I agree with everything in your last paragraph, which is what ultimately animates my concern- Subject to the stipulation that in those halcyon days of From Here To Eternity no one had the bomb, lasers, or any conception of star wars, any one of which which would have given us an entirely different and graver shock at Pearl Harbor from which our industrial base could not have saved us.
Which brings us to your second paragraph, can you absolutely guarantee that china will not invent and deploy some weapons system, possibly space based, which changes the entire equation? You are right, for some time to come we will out invent them, but will we enjoy a monopoly? The NY Times article describes the extraordinary strides they are making in R and D. I am old enough to remember how shocked we were that a backward Soviet Union could first surprise us with the atomic bomb and then with Sputnik. We had guarantees then too but our strategic advantage, far clearer than we now enjoy over China, was neutralized twice in one decade and we were utterly blindsided.
As to your first paragraph, I simply repeat my admonition not to assume straight line projections. I have cited in my quotes of the Times article, to be intellectually honest, some of the factors that could bring down the Chinese economy. But I think we both must admit that there are forces which could bring our own down, the Chinese extraordinary growth in manufacturing itself being one of them, which could distort our straight line projections.
I really do not think, having read your last paragraph, that we are out of sync. I would add that we must consider the geo political muscle of a nation which will probably be the world's foremost trader soon enough. At that point, assuming some straight line projections, they will be the world's second economy. They have a government which defies definition and is therefore highly unpredictable and could launch a star wars Pearl Harbor if some nerve we do not understand is touched. Meanwhile, we can count on them building alliances against us to suck up much of the world's natural resources and shape markets which in turn will affect our strategic position. I ask you only to consider their moves on oil and the mischief they can make with Venezuela. I just had a builder here in Germany tell me that the price of plywood has gone up 30% because of the demand in China.
These are real concerns for Presidents and economists beyond the war gaming which engages the Pentagon.
"a backward Soviet Union"
Um, not all that backward. Remotely. Part of urban European civilization for centuries. But still -
"surprise us with the atomic bomb"
They stole it, with treason help.
"was neutralized twice in one decade"
Hardly. SAC could have turned the USSR into a smoking irradiated ruin inside of 2 hours at any time in the first half of the cold war, with minimal loss to ourselves in retaliation. But (1) even that cost wouldn't have been worth it (2) we don't do such things (3) we won anyway and (4) we did not fully understand at the time just how far ahead of them we were.
As for projections, I'm being quite generous in the above estimates, and 20 years is not a long time in economic terms. Also, I wonder if you've thought much about the absolute figures I gave. For the next generation, even counting things being much better at the end of the period than at the begining, the average person in China is going to live on $200 a month. Try it, and see how much you have left for big ticket acquisitions. There is a reason US defense spending dwarfs China's.
The next big thing in weaponry, whatever it is, will be made in the labs of US government agencies, major universities, or commercial contractors. Yes I can bank on it. On track record, on first principles, on all the science I know is in the pipeline already. Civilizations aren't made out of spins of a roulette wheel, they are vastly broader and deeper things than that.
What is mostly going to happen in China over the next generation, is a lot of people are going to work very hard and lift themselves out of grinding poverty to something approaching a comfortable middle class existence, provided they continue to work very hard and their leaders don't do anything reckless. Their leaders, having a deep case of the evil stupids and delusions of grandeur, may very well do any number of reckless things.