Then getting out the vote is what matters. In Canadian politics, the Liberlas and NDP split the left leaning vote. If you can get enough conservatives out, Conservative candidates will get elected.
That's correct. Playing the "moral values" card would probably at least guarantee a Conservative minority government (120 seats), but it would certainly not sell in Quebec, and it would be a tough sell in the big cities, so they would need to use it to get everything they can in rural and small-town English Canada, and the suburban areas as well.