Posted on 03/14/2005 8:30:35 AM PST by expat_panama
Last week the price of benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil came within pennies of its nominal record of $55.67 per barrel. The recent oil-price run-up has ignited concerns that the trend could take some steam out of America's robust economy, which has grown by more than 8.5 percent during the past two years. There were also fears that the recent WTI price spike, which reflected an increase of more than 20 percent from one month earlier and more than 50 percent from a year ago, could jeopardize last year's solid expansion of the global economy.
(Excerpt) Read more at washtimes.com ...
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He may have meant we've had nine oil price spikes over the same time span that we had ten recessions. Only problem was that most of those spikes came before expansions, and most recessions have happened after oil price dips or flat times.
IMHO there's just not enough of a correlation between oil and the gdp. OTOH, there's a really clear correlation between "doom-n-gloom" and democrats.
Yesterday I paid $2.34 a gallon for regular gas. Of course, this is California.
WASS. (we are so screwed)
Suncor to launch $10B Alberta oilsands project: report
Last Updated Mon, 14 Mar 2005 10:34:30 EST
CBC News
TORONTO - Suncor Energy will begin a $10 billion oilsands project in northern Alberta, a published report says Monday.
FROM CBC ARCHIVES: Alberta's oil economy
The Calgary-based company is set to file a regulatory application for the Voyageur project once markets close Monday, said the Globe and Mail.
The expansion in Fort McMurray's oilsands is part of a new oil boom, spurred by higher prices for crude oil.
The company's Voyageur project would add a third upgrader to its oilsands operations, boosting its daily capacity by 200,000 barrels.
FROM JAN. 20, 2005: Suncor says fire will cut oilsands production in half during repair period
Steven Williams, Suncor's executive vice-president of oilsands operations, told the Globe the project's $10-billion cost could make it the largest megaproject in Fort McMurray.
The company will submit its application to the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board and the province's Environment Ministry, said the report.
While the initial application deals only with the upgrader facility that turns thick bitumen into crude oil, the final project will include a new mining operation that feeds bitumen into the upgrader.
Crude futures were down 73 cents at $53.70 US in early trading in New York.
"We expect oil to remain above $40 US a barrel for the foreseeable future," Glenn MacNeill of Sentry Select Capital told CBC Newsworld.
Suncor shares were down $1.30 at $46.16 in morning trading on the TSX
Maybe just expanding the Y-axis would solve this.
We're doomed! Doomed I tell you! Pack up the bottled water!
:) Hehe!
| FINDING DEAL$ ON GA$OLINE: |
 12 Month National Average for Regular Unleaded by AAA.com |
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OPEC President: Likely to Raise Oil Output
Monday, March 14, 2005
STORIES
•OPEC: Oil Prices Will Stay High •OPEC Poised to Keep Supply Steady at $40 Level
OPEC will likely raise its output ceiling by 500,000 barrels a day if prices stay at present levels, Kuwaiti Oil Minister and OPEC president Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah said Monday.
Meanwhile, leading OPEC producer Saudi Arabia called for a modest increase in cartel supplies that could help ease oil prices from near-record highs.
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, speaking ahead of a Wednesday meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (search), said the group should lift supplies by 500,000 bpd, two percent, to 27.5 million bpd.
A 500,000 bpd increase in OPEC output quotas would not add much to supplies on the 83-million-bpd world market.
With OPEC already overshooting quotas by about 700,000 barrels a day, any such move would mostly have psychological effect by signaling that the organization is formally ready to pump more in an effort to regulate prices.
Prices have shot up by nearly 20 percent in the past five weeks to around $54 a barrel in New York — a little more than a dollar shy of all-time records — putting pressure on the 11-nation organization to cool the markets.
Basic economics 101.
Yeah. I understand that. Just injecting a little humor in.
Now let's all look at the price of a gallon of milk and water. Basic economics 101.
This, too, shall pass.
TORONTO - Suncor Energy will begin a $10 billion oilsands project in northern Alberta, a published report says Monday.
I actually did some work on the Suncor project as an intern. That was five years ago now, so the project's been in the works for quite a while. No doubt it has moved way beyond what I knew about it.
Other food for thought-
- The Pennsylvania Reserves are at about 80%. Those reserves are paraffin-based oils, though. They were desirable as lubricating oil stocks, but apparently you need a different type of refinery to handle them for fuel processing. Most of our refineries in the States do Light Sweet Crude (This is the crude futures you are familiar with). There's plenty of oil, but a lot of it is higher in sulfur content, which we can't handle well stateside either. Then we have ANWR, but I haven't looked into what types of oil we've got there. In the meantime, lots of money is going into biofuels and coal gasification, so I am told by a friend who is actively in the business. Short term we will continue to have issues, but the silver lining is that because the prices are higher for oil, we just might finally get our infrastructure to move ahead of where it was in the seventies.
- BTW, new pipelines are pretty pricey these days, folks. Current estimates run about US$1 million/mile, and that goes up when you hit urban centers.
- The Trans-Alaskan Pipeline was only designed for a life of twenty years. It is now over thirty years old, if my memory serves me. At some point, we're going to have to do some serious rebuilding.
- The new fellow who will head up the Department of Energy, a Mr. Bodman, is a ChemE who worked at MIT. He's got big plans in the energy arena, with lots of ideas regarding alternative refinement and expansion of nuclear power. Kudlow wrote a column on this. I'll see if I can dig it up.
- We're seeing a lot of funny stuff going on with the Liquefied Natural Gas market. Apparently the Russians shifted a lot of LNG sales to Japan instead of China. They literally turned a pipeline, so I am told. The interesting thing is that we are apparently getting LNG from Japan in exchange for the Alaskan crude.
Any statistician worth his salt will tell you that correlation does not equal causation. It's just as likely that boom times pushed up the price of oil and recessions pushed the price back down.
What this most reminds me of is the run up prior to the fall to sub $15 / barrel back during the late 1970s. As painful as that particular burst bubble might have been for folks in Houston, overall, it helped fuel the greatest peacetime economic expansion in US history. Today's prices have got quite the bubbly feel about them, IMHO. To me, that's good news.
You're screwed for now. When the oil price bubble bursts, they'll be screwed in Venezuela (more than they already are ...)
Oil and natural gas prices are hitting us hard. Energy is the blood of the world economy, and with prices this high, everyone who is tight on money gets even tighter. I can tell you that my discretionary spending is the lowest it has ever been in my adult life. It hits us here on the low end pretty hard. In the past, I have always been against the doomsday screamers who want us to run cars on jelly beans or whatever the fad fuel is. But now I'm behind them. I would love to see an alternative technology collapse the entire oil monopoly. I hope it happens in my lifetime.
No problem, although I can't see a hard relationship between gdp and oil at any scale-- probably because it mainly exists in the minds of the true pessimist. Well, sure the oil price as some effect, but so do things like the dot.com bust and 9/11.
The numbers are crunched from Freelunch.com, the BEA, etc. Interesting thing in the format is these gif files are weird; the big pic one uses a file size just a tad bigger the small pic.
BUT those MAROONS will keep driving their stupid-@ss hummers and suvs though.
I can't say that a rise of 15 cents per gallon over the past couple weeks would have much of an impact on me, since i drive a 10-gallon Toyota. The $1.50 more per week I pay in gas won't hurt. Even if the price were to rise $1 a gallon (highly unlikely) I would think i can survive that as well.
Nice links in post 6 -- thanks.
That we hang in there during some abysmally tough times and are only in times like this making a decent living?
That we buy durable goods, when we can afford them, or that the industry uses incredible amounts of steel, construction equipment, and fleets of vehicles?
No, I didn't think so.
I hope prices never collapse (again). That is a big part of the reason we are dependant on foreign oil.
As for those of you who have fled city living but drive for two hours to work in one, that is your choice. No one guaranteed anyone cheap fuel.
I pay $2.40 per gallon here, and my LPG costs went up around ten percent. OTOH, if my taxes come out low this year I'll be happy. For me taxes take a much bigger bite than energy.
Why is it that when taxes spike we don't start hearing about a 'tax crisis' and complaints about 'wind-fall profits' for the feds?
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