Your political analysis is spot on.
Your poker analogy shows why you only break even.
The first rule of poker is to learn to compute pot odds. Going for an inside straight can be a good move if the pot odds warrant it.
Second, you have to calculate the odds of your opponent beating your hand even if you fill the straight. Third you have to figure out how to make your opponent believe you have already filled the straight. Finally, you must have the courage to call what you think is a bluff.
I think number 5 is what separates the good poker player from the average player.
In fact, I think having the courage to make the call is the characteristic which separates many successful people from the rest of the pack.