Posted on 03/15/2005 4:21:11 PM PST by NYorkerInHouston
Republican Congressman from Maryland spoke on oil depletion to the Congress on Monday, March 14. The link is to Energy Bulletin but the original can be found by searching http://thomas.loc.gov/
Bump for a very interesting read.
Nuclear energy cannot yet be considered as a large scale substitute for fossil fuels because it isa still unclear wht to do with the waste. Figure out that problem and you've got something going.
The Oil Reserve Fallacy: Proven reserves are not a measure of future supply.
Oil reserve history timeline
• 1857 -- Romania produces 2,000 barrels of oil, marking the beginning of the modern oil industry.
• 1859, Aug. 25 -- Edwin L. Drake strikes oil in Titusville, Pennsylvania
• 1862 -- First commercial oil production in Canada, also 1863 in Russia.
• 1862 -- Most widely used lamp fuel (camphene) taxed in US at aprox. $1 a gallon; kerosene taxed at 10 cent per gallon. (Kovarik, 1997)
• 1863 -- John D. Rockefeller starts the Excelsior Refinery in Cleveland, Ohio.
• 1879 -- US Geological Survey formed in part because of fear of oil shortages.
• 1882 -- Institute of Mining Engineers estimates 95 million barrels of oil remain. With 25 milliion barrels per year output, "Some day the cheque will come back indorsed no funds, and we are approaching that day very fast," Samuel Wrigley says. (Pratt, p. 124).
• 1901 -- Spindletop gusher in Texas floods US oil market.
• 1906 -- Fears of an oil shortage are confirmed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Representatives of the Detroit, Board of Commerce attended hearings in Washington and told a Senate hearing that car manufacturers worried "not so much [about] cost as ... supply."
• 1919, Scientific American notes that the auto industry could no longer ignore the fact that only 20 years worth of U.S. oil was left. "The burden falls upon the engine. It must adapt itself to less volatile fuel, and it must be made to burn the fuel with less waste.... Automotive engineers must turn their thoughts away from questions of speed and weight... and comfort and endurance, to avert what ... will turn out to be a calamity, seriously disorganizing an indispensable system of transportation."
• 1920 -- David White, chief geologist of USGS, estimates total oil remaining in the US at 6.7 billion barrels. "In making this estimate, which included both proved reserves and resources still remaining to be discovered, White conceded that it might well be in error by as much as 25 percent." (Pratt, p. 125. Emphasis added).
• 1925 -- US Commerce Dept. says that while U.S. oil production doubled between 1914 and 1921, it did not kept pace with fuel demand as the number of cars increased.
• 1928 -- US analyst Ludwell Denny in his book "We Fight for Oil" noted the domestic oil shortage and says international diplomacy had failed to secure any reliable foreign sources of oil for the United States. Fear of oil shortages would become the most important factor in international relations, even so great as to force the U.S. into war with Great Britain to secure access to oil in the Persian Gulf region, Denny said.
• 1926 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 4.5 billion barrels remain.
• 1930 -- Some 25 million American cars are on the road, up from 3 million in 1918.
• 1932 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 10 billion barrels of oil remain.
• 1944 -- Petroleum Administrator for War estimates 20 billion barrelsof oil remain.
• 1950 -- American Petroleum Institute says world oil reserves are at 100 billion barrels. (See Jean Laherre, Forecast of oil and gas supply)
• 1956 -- M.King Hubbard predicts peak in US oil production by 1970.
• 1966 - 1977 -- 19 billion barrels added to US reserves, most of which was from fields discovered before 1966. (As M.A. Adelman notes: "These fields were no gift of nature. They were a growth of knowledge, paid for by heavy investment.")
• 1973 -- Oil price spike; supply restrictions due to Midde Eastern politics.
• 1978 -- Petroleos de Venezuela announces estimated unconventional oil reserve figure for Orinoco heavy oil belt at between three and four trillion barrels. (More recent public estimates are in the one trillion range).
• 1979 -- Oil price spike; supply restrictions due to Midde Eastern politics.
• 1980 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 648 billion barrels
• 1993 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 999 billion barrels
• 2000 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 1016 billion barrels.
Solar power is not a practical "answer" to anything. Read on...
Where your connection to the electric utility grid is either non-existent or problematic, solar cells can offer a practical solution. However, when used as a supplement to, or replacement for the grid, there is simply no rational economic way to justify the use of photovoltaic cells...
| ref. | source | loss (%) |
power (per m2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solar flux |
|
1,368 W | |
| Atmospheric losses |
|
752 W | |
|
|
Night times losses |
|
376 W |
| Solar angle losses |
|
188 W | |
| Cell conversion losses |
|
22.6 W | |
| DC®AC inverter losses |
|
20.3 W | |
|
|
Net efficiency |
|
1.5% |
|
|
Net energy (per m2 per day) |
|
0.5 kWh |
| Value of energy (per m2 per day) |
|
4.3 ¢ | |
| Solar panel cost (per m2) |
|
$530 | |
|
|
Payback period |
|
33 years |
|
--Boot Hill
There's a world of difference between the peak oil theory first advanced by Dr. Hubert in 1956 and the peak oil scam being run by Matt Savinar today. The former has a grain of truth to it while the latter is 100% leftist BS.
--Boot Hill
• 2002 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 1025 billion barrels
That's a political problem, not a technical problem. It's easy enough to solve technically. You can bury it in my backyard if you want.
Well Congressman Bartlett is no lefty or liberal http://www.issues2000.org/House/Roscoe_Bartlett.htm
and he's the one who quoted Matt Savinar. Like it or not peak oil is imminent if not already here. Hopefully our government will be able to take some actions to reduce the hardships that will be coming.
If you search Boot Hill's postings, he posted an excellent bio of Savinar a day or two ago.
There's at least 40 years of light crude in the proven reserves, and another 20 or more in the heavy, shale, and tarsand deposits that are provable, and even more in the unknowns that the future holds.
From Energy Bulletin - BP: World oil and gas reserves still growing at healthy pace.-snip-Published on 21 Jun 2004
Oil & Gas Journal-snip-
"Despite those who say we are about to run out of oil and gas, the figures in the review confirm there is no shortage of reserves. Production in some provinces may have peaked, but this is no reason for current high prices," he said.
Over 40 years supply
The new data estimate total world oil reserves at 1.15 trillion bbl, about 10% higher than previously reported for 2002. Additionally, global oil reserves have increased almost continuously over the past 30 years, BP officials said. World reserves now represent 41 years of production at current rates. By comparison, in 1980 reserves equivalent to only 29 years of production were known. The world has now produced some 80% of the oil reserves that were known in 1980; yet exploration success and application of technology has led to current reserves that are 70% higher, BP said. The company has published its statistical review of world energy for 53 years.
Looking at natural gas, BP reported global reserves of 176 trillion cu m, 13% higher than those previously reported for 2002. The company said that gas reserves have more than doubled since 1980 as a result of exploration, new technology, and the "unstranding" of gas reserves through liquefied natural gas and other technologies.
BP Group Chief Executive John Browne emphasized that oil and gas are not being depleted at an accelerated rate. "The data [illustrate] the continued growth in reserve volumes across the world," Browne wrote in the review's introduction. "At current levels of consumption, there are sufficient reserves to meet oil demand for some 40 years and to meet natural gas demand for well over 60 years."
He added that there appears to be considerable scope for proved reserves and production to keep rising in Russia and elsewhere. "Reserves, globally, have grown over time, and it is clear that the issue of energy security, which has been so prominent over the last year, is driven not by a physical shortage of supply but by the challenges of ensuring, in a world where demand and supply are not colocated, that there will be sufficient traded oil and gas to meet rising demand."
Don't forget that we can always make the products we now refine from crude, and in the not too distant future at equal or even less cost.
The figure of 40 years of light crude and 20 years in heavy and other types assumes that we could pump these fields at any arbitrary rate we wished. The reality is that the rate of production in any given field is determined by the size of the field and the degree to which it has been depleted.
Heck, there will probably be a little oil production in 100 years, maybe 200 years as well. Peaking does not deny that and in no way says that we about to run out, but the prodigious production rate of 82-83 million barrels a day will soon be declining. ASPO expects the peak to occur in 2007 with a decline in production to 70 million barrels a day in 2020.
| 8 | “Congressman Bartlett is no lefty or liberal” |
Merely finding and "R" appended after a politician's name is no guarantee that he or she is not a damn fool, and after looking at the links you provided, Congressman Bartlett appears to be just that, a damn fool, for taking anything that Matt Savinar says as being anything at all credible.
Both you and Congressman Bartlett clearly need a primer on just who this whacko, Matt Savinar, actually is and offer the following...
MATT SAVINAR...All-in-all, on any subject dealing with energy, petroleum, engineering, economics or government, Matt Savinar has all the credibility of a Michael Moore lecturing a group of Marines on the meaning duty, honor, country.
Matthew D. Savinar is a 28 year old self-declared expert (but with zero credentials), in the fields of geology, petroleum, engineering and the energy industry. He was born and raised in northern California and attended the ultra-leftist UC Davis, where he graduated with a degree in Political Science. He then attended UC Hastings Law School. In 2003 he was admitted to the California bar.At the ripe old age of 26, he ceased the practice of law and presently works in a restaurant in Santa Rosa, California, and is the author of a book about "peak oil" entitled "The Oil Age is Over" (not even available on Amazon). He appears as a guest on such "respected" and "credible" radio talk shows as Art Bell's Coast-to-Coast-AM and the Whitley Strieber's Unknown Country. Matt Savinar runs his "LifeAfterTheOilCrash" website for the primary purpose of hawking his book (at last report he has sold an astounding 755 copies) and selling subscriptions to his online magazine.
Matt Savinar is a thoroughly whacked out ultra-leftist that has written that the consequences of "peak oil" are the the inevitable and inescapable collapse of the entire civilized world and that...
- FReepers are a bunch of "knuckle draggers"
- The GWOT is all about oil.
- Nic Berg was assassinated by the CIA.
- President Bush would be assassinated by the CIA by last August. (Must be a reeeeal slow bullet!)
Both you and the Congressman should be ashamed for having given any credibility to such a whacked out, America-hating, leftist, psycho as Matt Savinar and his dooms day theory.
--Boot Hill
Well that speaks volumes!
Good grief, what a shock it was to wake up this morning and see that! Hope #13 straightens that out.
--Boot Hill
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.