The Oracle at Earth Institute

CFP ^ | April 11, 2005 | Paul Driessen

[MikeEdwards]

Climate change computer models aren't much better than ancient oracles.

In ancient times, priestesses at the Oracle at Delphi often answered important political questions with enigmatic predictions derived from dreams, signs, casting lots or reading animal entrails. Today, in the realm of climate change, that function is served by scientific priests and priestesses who offer forecasts of dubious value, derived from computer models.

Investing in the stock market, like planning next summer’s vacation, is a dicey proposition. But if someone offered to eliminate the uncertainty — by using computer models to pick surefire investments and perfect weather windows at idyllic resorts — few would jump at the chance.

Most people know complex markets and weather defy such predictions. Computers certainly help understand and analyze these systems; they can even forecast trends, if they’ve been tested against actual data. However, even predicting tomorrow’s IBM closing price or hurricane path is iffy, and attempts to do so months or years in advance are meaningless.

Thus the rapt attention that certain academics, journalists and policymakers give to climate models is truly astounding.

The latest example comes from Columbia University, where the Earth Institute asserts that its new "Climate Change Information Portal" will enable people to assess, avoid and adapt to "the problems that climate change and variability can cause" — and can even do so years into the future for regions as small as the tri-state New York metropolitan area. The Institute begins by assuming that human-induced global warming of alarming proportions is a fact. It then offers computer-driven guidance as to how we should respond. . . . .

[mmercier]

ogoodie, more mystics... at least these use gallium oxides or silicone based entrails for their prognostications.

"global warming" is a reality, happens every time the sun rises. "gun control" means using both hands.... and water causes cancer, because everyone who died from cancer was once exposed.

mystics make me want to puke. only wish i could puke on them in person.

[TheOracleAtLilac]

FWIW: I don't read animal entrails any longer (too messy)

[Duke Nukum]

It's science! I tells ya! Ya can'ts argue wid science! Just ask the sociology dept. of any major university.