Posted on 03/18/2005 7:14:19 AM PST by Alex Marko
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Senior Bush administration officials have warned in recent weeks that al Qaeda is regrouping for another massive attack, its agents bent on acquiring nuclear, chemical or biological weapons in a nightmare scenario that could dwarf the horror of Sept. 11.
But in Pakistan and Afghanistan — where Osama bin Laden and his chief deputy are believed to be hiding — intelligence agents, politicians and a top U.S. general paint a different picture.
They say a relentless military crackdown, the arrests last summer of several men allegedly involved in plans to launch attacks on U.S. financial institutions, and the killing in September of a top Pakistani al Qaeda suspect wanted in a number of attacks — including the 2002 killing of Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl and two failed assassination attempts against President Gen. Pervez Musharraf — have effectively decapitated al Qaeda.
Because of the secretive and underground nature of cells that operate throughout the world, it cannot be known for certain what effect the damage done to al Qaeda in its home territory has had on operations elsewhere.
Pakistani intelligence agents told The Associated Press that it has been months since they picked up any “chatter” from suspected al Qaeda men, and longer still since they received any specific intelligence on the whereabouts of bin Laden or any plans to launch a specific attack.
“We have broken the back of al Qaeda,” Interior Minister Aftab Khan Sherpao said last month in a speech in Peshawar, the capital of the frontier province on the border with Afghanistan. Musharraf added last week that his government had “eliminated the terrorist centers” in the Waziristan tribal region and elsewhere.
“We have broken their communication system. We have destroyed their sanctuaries,” the president told reporters. “They are not in a position to move in vehicles. They are unable to contact their people. They are on the run.”
A senior official in Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency told AP he couldn’t remember the last time the agency got a strong lead on top-level al Qaeda fighters.
Pakistan’s optimism seems to be backed by senior U.S. military officials in the region.
Maj. Gen. Eric Olson, the No. 2 American commander in Afghanistan, said he had seen nothing to indicate that al Qaeda was attempting to get its hands on nuclear or biological weapons.
There is “no evidence that they’re trying to acquire a terrorist weapon of that type and, frankly, I don’t believe that they are regrouping,” he told AP in a Feb. 25 interview.
“I think the pressure on them here, the pressure on them in Pakistan, the pressure on them in Iraq, is pretty great and it makes very difficult for them to operate,” Olson added.
The skeptical assessments from officials here fly in the face of warnings out of Washington, where President Bush is pushing Congress to approve a $419 billion defense budget for 2006.
The Homeland Security Department late last month issued a classified bulletin to officials that bin Laden was enlisting his top operative in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, to plan potential attacks on the United States.
But Sherpao scoffed at such warnings.
“That is simply out of the question,” he said of al Qaeda’s ability to acquire weapons of mass destruction, adding that any al Qaeda leader who has escaped arrest was “more worried about their own safety.”
I almost see a bit of reverse pyschology working here...
In order for anyone to fully appreciate the destruction of the Al Qaeda network, the Bush administration has to proclaim from the rooftops that they are still a major threat. Invariably, people will do whatever they can to disprove Bush and so data and intelligence emerges that essentially says: Bush policy worked.
Wounded animals are dangerous. Time to kill the beast.
Thanks for the post. We can hope it is true, but we are tiptoeing in the dark here. Need to watch our backs.
" “We have broken the back of al Qaeda,” Interior Minister Aftab Khan Sherpao said last month in a speech in Peshawar, the capital of the frontier province on the border with Afghanistan. Musharraf added last week that his government had “eliminated the terrorist centers” in the Waziristan tribal region and elsewhere.“We have broken their communication system. We have destroyed their sanctuaries,” the president told reporters. “They are not in a position to move in vehicles. They are unable to contact their people. They are on the run.”
A senior official in Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency told AP he couldn’t remember the last time the agency got a strong lead on top-level al Qaeda fighters.
Pakistan’s optimism seems to be backed by senior U.S. military officials in the region.
Maj. Gen. Eric Olson, the No. 2 American commander in Afghanistan, said he had seen nothing to indicate that al Qaeda was attempting to get its hands on nuclear or biological weapons.
There is “no evidence that they’re trying to acquire a terrorist weapon of that type and, frankly, I don’t believe that they are regrouping,” he told AP in a Feb. 25 interview.
“I think the pressure on them here, the pressure on them in Pakistan, the pressure on them in Iraq, is pretty great and it makes very difficult for them to operate,” Olson added."
That desperate wounded animal strike took place on 9/11. If failed to save radical Islam from death. Democracy is overtaking it.
My criterion for success is maybe a bit different than yours. Yes, the arrival of democratic regimes in the ME is GREAT news. It is not done yet. When Egypt replaces Mubarak under a real, independent election, then that will certainly be a milestone for ME democracy. For my part, OBL's head on a platter would serve to define the end of Al-quaida.
Nice tag line btw.
Here's an Anna List. Being inteligent or employed have no effect on enjoying it.
That’s the definition of success that the administration focused so hard to avoid from day one. Anyone can be hidden. If found, anyone can be replaced. Even if the organization of al-Qaeda no longer exists, it has no hard assesses so it can morph into anything else.
We declared war on “terrorism” and the support of terrorism rather than any of the above for that reason. It wasn’t evasion, weakness or any other kind of error. It was the root of the problem, and as we spread freedom and democracy among its former safe havens and roots, we are defeating it.
I agree, we’re not done yet.
Looks like we should both pay attention to our spell checker. Too bad I only had the text version.
Anna shows an unusual and difficult tennis return in #4.
Al Qaeda has not achieved any of its strategic objectives.
It now has a major credibility problem. It must strike in order to keep the revolution alive the minds of its followers. If it does not, it knows that it may pass into obsurity.
I'm certain that they are going crazy trying to find a WMD of some kind in order to make a big splash. It's intelligence organization has been compromised, so complex operational planning is difficult. One big bomb or gas strike could solve this problem and stop the Arab feeling of helplessness that is the real enemy of Caliphate they hope to establish. They are very dangerous because they must strike.
I've kind of wondered if this may be behind the reduced efforts in Afganistan to find OBL. As a boxed in figure head, the organization may be easier to identify.
In order for anyone to fully appreciate the destruction of the Al Qaeda network, the Bush administration has to proclaim from the rooftops that they are still a major threat. Invariably, people will do whatever they can to disprove Bush and so data and intelligence emerges that essentially says: Bush policy worked.
I’m sure she’s not short of people willing to try her links.
I'll let you know in a week or so how many FReepers used those photo links.
Like you, I am well aware of the administration's efforts to "define success." Indeed the confirmed death of OBL would not be the end of Al-quaida. I do believe that the death or capture of OBL would have immense propaganda value for us, even if the organization were to continue - mainly because of the nature of Arab society (honor/shame factors). That is why I remain convinced that it is an important milestone even if the administration downplays the significance.
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