Posted on 04/08/2005 7:52:35 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
[Analysis by Kim Young-hwan, (the author of) 'On N. Korean Democratization']
Ideology and organization greatly weakened, 80% chance of collapse in 10 years
[04/08/05 19:42]
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The prediction of N. Korean collapse was made twice already. The first was in 1989, when communist regimes in Eastern Europe went down in a series, and the second, in 1994, when (N. Korean) president Kim Il-sung died. However, these two predictions had a serious flaw.
At the time, N. Korea had few internal factors to cause a collapse. Eastern European countries were so far way (from N. Korea) both psychologically and geographically. N. Korea had little interest in international communist movement., and was an extremely closed country. As a result, the odds were pretty low that the demise of communist regimes so far away could lead to the collapse of N. Korean regime.
In 1994, when Kim Il-sung died, there was little possibility that his death would result in the destabilization of N. Korea because Kim Jong-il had been running the country for a long time. The two predictions of the collapse did not consider these basic facts, and naturally, the predictions were well off the mark.
Nevertheless, the third prediction of the collapse is being advanced now, which is based on the changes in N. Korea for the last 10 years.
Starting from the time of Kim Il-sung's death through the massive famine, there occurred a momentous change in N. Korea.
First, Juche ideology and N. Korean Worker's Party had both weakened, and N. Korea turned into a military dictatorship guided by Military First Policy. Second, people's loyalty to their leaders went down, and the state control over people's life weakened. Third, corruption became rampant and state organizations were abysmally managed, which angered ordinary people.
Juche ideology and the loyalty to leaders are the software of N. Korean system. The party and the military are the hardware. The direction and the content of what went on for last 10 years in N. Korea are, in short, the breakdown of both software and hardware in N. Korean system.
It is a fundamental change which would determine the future of N. Korea. On top of this development, the influx and spread of outside information are gaining momentum.
Furthermore, another important factor for deciding N. Korea's future, the N. Korean nuke issue, is in a 'dangerous stalemate.' Unless N. Korea comes up with a solution beyond our imagination, the pressure and sanction against Kim Jong-il regime by U.S. and the international community would intensify. This is an external factor which makes it impossible to prolong N. Korean regime.
Since we cannot observe any movements which can directly threaten the regime for now, it may not be sensible to say that N. Korean regime would collapse tomorrow. Still, ideology and organization, which are essential for N. Korean regime's survival, have markedly deteriorated. In such a situation, with continuing external pressure or isolation, there would be 50-60% chance of the collapse in 5 years, and 80-90% chance in 10 years.
Even if N. Korean regime lasts longer than 5 years, in political terms, it is my prediction that it would barely survive in a state of life support.
The collapse of N. Korean regime is not likely to follow the scenario where the gradual spread of dissident movements would lead to the overthrow of the regime. It would much more likely that the collapse would come abruptly across the board, when the loss of Kim Jong-il regime's control is coupled with external pressure and sanction.
The important insight which the last 10 year's change in N. Korea showed us is not when or how N. Korean regime would collapse, but that it became crystal-clear that the presence N. Korea's Kim Jong-il regime cannot co-exist with the well-being of N. Korean people or the future of Koreans.
That is why arguing over the possibility of its collapse is a waste of time. Instead we should take real actions now for the collapse of N. Korean regime, and democratization of N. Korea, and speeding up the unification of two Koreas.
Columnist Kim Young-hwan
I quite agree. It is almost as problematic as getting the terrible, current regime out of power. By the way, you've seen their memo worried about overthrow by political pyswar by the US? The Army put that out in January I believe. Looks legit. Internally I think they are getting scared. They are indeed a stack of cards, a house of cards.
Yeah, I saw it. I tried to translate the news article on them first. I might try again. Yes, they are indeed scared of decapitation attack. I have to agree with them. They should be scared.
I am so thinking right now about flooding the market with bootleg copy of Team America come out in mid May what I understand LOL!
I wonder if that movie can be translated in Korean LOL!
a kind of porn, adventure, and satire all rolled up together. Of course, it is possible that there would be some clueless N. Korean dorks who are enthralled to find that "Dear Leader" has such a nice singing voice.:-)
Another much-appreciated translation, thanks.
See LOLOLOL!
OH MAN that be greatest intellgence that if North Korea black market start selling Team America LOL!!
YEAH be proud Little Kim we didn't you had good singing voice LOL!
I am so thinking right now about flooding the market with bootleg copy of Team America come out in mid May what I understand LOL!The bootlegs were out in Iraq (at least) not long after the movie came out in the theaters.....LOL.
-Eric
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