Posted on 04/09/2005 3:31:45 PM PDT by wagglebee
While most national polls seem to suggest Labour Party candidate Tony Blair will be re-elected to a third term as Britain's prime minister in the upcoming May 5 elections, there are reasons to believe an upset may be afoot and that the rival conservative Tories have a decent chance to recapture 10 Downing Street.
The Economist reports that most polls currently have Blair still "comfortably" ahead, with the most reliable pollster, ICM, giving Blair an 8-point lead. But, the magazine says, Labour "lost ground heavily during both the 1997 and 2001 elections," with its average poll rating falling off by 5 points (most of the gains went to the Liberal Democrats, but the Tories gained in 1997 too).
And, the Economist reports, even polling figures aren't necessarily reliable measures, since they have been "seriously astray" as recently as 1992. "On average," the magazine reported, "the final polls put Labour narrowly ahead." Polling errors in subsequent elections were similar.
Still, none of these factors "mattered in the last two elections because Labour entered the campaign with such overwhelming odds," said the magazine, noting that in 1997, Labour led in the polls by 24 points, and again by 20 points in 2001. Now, as Blair is expected to announce his re-election bid, however, his party is up only 5 points, according to polls surveyed by the Economist.
"So, if history were to repeat itself ... Labour's poll lead would disappear by May 5," the magazine concluded, leaving Blair trailing the Tory candidate, Michael Howard.
Who cares. Blair needs to go dispite his help on the WoT. He's too much of a new world orderer(of course so is Bush). IIRC, the tories initially supported the war until there were no WMDs found. They wouldn't be pulling out immediately.
the torries and labor tend to switch sides on issues. I have no idea what the torries would do. One thing is certain they have to befriend the US government..
""So, if history were to repeat itself ... Labour's poll lead would disappear by May 5," the magazine concluded, leaving Blair trailing the Tory candidate, Michael Howard."
Conventional polling wisdom is that, even if the Tories equal Labour's vote share, the result would still be a reasonably large Labour majority.
For too many years now the Tories have been the anti party. Whatever Blair supports, the Tories oppose, no matter. Thus the Tory stance against the Iraq war.
The Tories, like our own Democrats, will eventually figure out that you don't win elections by being known as the party against things.
I will not deny that I am not nearly as familiar with British politics as I should be, and I said that I would be happy to be proven wrong about my observations. That being said, I am very interested in hearing from those such as yourself about Michael Howard's viewpoints.
"For too many years now the Tories have been the anti party. Whatever Blair supports, the Tories oppose, no matter. Thus the Tory stance against the Iraq war."
Nice theory, except the Tories were not against the Iraq war, though they should have been.
An old adage of electoral dynamics is that you 'can't beat something with nothing',and the 'Conservatives'and most especially their leader Michael Howard,are as close to nothing as it is possible to get.
Opportunistic,bland,indecisive,BORING.As was mentioned earlier by Canard,the Tories would have to get about 39% of the vote in order to match Labour's likely minimum returns in terms of seats won.
Not going to happen.
Blair is not perfect but Howard is terrible.
He's Bill Clinton with higher character.
Take a leaf from America and have a positive pro-freedom agenda and pro-Sovereignty agenda and RUN ON TAX CUTS.
Does wonders for the poll numbers as well as for the country's prosperity.
Did anyone suggest it was? There's no harm in discussing what would be best for the US in any foreign election.
PS--A certain Brit newspaper found out the hard way that their needs are the last thing on the minds of US voters. ;)
If things continue the way they are going, in ten or twenty years when the majority population of Great Britain and other European nations are Islamofascists (with another large contingent of leftist Islamofascist apologists), I have a feeling that many Britons and Europeans will suddenly be very interested in how the Americans feel.
If things continue the way they are going, in ten or twenty years when the majority population of America are Mexicans (with another large contingent of leftist Mexican apologists), I have a feeling that many Americans will suddenly be very interested in how the British feel. [tongue firmly in cheek]
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