Posted on 04/01/2005 12:13:30 PM PST by Strategerist
We foresee an above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin in 2005. Also, an above-average probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is anticipated. We have adjusted our forecast upward from our early December forecast and may further raise our prediction in our later updates if we can be sure El Niño conditions will not develop.
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 73% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including the Florida Peninsula - 53% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 41% (average for last century is 30%)
4) Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean
ABSTRACT Information obtained through March 2005 indicates that the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season will be an active one. We estimate that 2005 will have about 7 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 13 named storms (average is 9.6), 65 named storm days (average is 49), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 3 intense (category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 7 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2005 to be about 135 percent of the long-term average. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be 140 percent of the long-period average. We expect this year to continue the past-decade trend of above-average hurricane seasons.
(Excerpt) Read more at hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu ...
Well, this Floridian is excited...
My prediction is ther will be a hurricane landfall in the Florida Panhandle this season. '75,85,95,'04...........
We finally got smart enough to have plywood fitted to the windows that we can take up and down as the blasted things meander.
Of course, all bets are off if a tree or a few trees land on the roof.
Why do people in Colorado predict hurricanes? I don't predict snowstorms........
Have you tried those hurricane clips at Home DePot?........
ping
You owe me a new keyboard.
Well, there are experts in Greek archaelogy at Universities in New York.
The National Center for Climate Prediction is in Colorado.
You don't need to actually be near hurricanes to forecast a hurricane season. Colorado State has a strong met program, and it probably happened to be the place that gave Bill Gray tenure.
His four analog seasons (1995, 2003, 1952, 1959) weren't really big FL landfall seasons of strong storms, with the exception of Opal.
I am so glad we got hurricane shutters after the last two!
susie
OR they had a good Congressman or Senator that could pork-barrel the funding for their alma-mater........
Curse you!!!!
This is an outrage! The only reason for all this destruction is Bush's refusal to sign the Kyoto treaty. President Kerry would never let these hurricanes happen.
Start impeachment now!
Bush is making sure that Florida gets hit by a hurricane so all the old people will be blown away, then him and his oil buddies can steal all their social security money. /DUmmie
Dr. Bill Gray is probably the most prominent, rabid opponent of Global Warming Theory in the entire meteorological community, incidentally.
I realize that - maybe you didn't catch the /DUmmie tag at the end of my post ... :o)
Actually he doesn't, but every single year from 1995 to 2004 with the lone exception of 1997 HAS ended up having hurricane activity above the long-term 100 year average, and he's correctly forecast that every year except 1997 (he missed the strong El Nino forming that year that killed the Atlantic season.)
Sooner or later someone will pop in and give another, equally goofy, reason but they won't be kidding.
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