Posted on 04/10/2005 3:36:29 PM PDT by Strategerist
BBC and the Discovery Channel produced a new docudrama and documentary about Yellowstone. The BBC version was shown in March and the Discovery Channel version will be shown on April 10th.
The docudrama Supervolcano dramatically explores the impact of a large caldera-forming eruption at Yellowstone. The scale of the portrayed eruption is similar to the eruption of the Huckleberry Ridge Tuff at Yellowstone 2.1 million years ago. The movie is realistic insofar as depicting what could happen if an eruption of this magnitude were to occur again. Although the drama is set in the future, it does an acceptable job of addressing some of the issues scientists would grapple with if Yellowstone showed signs of an impending eruption. The questions and answers below shed light on issues related to volcanism at Yellowstone. A much more detailed discussion, including full-color illustrations, can be found in U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2005-3024, available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2005/3024/.
QUESTION: What is the chance of another catastrophic volcanic eruption at Yellowstone?
ANSWER: Although it is possible, scientists are not convinced that there will ever be another catastrophic eruption at Yellowstone. Given Yellowstone's past history, the yearly probability of another caldera—forming eruption could be calculated as 1 in 730,000 or 0.00014%. However, this number is based simply on averaging the two intervals between the three major past eruptions at Yellowstone — this is hardly enough to make a critical judgement. This probability is roughly similar to that of a large (1 kilometer) asteroid hitting the Earth. Moreover, catastrophic geologic events are neither regular nor predictable.
QUESTION: What is a "supervolcano"?
ANSWER: The term "supervolcano" implies an eruption of magnitude 8 on the Volcano Explosivity Index, meaning that more than 1,000 cubic kilometers (250 cubic miles) of magma (partially molten rock) are erupted. The most recent such event on Earth occurred 74,000 years ago at the Toba Caldera in Sumatra, Indonesia.
QUESTION: What would happen if a "supervolcano" eruption occurred again at Yellowstone?
ANSWER: Such a giant eruption would have regional effects such as falling ash and short-term (years to decades) changes to global climate. The surrounding states of Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming would be affected, as well as other places in the United States and the world. Such eruptions usually form calderas, broad volcanic depressions created as the ground surface collapses as a result of withdrawal of partially molten rock (magma) below. Fortunately, the chances of this sort of eruption at Yellowstone are exceedingly small in the next few thousands of years.
QUESTION: Is Yellowstone monitored for volcanic activity?
ANSWER: Yes. The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO), a partnership between the United States Geological Survey (USGS), Yellowstone National Park, and the University of Utah, closely monitors volcanic activity at Yellowstone. The YVO website (http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo) features real-time data for earthquakes, ground deformation, streamflow, and selected stream temperatures. In addition, YVO scientists collaborate with scientists from around the world to study the Yellowstone volcano.
QUESTION: Do scientists know if a catastrophic eruption is currently imminent at Yellowstone?
ANSWER: There is no evidence that a catastrophic eruption at Yellowstone is imminent, and such events are unlikely to occur in the next few centuries. Scientists have also found no indication of an imminent smaller eruption of lava.
QUESTION: How far in advance could scientists predict an eruption of the Yellowstone volcano?
ANSWER: The science of forecasting a volcanic eruption has significantly advanced over the past 25 years. Most scientists think that the buildup preceding a catastrophic eruption would be detectable for weeks and perhaps months to years. Precursors to volcanic eruptions include strong earthquake swarms and rapid ground deformation and typically take place days to weeks before an actual eruption. Scientists at the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) closely monitor the Yellowstone region for such precursors. They expect that the buildup to larger eruptions would include intense precursory activity (far exceeding background levels) at multiple spots within the Yellowstone volcano. As at many caldera systems around the world, small earthquakes, ground uplift and subsidence, and gas releases at Yellowstone are commonplace events and do not reflect impending eruptions.
QUESTION: Can you release some of the pressure at Yellowstone by drilling into the volcano?
ANSWER: No. Scientists agree that drilling into a volcano would be of questionable usefulness. Notwithstanding the enormous expense and technological difficulties in drilling through hot, mushy rock, drilling is unlikely to have much effect. At near magmatic temperatures and pressures, any hole would rapidly become sealed by minerals crystallizing from the natural fluids that are present at those depths.
QUESTION: Could the Yellowstone volcano have an eruption that is not catastrophic?
ANSWER: Yes. Over the past 640,000 years since the last giant eruption at Yellowstone, approximately 80 relatively nonexplosive eruptions have occurred and produced primarily lava flows. This would be the most likely kind of future eruption. If such an event were to occur today, there would be much disruption of activities in Yellowstone National Park, but in all likelihood few lives would be threatened. The most recent volcanic eruption at Yellowstone, a lava flow on the Pitchstone Plateau, occurred 70,000 years ago.
QUESTION: Because Yellowstone is so geologically active, are there other potential geologic hazards in Yellowstone?
ANSWER: The heat and geologic forces fueling the massive Yellowstone volcano affect the park in many ways. Yellowstone's many geysers, hotsprings, steam vents, and mudpots are evidence of the heat and geologic forces. These hydrothermal (hot water) features are mostly benign, but can rarely be the sites of violent steam explosions and pose a hydrothermal hazard. Earthquakes, another example of active geologic forces, are quite common in Yellowstone, with 1,000 to 3,000 occurring annually. Most of these are quite small, although significant earthquakes have shaken Yellowstone, such as the 1959 magnitude 7.5 Hebgen Lake quake, the largest historical earthquake in the intermountain region, and the 1975 magnitude 6.1 quake near Norris Geyser Basin. The many earthquakes and steam explosions in the past 10,000 years at Yellowstone have not led to volcanic eruptions.
would it destroy rich environmentalists' houses in jackson hole?
with any luck, yes!
would it scare their horsies?
sure. they might even gallop off without their masters and mistresses.
I can't wait until the end of the movie and I will hear Tom Brokaw talk to the scientists (sarcasm).
Just incredibly cheesy :)
BTW, anyone catch the black-pantsuited female prez...?
That's the only list I found. I don't know about it's accuracy.
So I guess they're not worried about the whole global warming thing any more, are they?
The reality is that no geologist has actually sat down and made a list in a formal manner; there's a paper coming out from a couple of British guys in the Bulletin of Volcanology soon, though.
One problem is age cutoff; there are a ton of these that are essentially extinct; there are supervolcanic calderas all over Colorado, Nevada, Idaho that haven't erupted for 10 million years, have no seismic activity, and are essentially dead.
Regarding size people seem to have settled on VEI=8; Kikai, Mazama (Crater Lake) were VEI=7.
I actually look forward to that part; I think it's great you're going to see actual geologists commenting on the film.
LOL! Who needs automobiles?
With brown bags over their heads if they contributed to this...
This should be interesting.
Umm... Is there a reason there are no gas masks available in the military facility that the guys just left?
I'm watching it now, one thing that bugs me about all of this is they keep using the Metric system and I have to translate that into the English system for Mom. Kilometers, Centigrade, meters, dang. I really don't fall into my late maternal grandmother's camp of "The Metric system was a tool of Satan and if God wanted Metric, there would be 10 Apostles" but most people only know English units. Myself, I know some Metric but I still have to convert in my mind to English to get a rough idea. Maybe it ain't a major nitpick to some but I figure I wanted to pipe up about it.
A better analogy would be a part subjected to cyclical stress greater than its fatigue limit. Picking numbers of cycles at random, a part might be unlikely to fail in the first 10 million cycles, more likely to fail by 100 million cycles, and certain to fail before 500 million cycles. The probability of failure increases as the number of cycles increases.
Or, a boiler without a definite point of relief, subjected to a source of heat. Probability of failure is low while the boiler is cold, and increases as the temperature and pressure increase.
Probabalisitic design is a cool subject. Beats "safety factor" hands down.
I think the movie ended to optimistically.
j/k
For Example:
We're watching it right now. Was actually pretty good.
Nah. I'm a catastrophist, I've read extensively on these things.
Eighteen Hundred And Froze To Death (The 'Infamous Year Without Summer)
Yeah, probably.
On a page related to the people doing the upcoming paper there's a very rough Excel database of large volcanic eruptions.
Actually it looks like VEI=8 is a bit of a too high standard for a lot of people regarding the supervolcano standard.....that's 1,000 cubic kilometers. Even Long Valley Caldera didn't meet that.
I'll probably come up with a list of all the ones over 100 cubic km in the last 2 million years and post it on one of the inevitable later threads. A great many of them are places you've never heard of.
There are a crapload in Italy and New Zealand, for example. Veniaminoff in Alaska hit 400 cu km 3,700 years ago (that was the one that was erupting a few weeks ago to little interest or care by FR). Atila in Mexico and Los Choyos in Guatemala had really big eruptions.
I don't remember seeing the President but I did catch where they say the President is a woman. My first thought was that since this is a BBC production that they're implying it is Hillary.
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