Posted on 04/07/2005 11:43:22 PM PDT by neverdem
Nelson Ching for The New York Times
Chinese Navy sailors took part in a welcoming ceremony for the flagship of the American Seventh Fleet at a port call last month in Zhanjiang, China. A buildup by China's navy presents new concerns at the Pentagon.
ZHANJIANG, China - At a time when the American military is consumed with operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, global terrorism and the threat of nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran, China is presenting a new and strategically different security concern to America, as well as to Japan and Taiwan, in the western Pacific, Pentagon and military officials say.
China, these officials say, has smartly analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of the American military and has focused its growing defense spending on weapons systems that could exploit the perceived American weaknesses in case the United States ever needs to respond to fighting in Taiwan.
A decade ago, American military planners dismissed the threat of a Chinese attack against Taiwan as a 100-mile infantry swim. The Pentagon now believes that China has purchased or built enough amphibious assault ships, submarines, fighter jets and short-range missiles to pose an immediate threat to Taiwan and to any American force that might come to Taiwan's aid.
In the worst case in a Taiwan crisis, Pentagon officials say that any delay in American aircraft carriers reaching the island would mean that the United States would initially depend on fighter jets and bombers based on Guam and Okinawa, while Chinese forces could use their amphibious ships to go back and forth across the narrow Taiwan Strait.
Some American military analysts believe China could now defeat Taiwan before American forces could arrive at the scene, leaving a political decision about whether to attack, even though Taiwan would already be lost.
Even the most hawkish officials at the Pentagon do not believe China is preparing for an imminent invasion of Taiwan. Nor do analysts believe China is any match for the United States military. But as neighboring North Korea is erratically trying to play the nuclear card, China is quietly challenging America's reach in the western Pacific by concentrating strategically on conventional forces.
"They are building their force to deter and delay our ability to intervene in a Taiwan crisis," said Eric McVadon, a former military attaché at the United States Embassy in Beijing. "What they have done is cleverly develop some capabilities that have the prospect of attacking our niche vulnerabilities."
China's rapid military modernization is the major reason President Bush has warned the European Union not to lift its arms embargo against Beijing. At the same time, some officials in Washington, particularly on Capitol Hill, would like Taiwan to buy more American arms to beef up its own defenses.
Japan, America's closest ally in East Asia and China's rival for regional dominance, is also watching China's buildup and reorganizing its own military. The Japanese prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi, has echoed President Bush by calling on Europe to leave the arms embargo against China in place. A research center affiliated with Japan's Defense Ministry has also criticized China's increased military spending and cautioned that Beijing was rushing to prepare for possible conflict with Taiwan, an assertion China sharply denied.
The growing friction between Japan and China, fueled by rising nationalism in both countries, is just one of the political developments adding to tensions in East Asia. In March, China passed a controversial new "antisecession" law authorizing a military attack if top leaders in Beijing believe Taiwan moves too far toward independence - a move that brought hundreds of thousands of people in Taiwan out to protest China's most recent military white paper also alarmed American policy makers because it mentioned the United States by name for the first time since 1998. It stated that the American presence in the region "complicated security factors." China, meanwhile, accused the United States and Japan of meddling in a domestic Chinese matter when Washington and Tokyo recently issued a joint security statement that listed peace in Taiwan as a "common strategic objective."
"The potential for a miscalculation or an incident here has actually increased, just based on the rhetoric over the past six months to a year," one American intelligence analyst in Washington said.
At a welcoming ceremony on March 28 for the command ship Blue Ridge, of the American Seventh Fleet, here at the home base of China's South Sea Fleet, the American commanding officer, Capt. J. Stephen Maynard, and his Chinese counterpart, Senior Capt. Wen Rulang, sidestepped questions about the antisecession law and military tensions. Asked about China's military buildup and how America should view it, Captain Wen praised the United States Navy as the most modern in the world.
"As for China," Captain Wen said, "our desire is to upgrade China's self-defense capabilities."
In China's view, however, self-defense involves Taiwan, which it regards as a breakaway province and which the United States, by treaty, has suggested it would help defend. In 1996, when China fired warning-shot missiles across the Taiwan Strait before the Taiwanese elections, President Clinton responded by sending a carrier battle group to a position near Taiwan. Then, China could do nothing about it, Now, analysts say, it can.
In fact, American carriers responding to a crisis would now initially have to operate at least 500 miles from Taiwan, which would reduce the number of fighter sorties they could launch. This is because China now has a modern fleet of submarines, including new Russian-made nuclear subs that can fire missiles from a submerged position. America would first need to subdue these submarines.
China launched 13 attack submarines between 2002 and 2004, a period when it also built 23 ships that can ferry tanks, armored vehicles and troops across the 100-mile strait. Tomohide Murai, an expert on the Chinese military at the National Defense Academy in Tokyo, said that China's buildup is intended to focus on an American response, but he is skeptical that China already has the naval and air superiority over Taiwan to dominate the strait.
But Mr. Murai said China's military would continue to expand and modernize for years to come because of the country's booming economy, while Japan is restricted by budget constraints and its World War II era Constitution. Chinese subs and Japanese vessels already have played politically explosive cat-and-mouse games around a string of islands claimed by both countries.
"The speed of our modernization is not so rapid as in China," Mr. Murai said. "Many people in Japan worry that the balance eventually will be less favorable."
China, meanwhile, often expresses concern about rising militarism in Japan and notes that Japan spends more on its military budget - a debatable point since Western experts say China vastly understates its own military spending. China also worries that the United States Navy could be used to try to cut off oil supplies if a conflict ever arises over Taiwan.
Asked about growing concerns in Washington over China's military buildup, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Liu Jianchao, said: "American worries are unnecessary. We stick to the path of peaceful development, and we do not pose threats to American influence."
Robert Karniol, an Asia specialist at Jane's Defense Weekly, noted that Japan is also modernizing its military in a significant way, largely as its competes with China for regional dominance in Asia. He said Japan is restructuring the independent branches of its military under a unified command modeled after the American Joint Chiefs of Staff.
And just as Japan is looking at China, he said, so is China looking past Taiwan at Japan. China's naval upgrades will not only strengthen its hand against Taiwan but also expand its influence around Asia.
"If the Taiwan issue was resolved next month, China's military modernization would not end," Mr. Karniol said. "The Chinese understand that if their ambition is to become the dominant power in Asia - well, who can disrupt that? The United States and Japan."
Jim Yardley reported from Zhanjiang for this article, and ThomShankerfrom Washington.
bttt
 |
||||
|
||||
Nor do analysts believe China is any match for the United States military.
In other words, the stereotype is negative since it implies a miserliness on par with Scrooge.
I've always seen that referring to entrepreneurship combined with something of a diaspora.
My buddy tells me there are a bunch of bubbleheads on this forum (those of you who are know what this means - I think I sort of do, and it's not an insult). You guys know that these new ships are just shinier targets. The only worry the Pentagon has is how many torpedoes will our subs need to carry.
Thanks biglook
Careful! The PLAN is focusing their construction efforts on Tank Landing Ships & Subs. While the LST's would have some utility in 'relief work' they really aren't off the ways yet. Subs are great for 'sea denial' work but are lousy for assisting flood victims.
Carriers (CV's) and Helicopter Carriers (LHD's & LHA's) were in demand during the Tsunami relief effort. It sounds like the PLAN has shelved its plans to construct a carrier. They realize that their navy has to walk (coastal defense) before it can run (blue water).
The point? The Chinese are sneaky bastards. They aren't just going to make a grab at Taiwan with nothing to back up their military force. Yes, they are currently behind the US in military power, but they are catching up quickly (thanks to thefts of nuclear secrets during the Clinton administration and a fortuitous collision with an American spy plane, which landed on Chinese soil and ended up in Chinese hands). They are not going to fight 'fair'. They are developing excellent asymmetrical warfare tactics and anti-carrier tactics, and are likely moving forces around to take advantages of these new capabilities.
My first guess would be that Yokosuka-area sailors who are otherwise huge dorks suddenly have hot new Chinese girlfriends who are 'just dying to see the Navy base'. Bombs planted. Now, just prior to an attack, we'll start seeing hacking attacks on major US military and civilian targets, such as military infrastructure, banking facilities, electrical power grids, etc. And of course, the Chinese will overrun Taiwan quickly, to 'gain ground' against any US countermeasure as well as to entrench themselves on 'their' Taiwanese soil. And finally, they will launch the media campaign that will state that they were just taking back what was theirs all along (see WWII Germany for details) and decrying any criticism or attempt to counter their offensive as "American imperialism." The liberals and eurinals will instinctively nod their heads at any smearing of the American name, and by then the takeover will be complete.
But all of this begs the question, "Who the hell are the Taiwanese to me, and why should I fight (and possibly die) on their behalf?" As far as I'm concerned, the Chinese can have them. They want them back more than I want to defend them.
Simply put, in order for the PRC to mobilize enough forces to make a concerted amphibious invasion, they'll need to pull off a masterpiece of strategic deception. Even using the cover of a 'major training exercise' would only free up so much combat power, and China's opponents pay more attention at those times, not less.
If we detect major mobilization efforts, which are observable through numerous sources, then the jig is up. An invasion several times larger and more complex than Normandy doesn't just happen. Lots of moving parts will start spinning, and probably in ways that the PRC hasn't even thought of.
The best sucker punch China could pull off would not come close to winning them the island.
I think you have the Chinese OpPlan just about right.
That said, could you comment on the training level of the Chinese naval forces and exactly what threat they would pose to a US carrier force sent to defend Taiwan. Thanks in advance.
The greatest threat to US Naval forces in the near future will be them holding our carriers futher away from Taiwan than we would like thus restricting our carrier air operations in a conflict over Taiwan.
With all of their new diesel/electric subs, with all of their new surface combatants, and with the dramatic increase in the modern aircraft that they have either acquired or are building, it would be very dangerous for our carrier groups to approach too closely until that is weeded out. Particularly in terms of their surface combatants with a combination of the new Hangzhou Class (Type 951/EM) guided missile destroyers that they have and are acquiring from Russia that carry the Sunburn or Moskit cruise missiles, designed to attack US Aircraft Carriers, coupled with their new AEGIS like area air defense destroyers.
Best guess is we would send in several (six or eight) Advanced LA Class subs, at least one of the Sea Wolf's and a couple of the Virginia Class subs to clear a lot of that out before we brought the carriers in close, all the while pounding whatever the ChiComms are trying to do with their own air attacks and cross strait operations from those carriers and from Guam. (Which, BTW, means we cannot rule out a ChiComm preemptive attack on Guam and had best be prepared for it). Then we would send the carriers closer and finish things off, totally destroying their new surface and sub fleets.
The question will be whether we can do that fast enough to save Taiwan. I believe in the current sitatuion that we can. The longer time goes on with their training and rapid buildup, the harder it will be, particularly if they get massive numbers of subs in the area.
Also, IMHO, the one gotcha is whether the ChiComms have some real balance shifter up their sleeve that tips the scales. A deployed and very effective supercavitating weapon for example, which we were not aware of and not prepared for could do that.
In addition, I would not excpect the Chinese to do this until we are more heavily engaged in the Mid East (ie Iran or Syrioa) AND after the N. Korea thing heats up to the point of our own heavy involvement...but that's just my opinion. IN that case, we would be even more constrained as to which assetts we could deploy there.
Thanks again. Reading your analysis reminded me of the Falklands war during which a single RN nuclear attack sub sank the Belgrano. Subsequently the entire Argentine navy wisely retired to their home ports for the duration of the conflict. Would USN sub operations have a similar effect on the Chinese?
Not until quite a few are sunk I am afraid, particularly their subs. The Argentines had not credible sub counter force, the ChiComms will act when they feel they do.
"Subs are great for 'sea denial' work but are lousy for assisting flood victims."
And that gig really worked out for the Nazis didn't it, NOT.
"The internal social strife of China could cause them to direct their nationalism towards Taiwan. We'll see. They haven't been too helpful with North Korea"
It is just now starting to warm up, not perculate.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.