Marburg haemorrhagic fever in Angola - update 11

World Health Organization ^ | 13 April 2005 | WHO

[EBH]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1383294/posts

Ping go to that thread, there's a lot more cases. Post 19

[tet68]

From what I could find on the web, the city of Luanda
has a population of 1.5 million and there are cases
showing up in the slum outskirts.

It is NOT looking good.

[djf]

This is sounding bad. The reports seem to de-emphasize the fact that alot of infected and possibly exposed people are simply refusing to come to the hospitals, and reporting of the disease is very sketchy.

But the African news sites I've read say flat out it will not be controlled until the population aggresively reports it.

[EBH]

It is that fact, being reported by the people on the ground, that is having the most impact on the inability for the authorities to gain control. Even for all their education efforts they are losing the battle. IMHO...handing out pamphlets to people who can barely read isn't going to save their lives.

[djf]

Quite a few articles posted here:

http://www.luanda.com/

[EBH]

Thanks for the link. I took a quick look through and some of the items are a few days old. But it's interesting reading.

There are so many new sources reporting this and the information in each source is a little bit different, but in a way mostly the same. It's getting hard to seperate who is reporting accurate information. Or the situation is so fluid who knows what is right?

[bored at work]

I'll research this question but, how long is the incubation period? Anybody . . .

[Amalie]

Pinging, put me on a list if possible, and thanks again for your diligence...

[ordinaryguy]

The incubation period is five to ten days.

[2ndreconmarine]

That is still in the "noise" level when considering the deplorable conditions

I disagree. Check out the fit to the data:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1382511/posts?page=32#32

[politicket]

Ping for a check back on 6/30/05.

If there are even tens of thousands of cases then, yes, I will call it extremely serious. But we'll see how close they are to "6 million" by then...

[2ndreconmarine]

If it follows the growth projection curve, there will be nearly 6 million cases by 6/30/05

In all fairness, that was from my original calculations which had an e-folding time of 7 days. The revised calculation, based on more recent data, show an e-folding time of 9 days. It is a bit slower. The graphs show the projected results. We will see if the next set of data confirm this exponential growth rate (see my link above in post 30).

Also, these projections ASSUME that the growth rate will continue at the same rate it has for the past 3.5 months. We certainly don't know that. There may be saturation mechanisms that would slow it down or stop it.

[Covenantor]

done

[djf]

From WHO update #12, released an hour or so ago.

The isolation ward at the province's large 400-bed hospital, which has been specially equipped and staffed for the care of Marburg patients, is empty, despite the fact that cases and deaths are known to be occurring in the community. It is apparent that, for the time being, the community does not accept the concept of isolation. Residents are unwilling to report suspected cases and allow these people to be managed under conditions that reduce the risk of further transmission.

[djf]

If this thing even doubles in size from current conditions, it will totally exceed the space allotted in isolation wards.

Then, all bets are off. It almost makes no sense then to send in medical personel and supplies.

[Covenantor]

WHO update 12
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1383860/posts

It maybe that the new cases are advanced enough that transporting them causes more danger than leaving them in place, esp. in family situations.