Imagine the Antonov 225 reeingined with engines used on the 777. I bet only four engines would be necessary.
Posted on 03/20/2005 9:16:53 PM PST by Paleo Conservative
The early, and somewhat unexpected, success of the Airbus A380F freighter program could prompt a major rethinking of the way the cargo aircraft market, estimated to be worth around $ 130 billion over the next 20 years, will develop.
There is one area where Airbus and Boeing broadly agree: At current rates of growth, the world will need around 725 new all-cargo aircraft by 2023. Both companies also agree that widebody aircraft will represent about 60% of the all-freighter fleet by 2022, and only disagree slightly on how this number will be reached -- with Boeing suggesting more passenger-to-freighter conversions, rather than all-new cargo aircraft sales.
But the emergence of an aircraft with a significantly larger payload capacity than is currently available -- although the proposed Boeing 747 Advanced Freighter would be a direct competitor -- could radically change the dynamics at the top end of the market. The development of the A380F and other new freighters able to carry well over 100 tonnes could cut deep swathes into the market for intermediate-sized cargo aircraft. A shift to larger aircraft
One early indication that the new aircraft could radically alter long-established forecasts might be found in the January 2005 announcement that UPS would buy 10 A380Fs -- but at the cost of cutting its 90-aircraft order of A300-600Fs to 53. The UPS A380F freighters will be used mainly on its routes to China, where business is brisk and slots are limited: In the quarter ended September 30, 2004, UPS recorded a 29% rise in shipments out of Asia compared with the previous year.
This strategy for replacing large fleets of medium-sized widebody freighters with fewer, but bigger and newer, types was heralded in 2004. According to Frederick Smith, chairman of Federal Express and another A380F customer: "Rather than flying multiple daily MD-11 aircraft between FedEx Express hubs in Europe, North America, and Asia, FedEx can operate a single A380 aircraft on those routes."
The question of the impact of larger aircraft on the overall cargo market is pertinent for two reasons. There is an urgent requirement to replace older generations of freighter types such as the Boeing 707, McDonnell Douglas DC-8, and Boeing 747-100 as they reach the end of their economic life, and this has meant many cargo airlines are currently deciding their future aircraft purchase strategies. The decision has been made even more pressing by the current dramatic growth in the Asia air freight sector. Overall freight traffic growth on transpacific routes was more than 10% last year.
The movement toward replacing current aircraft types with something larger has been evident for some time. Narrow-body Boeing 707s and McDonnell Douglas DC-8s are being replaced by widebody twins such as the A300/A310 and Boeing 767. Older 747-100 freighters and DC-10s are giving way to 747-400s, MD-11s, and now the A380F.
This growing requirement for big new freighters has been good news for Boeing: At the beginning of 2005 Boeing still had 23 outstanding orders for its new-build 747F line, from a total order book of 126. Big business for Boeing
The A380F is not the only new high-capacity freighter on the market. Last November, Boeing announced the launch of its 777 Freighter, with a revenue payload capability of 101 tonnes and able to accommodate 27 standard pallets (244 X 318 cm) on its main deck and 10 in its lower cargo hold. It will be able to fly 9,630 km with a full payload.
The company is also in talks with customers on the possible launch of a 747 Advanced Freighter, featuring a stretched 747 fuselage, more composite parts, a redesigned wing, new engines, an extended range, and a payload of 134 tonnes.
If all these huge new freighters do make it to market they will provide substantial increases in capacity, which could more than match the projected increase in demand for new air freight services, currently estimated at 6% a year.
Alongside these new high-capacity dedicated freighters, the Boeing 747-400 passenger-to-freighter conversion business is also starting to gather steam. Early Boeing 747-100Fs and 200Fs are coming to the end of their economic lives or are failing to meet the growing list of environmental restrictions at airports around the world, especially in Europe. There now exists a potential market for 500 747-400 conversions; Boeing has already received over 20 orders for this work, named B747-400SF (Special Freighter), which it has subcontracted to Taikoo (Xiamen) Aircraft Engineering, or TAECO.
The Special Freighter will have an estimated capacity of 113,490 kg and a range of 7,600 km. So far, Cathay Pacific Airways, Korean Air Lines, and All Nippon Airlines have all placed orders for them. Cathay Pacific will receive the first of the type in December this year.
Israel's Bedek IAI is also offering 747-400 freighter conversions -- and with sudden competition for high-capacity freighters driving costs down to less than $ 60 million for a 747-400 conversion, cargo airlines could well be tempted to trade up beyond their initial replacement plans -- especially as business is currently so buoyant. Capacity on the rise
All of this points to a sudden surge in capacity, which is fine when the market is generally healthy, as now, but could lead to damaging levels of overcapacity at some time in the near future. But whatever happens, air cargo aircraft are going to grow substantially in size.
According to Boeing: "Widebody freighters, currently 44% of the fleet, will. . . end the period (2023) making up 60% of the fleet. The number of widebody airplanes will nearly triple. The shift toward widebody freighters will result in a fleet-wide increase in average freighter airplane payload. In many cases, operators such as express carriers prefer medium widebodies as a replacement for retiring standard-body freighters. Thus, the share of standard-body freighters will decrease from 56% to 40% over the next two decades."
The fastest growing market of all for air freight is in IT goods from Asia to Europe and North America, representing 40% of the total shipments by tonnage and nearly 75% by value, according to Airbus. These new high-capacity freighters will open up new services on Pacific routes and consolidate existing business. More cities will be joined by "next day" freight services, and door-to-door delivery times will be substantially reduced.
The next few months will be an important indication of which way the air cargo market is likely to head. If Airbus increases its A380F sales figures, this could indicate a movement toward further consolidation of the fleet at the expense of intermediate aircraft, and, ironically, a further positive indication to Boeing of the growing market for high-capacity cargo types. CONTRASTING VIEWS OF THE 2023 WORLD FREIGHTER FLEET
Note: This table may be divided and additional information on a particular entry may appear on more than one screen2004-2023Less than 50 tonnes,40-65 tonnes,Cargo fleetTotal numberstandard bodymedium widebodyBoeing3,4561,3831,002Less than 30 tonnes,30-60 tonnes,small jet freightersregional freighters(mainly U.S.(707F, DC-8F,narrowbodies)A300-600F)Airbus3,6169731,2722004-2023More thanCargo fleet65 tonnes, largeBoeing1,07130-80 tonnes,More than 80 tonnes,long-range freighterslarge freighters(Combis, 767-300F,(MD-11, 747, A380)DC-10-30/40)Airbus375996 FREIGHTER AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES AND VALUE ESTIMATES2004-2023 deliveriesTotal numberNew aircraftValue, $ billionsBoeing2,940724139Airbus3,139727129 IATA INTERNATIONAL CARGO FORECASTS,* 2004-2008Average annualRoute area2004 growthgrowth rate 2004-2008North Atlantic8.5%4.8%Transpacific10.3%4.6%Europe-Asia/Pacific11.4%7.0%Europe-Middle East7.8%6.1%Europe-Africa7.4%5.6%Within Asia/Pacific12.0%6.1%Within Europe7.8%5.7%Within Latin America/Caribbean4.4%3.7%Total international10.1%6.0%
* Freight tonnes. THE FIVE FASTEST GROWING FREIGHT MARKETS OVER 2004-2008Freight in 2003,Average annualthousands of tonnesgrowth rate 2004-2008China-Netherlands36.923.0%India-Sri Lanka11.221.7%Philippines-Thailand26.218.2%China-Malaysia35.016.2%Austria-China5.114.6%
Source: Freight Forecast 2004-2008, IATA. LARGE FREIGHTER COMPARISONSTypeRange, kmPayload, kgA38010,400150,000747-400F8,149105,000An-124-1004,500120,000MD-11F7,40091,670777F9,630105,000
Source: Jane's Information Group and Air Charter International. A380F CUSTOMERSOperatorNumberOptionsDeliveryEmirates 2102008FedEx10202008ILFC 5 02008UPS10102009
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This will cut the legs from under the A380-700. There's no way Airbus will be able to shrink the A380 to 470 seats and be economically viable. The shrink would be too heavy. Also if the 747 production lines can be kept open, there's always the possibility that Boeing could do a more extensive stretch in the future.
I was wondering, is there much demand for the additional upper deck passenger space on the special freighter conversion? It would seem to me that certain high value cargoes could be accompanied by technicians on the same flight.
I think the 747 Advanced program will primarily be for new freighter aircraft. This could allow for a full-loaded 747 Advanced freighter to fly from LAX or SFO directly to Tokyo, Seoul (Inchon), Beijing and Shanghai non-stop on a full load, for starters. Also, because the 747 Advanced freighter can easily accommodate oversized loads, it has a big advantage over the A380-800F, which was designed specifically for palletized cargo.
Airbus makes damned fine airplanes...so long as the tail fins stay on.
BTTT
Imagine the Antonov 225 reeingined with engines used on the 777. I bet only four engines would be necessary.
I wonder if this was larger than the Spruce Goose ?
By gross weight it is. I think the Spruce Goose still has the record for the longest wingspan.
I just got word today the 787 Dreamliner won't be as Swoopy as first thought. Too much drag,....Bummer
Bing for bookmark
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