[conservative in nyc]

After the last election, I'm as pessimistic as you about the CPC winning an outright majority of seats in Parliament. The numbers just aren't there. It will be virtually impossible for the Conservative Party to win an outright majority without picking up some ridings in Quebec, which isn't going to happen. They'd need to pick up a bunch of Toronto-are 905 ridings and do a little better in Atlantic Canada (which also isn't very likely).

But the Liberals CAN lose some of the 21 seats they have in Quebec to the Bloc. Add that to changes in a few Ontario ridings to the CPC or NDP, and you're looking at the CPC having the most seats and the Bloc as king makers.

[Heartofsong83]

Correct. I have identified about 60-65 seats that are 'safe' for the Liberals. There are about 10-13 in Atlantic Canada, 13-16 in Quebec, 27-32 in Ontario, 2 in Manitoba and 4-5 in British Columbia, plus 1 of the 3 Arctic seats.

Their strongest regions are the West Island of Montreal and the City of Toronto except near downtown (LIB-NDP).

Realistically, barring the annhialation of the Fiberals, I can see the Conservatives getting 12-14 seats in Atlantic Canada, 55-63 in Ontario, 10-11 in Manitoba, sweeps of Saskatchewan and Alberta (42 total) and 24-27 in British Columbia, plus 1 in the Arctic (Yukon). That leaves them with about 145-158 seats, just on the majority line, with NO seats in Quebec.

That assumes about 20-24 seats land with the NDP and about 58-62 seats land with the Bloc Quebecois.

The best coalition in that case: maverick Liberals-in-name-only.