Posted on 04/18/2005 7:21:31 AM PDT by aculeus
A HUGE asteroid which is on a course to miss the Earth by a whisker in 2029 could go round its orbit again and score a direct hit a few years later.
Astronomers have calculated that the 1,000ft-wide asteroid called 2004 MN4 will pass by the Earth at a distance of between 15,000 and 25,000 miles — about a tenth of the distance between the Earth and the Moon and close enough to be seen with the naked eye.
Although they are sure that it will miss us, they are worried about the disturbance that such a close pass will give to the asteroid’s orbit. It might put 2004 MN4 on course for a collision in 2034 or a year or two later: the unpredictability of its behaviour means that the danger might not become apparent until it is too late.
As a safety precaution, some experts are calling for 2004 MN4 to be “tagged” with a transponder that would constantly radio its position. Scientists hope that this would provide enough warning to allow emergency action if necessary, possibly by diverting the object away from the Earth.Other instruments on the probe could provide information about its composition.
Benny Peiser, from Liverpool John Moores University, who is an expert on asteroid hazards, said: “We don’t know what that asteroid is made of and that might influence the way it’s affected by the Earth’s gravitational pull. There are other close approaches, in 2034 and 2035. In all likelihood it will produce an orbit that will not intercept the Earth, but we don’t know.”
The asteroid is big enough to cause damage on a regional scale, with an expected impact equivalent to a 1,000-megatonne explosion. It was discovered last June and its orbit plotted in detail by December. Startled astronomers calculated at one point that its chances of a direct hit on Friday, April 13, 2029, were 1 in 38. But additional calculations have set those fears to rest. The asteroid is now expected to miss but come close enough to be below the altitude of TV satellites. It should be visible as a rapidly moving point of light.
Brian Marsden, of the Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, expects the close encounter to increase the frequency of the asteroid’s orbit, creating the possibility of further close encounters every five to nine years.
An interceptor mission is feasible and Dr Peiser said that an opportunity would arise in 2012, when 2004 MN4 will be ten million miles from Earth. “That’s not a big distance as far as space missions go,” he said.
“This is most likely not the object with our number on it, but one day we will have to address this question and we’ll need the technology. A transponder mission should not be too complicated or costly, and would provide a lot of vital data.”
Copyright 2005 Times Newspapers Ltd.
Yeah - put a radio beacon on the darned thing, just in case it gets lost!
No, put Dan Rat-her aboard and let him keep us informed.
Here too.
(s) The UN will promply call for Kyoto II to call to dealing with industrial polution which causes the increases in gravity attacting the asteroid. The UN will set up a trading/taxation system which provides for the trading gravity credits from poorer nations to richer socialist nations. Nations which do not sign on to the Kyoto II gravity protocol VILL BE PUNISHED!(/s)
Are you telling me that we don't have the capacity to launch a nuclear warhead (or a sufficient combination of them) to an asteroid, with some sort of timing device that would let us blow the thing up, or at least deflect it? Or have I been watching too many Bruce Willis movies?
Actually, they used the orbit to find previously unnoted observations of the same object which extended the baseline allowing a more accurate calculation.
And it will be 1 day after my 62nd! Won't even reach retirement now !!
I don't know what the big deal is. The thing is only 1000 feet wide, NUKE it into tiny bits 10 feet wide. We will have a little light show and everyone will go back to bed. People will complain they missed it because of it being cloudy, and still others will complain that they can't even see the stars because of all the light polution. Of course, there will be other more important topics at the time, like the nude queer president doing disgusting acts in public, or something.
Actually, it is rated at larger than that.
http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/
Sometimes rated at 400 meters. Now given a rating of "4" on the Torino scale (unprecedented)
I'm not one to quibble between whether it is less dangerous because it is 1000 meters or 1200 meters wide.
We cannot do anything about it except watch. But I find the subject interesting. Maybe the scientists of the world will be drawn together by this, instead of this nationalistic competing in the arena of weaponizing space.
Maybe Someone is giving us a chance to get our act together. Or maybe Malachy was correct and this is our next to last Pope before Rome is destroyed. He is not the only prophet who foresaw catastrophe in the Mediterranean basin.
"Deadly Asteroid Blues"
I woke up this mornin,
The earth it was gone.
Nothing all around me,
I was all alone.
My dog wasn't barkin,
My head wasn't clear.
I went on back to sleep,
The end it was here.
It got me to thinkin,
Where did it all go.
Then I did remember,
Asteroids, Oh no!
I got the Earth’s gravity may lure deadly asteroid blues.
When that big old space rock hit it even took my shoes.
Everything is gone so there's nothing left to lose.
I got the Earth’s gravity may lure deadly asteroid blues.
Found I was just dreamin,
Everthing's OK.
Just some chicken little,
They are just that way.
I got the Earth’s gravity may lure deadly asteroid blues.
When that big old space rock hit it even took my shoes.
Everything is gone so there's nothing left to lose.
I got the Earth’s gravity may lure deadly asteroid blues.
Blind Mumblin Conspiracy Guy 4/18/05
We don't the asteroids composition so we don't know what is needed to shatter it into small enough pieces for burn up on re-entry. It could be a gravel pile held together by gravity or solid iron. If it's not done right, then the Earth gets hit by a shotgun blast instead of a rifle bullet. Since it will be passing so close to Earth. a mission to tag it for accurate tracking and to determine it's composition and other properties isn't a bad idea.
> Are you telling me that we don't have the capacity to launch a nuclear warhead (or a sufficient combination of them) to an asteroid, with some sort of timing device that would let us blow the thing up, or at least deflect it? Or have I been watching too many Bruce Willis movies?
Too many movies. It's not as simple as setting a bomb down and hitting the button... you have to have a good idea of the internal structure of the thing, and you can't get that from the ground or a cheap probe. You have to do a good survey, and then figure out where to set off bombs, and then do so with some precision. Keep in mind: for the purposes fo deflecting an asteroid, the proper place fora bomb is *above* the surface, not *on* or *below*, and putting the bomb in the right place is tricky. See the recent DART mission for an example of how $110 million dollars can put a precision autonomous spacecraft in the wrogn location.
I thought the prophecy was that the one being selected now will be the last one. Surrounded and killed by enemies of Christianity.
Good point. It'll get rid of Jar-Jar!
Bring it on!
I guess if the tagging is done right, we find out real information on the asteroid, and we have enough time to evaluate what really needs to be done, if indeed anything needs to be done about it.
And that then sky has a lot more scatter from electric lighting than existed before 1900. How many people living in NY can actually see stars anymore?
Only if it has accurate enough data. The accuracy of the existing orbital elements is instrument, not numerically, limited.
This is all Bush's fault!
Too hard and dangerous to blow it up. It would make more sense to sprinkle it with talcum powder years in advance and let the increased radiation pressure from the sun blow it off course.
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