[CitadelArmyJag]

Very interesting read...

[68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub]

Waterway Watch is the initial and primary Coast Guard Auxiliary program launched as a component of  Operation Patriot Readiness,
and is a major part of the Coast Guard's maritime security initiative.

Waterway Watch promotes public awareness and involvement in Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA)
and Maritime Homeland Security (MHLS) activities.

Waterway Watch involves all Auxiliarists, both those performing direct operational missions
and those involved in Recreational Safe Boating operational support activities.

CLICK ON THE GRAPHIC BELOW TO WATCH
A 15 MINUTE VIDEO ON Waterway Watch
Or copy and paste this url
http://www.cgauxed.org/waterway/waterwaywatch.asx
in your Windows Media Player
TIP : Check your settings and set it for Full Screen

[EagleUSA]

China's communistic aspirations extend far beyond just Taiwan when it comes to the waterways. I was in Singapore recently, talking with some of the locals and they are quite concened about China's efforts to gain access to waterways all around Southeast Asia...it has been going on for some time. It is hard evidence to China's expansionist efforts. And the last thing that China should get is trust.

[Waterleak]

Soldiers packed into containers will make great coffins for the attackers. As if our satellites can't see that. Stealth technology - we have it, they don't. It's like fighting a machine gun nest with rocks.

[Semper Paratus]

The main problem is how to keep such an invasion covert. If it is tipped off, those container amphib vessels would be gigantic coffins.

[Finalapproach29er]

Trojan ships!!

[the gillman@blacklagoon.com]

First Tawain, then Long Beach and the Port of New Jersey.

[Constantine XIII]

I dunno. We have to assume that the Taiwanese are at least as smart as us, and if a bunch of brand new shiny container ships, running low in the water and with doors in the wrong places, started making their way to Taiwan at the same time, they might get suspicous. It wouldn't take much firepower to send all of that defenseless equipment to the bottom of the ocean.

[Constantine XIII]

Taiwanese ground, navel and air forces.

I wonder if this includes the infamous Taiwanese LINT commandos.:P

[Eagles6]

Save.

[Rebelbase]

The container troop concept was used in recent fiction books.

Was that one of your, Jeff?

[DTogo]

Yes, an interesting read, but I'm sure the Pentagon and Taiwan's equivalent are thinking of similar scenarios and what to do about them.

[telebob]

Hmmm....I guess these container ships will be armored and travel in battle groups while they ply the mecantile waterways of the world?

Any chinese container ship that leaves a port without a load is probably up to no good.

And for all you ship designers out there, how do you design a ship that is both a competent commercial craft and a robust naval vessel?

Seems to me that the Anglosphere was the most competent at this sort of thing viz the massive convoy fleets of WWII. Unless the Chinese have made some sort of amazing maritime discovery, I don't think this scenario is realistic.

[telebob]

If the Chinese ships are anything like normal container ship, they will not be set up to offload themselves; no cranes. If they must rely on port facilities to unload their cargo, the defense is simple: sabotage the port cranes.

There should be plenty of warning of an impending 'container ship' attack to blow the footings or disable the cranes in some other way. Imagine all that Chinese armor with no way to get off the boat.

Bummer...

[reagan_fanatic]

China should understand that these container ships would make great coral reefs.

[Bald Eagle777]

Bulls-eye. Good post

[andyk]

A Type 072-II landing ship presenting its amphibious lift capability

[Daus]

Wouldn't a ship like this need to be unloaded with shore-side cranes? Put's a crimp in the whole invasion theory, no?

[Strategerist]

3M-80 Moskit Sunburn missiles, developed by the Chinese specifically to defeat the U.S. Aegis air-defense system

ROFLMAO; talk about your idiot authors.

The Sunburn is Russian, and the AEGIS was developed specifically to defeat missles like the Sunburn.

[Sandreckoner]

The US is not "now" considering using merchant vessels, it's done so for some time.

China is very far from approaching true "superpower" status. They are approaching the status of an economic superpower in the coming few decades, but they have few if any options for true global power projection on the horizon of any sort. Will a nation that can jostle with Japan and the US militarily in Asia fit the bill of "superpower" when even an EU with 10 times its GDP and vastly larger capability to project power globally (though still only a small fraction of the force the U.S. can project, and no similar system of global bases) does not? (EU = economic, not military superpower.)

3300 aircraft for an invasion of Taiwan, perhaps, yet only a handful of those planes are actually combat-capable airframes, and only a handful of those are actually modern.

And why on earth do people keep reading and posting these things as though we're the small fry in this equation? How can one mention the possibility of damaging US ships, yet time and again fail to mention the fact that the Chinese 'fleet' would be vastly more vulnerable to these attacks? Why do people seem to forget that Taiwan is not exactly undefended by its own ground, sea and air forces?

Apparently, before even having a merchant vessel that kinda sorta might be able to present a hypothetical invasion threat we've already been defeated. I can't wait to see what happens when China eventually develops a military capacity that manages to definitively eclipse that of tiny Taiwan, the doom-and-gloom and "Chinese juggernaut" articles are going to flow like a busted fire hydrant. It's mind-boggling.

I'm not saying all of this isn't interesting or isn't something to keep an eye on, but come on - even mentioning D-Day in the same breath as this? Focusing on what China might be able to do to deter us? Completely ignoring what we can do in return?

Or how about this: completely ignoring the economic ramifications for China in engaging in such an action? Wouldn't matter if they did win, they would still lose. Do the numbers. Hell, look at the Chinese trade deficit with the United States alone: what percent of a 1.6 trillion USD economy (China's) is 160 billion? (China's trade surplus with the U.S.) And what's China's annual growth rate? And what's China's bilateral trade balance with the rest of the globe minus America? (Tens of billions in deficit.) Even if they reverse the global deficit, it won't change the portion of their annual - annual - GDP directly attributable to the U.S. And it's far more than just what appears as a trade deficit.

China would only risk an invasion of Taiwan if it could be all but assured that it would not have to tangle with the U.S., meaning it would not have to engage American forces. It could not afford the fallout of a direct confrontation, nor could it afford the loss of face (or the expense) should it lose major military assets to the United States directly. (For example, the loss of transports, the loss of the handful of modern fighters it's purchased, and the loss of its more modern surface vessels and subs.)

I would simply like to see some articles on FP actually address both sides of the equation rather than this constant Cold War-style speculation whereby 'the enemy' is going to steamroll us with impugnity using forces we can only imagine.

[CGVet58]

bttt - the King of the East gathers his strength...