control. We know we're in for a hard fight," says Daigle. "Whether we're in the peak or the downside, I don't think our experts know. But we know it's not contained."

The virus could lead to a serious crisis if it spreads worldwide. With Angola's health system in ruins, destroyed by 27 years of civil war, the trucks searching for the sick are the front line in this deadly epidemic.

But a public health campaign promoting public hygience has had some success. Crowds clamour for government handouts of disenfectant. It's one way to slow the spread of the disease.

The bodies of the dead are potential viral bombs, says Dr. William Pereira of the UN World Health Organization. "This is an extremely contagious virus. And contact with secretions, the body's fluids, may be very dangerous."...



55 posted on 04/21/2005 7:00:20 PM PDT by EBH
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To: Judith Anne

..."Unfortunately the numbers are going up. We don't see any signs of it being under control. We know we're in for a hard fight," says Daigle. "Whether we're in the peak or the downside, I don't think our experts know. But we know it's not contained."

The virus could lead to a serious crisis if it spreads worldwide. With Angola's health system in ruins, destroyed by 27 years of civil war, the trucks searching for the sick are the front line in this deadly epidemic.

But a public health campaign promoting public hygience has had some success. Crowds clamour for government handouts of disenfectant. It's one way to slow the spread of the disease.

The bodies of the dead are potential viral bombs, says Dr. William Pereira of the UN World Health Organization. "This is an extremely contagious virus. And contact with secretions, the body's fluids, may be very dangerous."...


http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/1114100511768_109509711/?hub=TopStories


56 posted on 04/21/2005 7:01:00 PM PDT by EBH
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To: Judith Anne

The million dollar question right now is, "Will Marburg burn itself out?" Any light Dr. Niman can shed on this question would be most welcome. Glad you've got the connection.

I had not heard 14 to 16 generations as the previously believed upper limit for Marburg transmission, but that would obviously be great news. (I seem to recall 10 for Ebola, but that is definitely not certain.)

In this case, I would want to know if we have current evidence to support any previously estimated transmission limits. Given the much higher mortality rate for this variant of Marburg, you have to wonder what else has changed as well.


58 posted on 04/21/2005 7:06:35 PM PDT by EternalHope (Boycott everything French forever. Including their vassal nations.)
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