I have it one excellent authority that the Conservative Party is mobilizing and on "Red Alert." Campaign HQ's are being rented as we speak and lawn signs are being dusted off.
Cynically I think the impact of AdScam is overblown. You must remember that even if the Prime Minister was caught molesting a young boy the Liberals would get at a minimum 30% of the vote. I kid you not. That is how entranched the Liberals are. It really is as the underlying factor very deep the base of the Liberal Party. The Liberal base is very staunch in its support. We are talking about the usual suspects.
About 25% of Canadians are Marxists, just look up "Canadian Healthcare" on Wikimedia. 30% are Liberal Party "centrists" and about 10% are NDP hard socialists. About 20% of Canadians are Conservative (my the Canadian definition, more Libertarian than US conservatives) and about only 10% of Canada are American style conservatives.
Your estimate of conservatives is way too high.
Only 15% of Canadians (if that) are conservative by any definition.
Most Canadians who ever vote conservative just want the liberals without the name.