Posted on 04/10/2005 9:42:43 AM PDT by quidnunc
Labour's poll lead is much narrower than Tony Blair would have hoped, almost a week after he launched the election campaign.
His party's four-point advantage in our exclusive ICM poll is a statistically insignificant one point higher than the ICM poll published on Tuesday.
And it is well down on the eight-point lead that Labour enjoyed in ICM's previous poll in March.
This election is evidently going to be a much tighter contest than most commentators had anticipated — and Mr Howard's opportunity is clear.
Doubts about Mr Blair's record extend well beyond divisive issues such as Iraq to one of Labour's core issues: health. Only 39 per cent think that Labour has kept its promises on this matter, while 55 per cent think it has not.
And despite a lot of extra money being spent on the NHS, most voters do not think that this has resulted in a better service. For every voter who thinks that the NHS has got better there is another who thinks it has got worse.
The most common view, accepted by 40 per cent, is that the extra cash has not made any difference.
Such figures confirm that there is widespread disillusion with Labour. Mr Howard's challenge is to persuade the public that he could do better.
Despite the doubts on Labour's record, the Conservative Party trails its main rival by 11 points when voters are asked who has the best policies on health. In six of eight issues covered by our poll, the Conservatives are further behind Labour than the four-point deficit on vote intentions.
The Conservatives may be ahead on immigration and law and order but they cannot expect to win unless they spread their net wider.
-snip-
At the request of the Rt. Hon. Anthony Blair, Her Majesty the Queen has dissolved Parliament. A General Election is upon us, to be held May 5th, and the stakes could not be higher. For the British, a crucial choice between ever-deeper European integration or a more Euro-skeptic stance is looming. For we Americans, and especially for American conservatives, the maddening choice is between our principles and ideals or the best ally we’ve had to date in the critical test of our times: the War on Terror.
First, the players and the latest polls:
SkyNews:
Labour 36
Conservative 36
Lib-Dems 21
The Times:
Labour 37
Conservative 35
Lib-Dems 19
The Independent:
Labour 36
Conservative 33
Lib-Dems 21
The Guardian:
Labour: 37
Conservative: 34
Lib-Dems: 21
Financial Times:
Labour: 34
Conservative: 39
Lib-Dems 21
Daily Telegraph:
Labour: 36
Conservative 33
Lib-Dems 22
And now, just a few hours ago, the latest YouGov figures in today’s Telegraph show that the Tories have closed the gap to an even 36-36 tie.
There are a couple of things one can say about this. First, the fact that the Tories are competitive is coming as a bit of a shock in Britain. The consensus view of the moment seems to hold that the Conservative rise is due more to Labour unattractiveness than Tory strategy. We see no reason to disagree.
From our standpoint as Americans in the Near Abroad it’s almost impossible to grasp the almost unanimous hatred of the Iraq War amongst the British people. Almost to a man, the British think that the War was based on a lie and is, at best, wrongheaded, at worst, criminal.
Thus, despite the ever-more government addicted British people’s natural attachment to Labour, the sheen has begun to come off Tony Blair. The time has long since passed that Labour and its supporters have thanked his electibility for their positions; the party has begun to think of itself as rightfully in power and set to shed its “New Labour” guise in favor of old-fashioned socialism. It has begun to think it can do without “Bush’s Poodle.”
The real astonishing news is the continued rise of the fanatically pro-European Union Liberal Democrats, a party which, in our estimation, is absolutely astonishing in its ability to be wrong on just about every important issue of the day, foreign or domestic. The depressing reality is that more than 1 in 5 Britons now fervently agree that they should be ruled by Belgians and Italians rather than Parliament and that somehow a vague concept of “human rights” which is nothing more than the established prejudices of a left-wing social order, has the force of “law.”
The good guys at Powerline call the British election a “win-win” situation in that, whatever may pass, the British will either elect a known friend of the United States or the Conservative Party, long a stalwart of the old Atlantic alliance.
We wish we could agree.
The fact is that the Tories have always had more than a strong element of anti-Americanism in its ranks. This fact, along with the natural opportunism of an opposition poised to take advantage of the governing party’s support for a deeply unpopular war, has bred a new sort of Conservatism. The kind that can rise in Parliament and ask the Prime Minister “how many Iraqi women and children must die before the Americans have their vengeance in Falluja.”
There is a reason Michael Howard, the Conservative leader, has not been invited to the White House, as have virtually all of his predecessors. Nor was the Conservative Party delegation given a very warm welcome back at the RNC in 2004. Riven by incompatible positions on the only question that matters — that of Europe — the Conservatives have become a party of mush that offers nothing except platitudes and snarky comments.
We never thought we would say this, but … .
British friends: please vote for the socialist.
(NewSisyphus, April 8, 2005)
To Read This Article Click Here
I think a lot of Tony Blair. But conservatism is on the rise becuase other nations are getting more and more information. The Information Age is crushing the left.
Looks like the liberal democrats are taking a beating.
The problem is, the British Conservative Party isn't conservative by American standards.
They give Blair too much credit. I guess they think if he loses, America crumbles.
If the Tories win, or if Labour wins and kicks Blair out as PM, there will be significant raqmifications for America, chiefly in Iraq.
The Brits will probably pull out and leave a void that we'll have to fill with more troops.
I think you have to remember that, because of dissention among Labour, without the votes of the Conservative Party, the British Parliament would not have voted to go into Iraq.
We must come to see the the Europeans are no longer our allies. It goes beyond some sort of consideration whether the governments in the EU are only slightly left of center or all the way to the extremes of the far left. Europe has quite lost its mind and in its current state of senile dementia it is quite dangerous to us. Just look at the farce of the "negotiations" with Iran. Both the EU "nomenklatur" and the general public in the EU actually think that this is some how meaningful when in fact it is not only demeaning to the "statesmen" and peoples of the EU, it is down right suicidal to western civilization. One has to spend dome time over there to get a notion of what a strange topsy-turvy mental world the Europeans live in.
We need to buttress our relationships with Australian, Japan and India, see what we can get out of E. Europe and prepare for the worst. Someone on this thread has said that the left is crumbling in the EU. Boy, are they wrong. The left is in it greatest ascendancy in two generations. The British "Conservatives" are really more like our democrats of the 70's or 80's. The same could be said for the German "Conservatives." There is nothing like American conservatism anywhere in the world. The Anti-Americanism in the EU is chilling. I do not think it will end until they see that they have lost their best friend, and by then it will be too late.
Europe is fading anyway. The future is in Asia and not just the Far East.
People turn more conservative at different rates and in different ways.
" The British "Conservatives" are really more like our democrats of the 70's or 80's"
Err, how so?
"Looks like the liberal democrats are taking a beating."
Depends what you are relating it to. 21% represents their best position at this point of an election campaign ever, they usually go up a few points during the increased exposure that the campaign gives them. If they hit 23 or 24% on election day, they'll be creaming themselves...
Blair helped us out at our most critical time. It was on borrowed time. And I think our military can handle it. We ought to get a pay raise for our soldiers and marines, however. FReegards....
" The British "Conservatives" are really more like our democrats of the 70's or 80's"
I didn't say that. I do know that there's a major gun control problem there, socialist medicine, etc. Crime up, health care patients exported to other countries, etc. But I'm not expert enough to compare decade-with-decade.
Thought you'd be interested. I know I'm curious about what you have to say. FReegards....
They are pulling 5600 out and sending them to Afghanistan. Iraq is settling down. I suspect we will start bringing some of our men and women home in the not too distant future.
America will not crumble because Blair lost an election. We have always carried the lions share of fighting and dying and spent treasure around the world. I do not put Blair's winning an election as a pivotal point in whether the war in Iraq is won or lost. I may be wrong but, that's what I believe.
I agree wholeheartedly. Blair was by our side from day one in the WOT, at a great political expense to himself back home. He reminds me of the way the Democratic Party over here used to be years ago. Sure, they were liberal big government types, but for the most part, they were "America First" patriotic types, something sorely lacking in today's modern Dem Party, which is why they keep losing elections.
No, you're right, you didn't say that, it was the guy who posted previously, apologies!
Michael Howard is an Atlanticist. He is better than Blair on every issue.
As the New sisyphun article explains, relations between the Tories the GOP in general and the White House in partricular= are not good.
And Gordon Brown reportedly is an enthusiastic Europhile who is not particulartly fond of America and Americans.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.