Jim Wilson/The New York Times
Passengers on the Alameda/Oakland Ferry, crossing the San Francisco Bay. The Coast Guard says a terror attack on a ferry could kill hundreds.
Posted on 03/20/2005 8:12:08 PM PST by neverdem
WASHINGTON, March 19 - It takes a fraction of a second for an explosion to rip open a hole below the waterline of a ferry carrying hundreds of passengers. In the next instant, a deck tears off and the blast bellows inside the hull, causing structural beams to give way.
A terrorist strike is playing out with disastrous consequences. But so far, at least, the plot is confined to a desktop computer at the Coast Guard headquarters here.
To improve security on the nation's commuter ferries, the Coast Guard has been trying to answer some critical questions: How much explosive force would be needed to sink a big ferry? Which screening methods are most effective? How many vehicles and passengers should be screened to create a deterrent?
"In terms of the probability of something happening, the likelihood of it succeeding and the consequences of if it occurring, ferries come out at the very high end," said Joseph J. Myers, a Coast Guard risk analyst.
While there have been no reported threats to a ferry in the United States, officials say, the Federal Bureau of Investigation reported at least seven incidents last year involving surveillance of ships in Washington State, said Representative Jay Inslee, Democrat of Washington.
Coast Guard officials say nearly 400 passengers would be likely to die if a large ferry were attacked, more than twice the number of deaths expected from an airplane crash. Officials worry that ferries may be attacked because they often carry cars and large trucks that could hide bombs, they run on a schedule and they are screened less intensely than airplanes.
There have been attacks on ferries elsewhere: a 1,050-passenger ferry sank in the Philippines in February 2004 after a bomb, consisting of eight pounds of TNT packed into a television, killed more than 115 people.
More than 700 ferries operate nationally, carrying 175 million passengers a year. But the Coast Guard study included only 62, those carrying at least 500 passengers and thus seen as high risk (some carry as many as 6,000).
Officials obtained designs from some of the biggest ships - they would not say precisely which, but they studied ships that operate in Seattle, New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Michigan and Alaska - and then hired ABS Consulting, a company based in Houston. They tested how different types of attacks would play out, including explosives carried aboard in backpacks and a blast caused by an approaching boat. Most devastating would be a large bomb hidden inside a truck.
Engineers entered data into a computer about the damage created by the initial explosion, the impact of debris and any resulting fires or flooding. The engineers are also trying to estimate casualties in different sections of ships and are testing different blast locations to see which are most susceptible. That information could help determine where vehicles are parked on a ferry.
"Understand the threats, the vulnerability and the consequences," said David A. Walker, a risk engineer at ABS Consulting. "Then use that to inform our decisions about how we manage the risk."
Since July, operators of large ferries have been required to inspect a certain minimum percentage of vehicles and passengers, with that number changing based on any rise or reduction in Homeland Security alert levels. But the ferry systems can choose their inspection methods: the Washington State Ferries, the nation's largest system, uses bomb-sniffing dogs, while the Jamestown-Scotland Ferry in Virginia relies on security officers.
Homeland Security officials are assessing which screening works best. In Cape May, N.J., a $750,000 X-ray device known as Z Backscatter was installed; it creates photolike images highlighting any explosive materials in a vehicle.
While they would not disclose whether dogs or machines were more effective at finding explosives, officials did say that in a one-month test last year, they found that a scan by the machine required about 34 seconds per vehicle, compared with 24 seconds for checks by the dogs, a difference that could create delays if traffic was heavy. The machine also took up room that might not be available at many ferry terminals.
"What can we put in place that keeps the ferry running?" said Commander Cynthia Stowe, chief of the Coast Guard vessel and facility security division.
The final piece of the study is perhaps the most difficult. If only a small percentage of vehicles and passengers will be screened - as is now the policy - what should that number be to have a reasonable likelihood of deterring a terrorist attack? What matters is not whether the screening procedures actually work, officials say. Cameras that are not even regularly monitored or an untrained dog inspecting cars might still deter a terrorist. The critical variable here is whether a potential terrorist would be intimidated by the security in place.
"You are trying to scare someone," said Newton Howard, a professor at the George Washington University Center for Advanced Defense Studies, which is helping answer deterrence questions for the Coast Guard. "It is a matter of attempting to figure out what is the maximum risk this person is willing to take."
For ferry riders, current security measures are not very intrusive. On the Staten Island Ferry, security guards monitor crowds in the terminal buildings and a bomb-sniffing dog monitors the ferryboat entrance.
"It is better to err on the side of caution," said Gene Grubbes, who commutes from his home on Staten Island to his job at a photo lab in Manhattan. But some ferry operators worry that more screening will be mandated, which could push up operating costs or delay boarding.
"Any effort to bring some science into security rather than flying by the seat of your pants is a good thing," said Scott Davis, safety systems manager at the Washington State Ferries. "But there is also some trepidation, as an owner and operator, given what the results might be on our operation. Where will this end up?"
Jim Wilson/The New York Times
Passengers on the Alameda/Oakland Ferry, crossing the San Francisco Bay. The Coast Guard says a terror attack on a ferry could kill hundreds.
Once again, gay pride takes center stage...
We can't even protect our Terris from Democrats...
Immediately after 9/11 the security presence at the local (Washington State) ferries was fairly substantial, but in a few months time it vanished altogether. I've noticed that it's starting to pick up again.
The story had a very wide graphical aid, laying out estimated cost and casualties from 15 types of attack. It was so wide that I didn't include it with the post. The following is that graphical aid's URL:
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2005/03/16/national/050316_nat_HOMEch2.gif
We could see a death toll well over 100 people and very serious damage to the cruise ship indeed.
Exactly!
Dec. 14, 1999 Ressam arrested near Seattle (Millenium bomb plot)
Ressam says that on the morning of Dec. 14, he called Meskini and told him he would be in Seattle that evening. That afternoon, he took a ferry from Victoria, B.C., to Port Angeles, Wash., with more than 100 pounds of explosives stashed in the wheelbed of the trunk of his rental car. His accomplice, Dahoumane, did not travel with him.
At Victoria, U.S. immigration pre-clearance agents were mildly suspicious of Ressam. They made him open his trunk, but saw nothing. He presented his fake Canadian passport, and the computer check turned up no previous convictions or warrants in the name of Benni Noris. Ressam drove his rental car, with its concealed bomb, onto the ferry heading for Washington state. Upon his arrival at Port Angeles, a U.S. customs agent became suspicious of his hesitant answers to her questions, and she asked for identification. Agents began searching the car. As they discovered the explosive materials -- which they at first took to be drugs -- in the trunk of the car, Ressam tried to run away. He was caught and arrested.
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