Posted on 04/18/2005 7:21:31 AM PDT by aculeus
A HUGE asteroid which is on a course to miss the Earth by a whisker in 2029 could go round its orbit again and score a direct hit a few years later.
Astronomers have calculated that the 1,000ft-wide asteroid called 2004 MN4 will pass by the Earth at a distance of between 15,000 and 25,000 miles — about a tenth of the distance between the Earth and the Moon and close enough to be seen with the naked eye.
Although they are sure that it will miss us, they are worried about the disturbance that such a close pass will give to the asteroid’s orbit. It might put 2004 MN4 on course for a collision in 2034 or a year or two later: the unpredictability of its behaviour means that the danger might not become apparent until it is too late.
As a safety precaution, some experts are calling for 2004 MN4 to be “tagged” with a transponder that would constantly radio its position. Scientists hope that this would provide enough warning to allow emergency action if necessary, possibly by diverting the object away from the Earth.Other instruments on the probe could provide information about its composition.
Benny Peiser, from Liverpool John Moores University, who is an expert on asteroid hazards, said: “We don’t know what that asteroid is made of and that might influence the way it’s affected by the Earth’s gravitational pull. There are other close approaches, in 2034 and 2035. In all likelihood it will produce an orbit that will not intercept the Earth, but we don’t know.”
The asteroid is big enough to cause damage on a regional scale, with an expected impact equivalent to a 1,000-megatonne explosion. It was discovered last June and its orbit plotted in detail by December. Startled astronomers calculated at one point that its chances of a direct hit on Friday, April 13, 2029, were 1 in 38. But additional calculations have set those fears to rest. The asteroid is now expected to miss but come close enough to be below the altitude of TV satellites. It should be visible as a rapidly moving point of light.
Brian Marsden, of the Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, expects the close encounter to increase the frequency of the asteroid’s orbit, creating the possibility of further close encounters every five to nine years.
An interceptor mission is feasible and Dr Peiser said that an opportunity would arise in 2012, when 2004 MN4 will be ten million miles from Earth. “That’s not a big distance as far as space missions go,” he said.
“This is most likely not the object with our number on it, but one day we will have to address this question and we’ll need the technology. A transponder mission should not be too complicated or costly, and would provide a lot of vital data.”
Copyright 2005 Times Newspapers Ltd.
Come on, people! It is going to burn up in the atmosphere until it is no bigger than a chihuahua's head. Haven't you learned your lesson?
Like what?
possibly by diverting the object away from the Earth.
With what?
Very scary! ;)
Asteroids are like sharks, it's the one you don't see that is going to get you.
The thing that bothers me is the accuracy of their present measurements. If they are predicting that it will miss Earth by ~25,000 miles 24 years from now, and assuming an asteroid velocity of 22,000 mph, then their measurements must have an error less than 4.756e-6. Those are pretty accurate measurements. If the error is that big or larger, they have no basis to predict a miss this far out from the actual flyby.
That's great, it starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes, an aeroplane -
Lenny Bruce is not afraid. Eye of a hurricane, listen to yourself churn -
world serves its own needs, don't misserve your own needs. Feed it up a knock,
speed, grunt no, strength no. Ladder structure clatter with fear of height,
down height. Wire in a fire, represent the seven games in a government for
hire and a combat site. Left her, wasn't coming in a hurry with the furies
breathing down your neck. Team by team reporters baffled, trump, tethered
crop. Look at that low plane! Fine then. Uh oh, overflow, population,
common group, but it'll do. Save yourself, serve yourself. World serves its
own needs, listen to your heart bleed. Tell me with the rapture and the
reverent in the right - right. You vitriolic, patriotic, slam, fight, bright
light, feeling pretty psyched.
It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.
Six o'clock - TV hour. Don't get caught in foreign tower. Slash and burn,
return, listen to yourself churn. Lock him in uniform and book burning,
blood letting. Every motive escalate. Automotive incinerate. Light a candle,
light a motive. Step down, step down. Watch a heel crush, crush. Uh oh,
this means no fear - cavalier. Renegade and steer clear! A tournament,
a tournament, a tournament of lies. Offer me solutions, offer me alternatives
and I decline.
It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.
The other night I tripped a nice continental drift divide. Mount St. Edelite.
Leonard Bernstein. Leonid Breshnev, Lenny Bruce and Lester Bangs.
Birthday party, cheesecake, jelly bean, boom! You symbiotic, patriotic,
slam, but neck, right? Right.
It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine...fine...
(It's time I had some time alone)
Absolutely!! Everything else is GWs fault, right? Next thing you know he will be found guilty of poisoning John Paul II!!
I'll reinforce the roof.
Great REM song.
And Lu needs to start wearing a helmet when she goes out to poopie.
Yep.
'Experts' in WHAT??
Underwater basket weaving???
Like we are going to FORGET where it is?
Like it's going to go to STEALTH MODE??
Like Astronomers cannot plot the orbit after a few more obsevaions???
bump for later read
You sir; have NAILED it!!!!
(Kinda like one of those ST episodes where Wesley Crusher is about the only one not enslaved by the endorphin game....)
UHhhh...
Wouldn't have to KNOW he orbit alREADY to even THINK about putting anything ON it??
After all, it's 1000 FEET, NOT Mars sized
!!!!!
Wormwood! Rev 8:11
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