Posted on 03/31/2005 8:28:31 PM PST by RedOhio
Press Release: uscountvotes.org Scientific Analysis Suggests Presidential Vote Counts May Have Been Altered Group of University Professors Urges Investigation of 2004 Election
http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdf US Count Votes March 31st , 2005
Officially, President Bush won November's election by 2.5%, yet exit polls showed Kerry winning by 3% [1] . According to a report to be released today by a group of university statisticians, the odds of a discrepancy this large between the national exit poll and election results happening by accident are close to 1 in a million.
In other words, by random chance alone, it could not have happened. But it did.
Two alternatives remain. Either something was wrong with the exit polling, or something was wrong with the vote count.
Exit polls have been used to verify the integrity of elections in the Ukraine, in Latin America, in Germany, and elsewhere. Yet in November 2004, the U.S. exit poll discrepancy was much more than normal exit poll error (and similar to that of the invalid Ukraine election.[2] )
In a recent survey of US members of the world's oldest and largest computer society, The Association for Computing Machinery, 95% opposed software driven un-auditable voting machines [3] , of the type that now count at least 30% of U.S. votes. Today's electronic vote-counting machines are not required to include basic safeguards that would prevent and detect machine or human caused errors, be they innocent or deliberate. [4]
The consortium that conducted the presidential exit polls, Edison/Mitofsky, issued a report in January suggesting that the discrepancy between election results and exit polls occurred because Bush voters were more reticent than Kerry voters in response to pollsters.
The authors of this newly released scientific study "Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Poll Discrepancies" consider this "reluctant Bush responder" hypothesis to be highly implausible, based on extensive analysis of Edison/Mitofsky's exit poll data. They conclude, /“The required pattern of exit poll participation by Kerry and Bush voters to satisfy the exit poll data defies empirical experience and common sense under any assumed scenario.”/
A state-by-state analysis of the discrepancy between exit polls and official election results shows highly improbable skewing of the election results, overwhelmingly biased towards the President.
The report concludes, “ We believe that the absence of any statistically-plausible explanation for the discrepancy between Edison/Mitofsky’s exit poll data and the official presidential vote tally is an unanswered question of vital national importance that needs thorough investigation.”
Ph.D. statisticians in America who have seen this group's preliminary exit poll study have not refuted it. This new study is a much more comprehensive an analysis of the exit poll discrepancies.
The report is available on-line:
http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdf
An executive summary of the report by is available at:
http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit_Polls_summary.pdf
This must be an April fools joke.
Thats what you use to pick up dog droppings.
I agree. I think a recount is necessary. That is, a recount of the exit polls!
Could it be that the exit polls did not take into account all the early voting by Bush supporters?
can someone stop the madness?
Pinging TruthIsAll!
dare I say it's time to moveon.org?
So exit polls decide a President or the actual vote?
To suggest that the treasonous John Kerry actually won is ludicrous.
More of a wonder is why he didn't lose by 15%. That has me scared for our republic.
In other words, by random chance alone, it could not have happened.
"1 in a million" equals "could not have happened." This writer is NOT a math professor... No one could ever win a lottery, BUT THEY DO!
Bingo. Exit polling from a press with a history of tampering with exit polls
Well, I'm no "university statistician" but -- um, DUH!!!
The election is over. Bush won. Let's move on.
Well, at least they quit reliving 2000.
For the moment.
Considering that Mitofsky has already admit the polling data was wrong and weighted. this study sorta sucks.
http://slate.msn.com/id/2111460/
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