Mostly no, they are, essentially, not fantasy.
They are probably conservative.
The folks doing the estimating are close to the ground and know what they are talking about.
I ran into similar estimating discourses about China. Any serious efforts at any kind of estimating accuracy has proven most early estimates to be conservative.
But, hey, if you have a habit of being dismissive, who am I to try and change you.
If it is not fantasy, Paul is turning green with envy. Your mentioning similar estimations in China being conservative makes me wonder if your numbers aren't subject to the same kind of wishful thinking as this article's.
And the accusation of being dismissive is ad hominem. Whatever my personality, the argument stands. Those numbers aren't close to being substantiated.
I dunno -- I'd like to believe it was true, but I don't see how it is possible. I hope I'm wrong. however, the FACTS that I do know is that Christians in Irq are being chased out of places they have lived in for millenia (Assyrian and Chaldean Christians)